Cyclone Monica - Cat. 5

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#121 Postby cycloneye » Wed Apr 19, 2006 7:45 pm

IDQP0005
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: For immediate broadcast. Transmitters over western Cape York Peninsula
between Pormpuraaw and Mapoon are requested to use the Standard Emergency
Warning Signal.


TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 29
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 7:40am on Thursday the 20th of April 2006

A CYCLONE WARNING is current for communities on the western half of Cape York
Peninsula from Mapoon to Pormpuraaw.

A CYCLONE WATCH is current for Northern Territory coastal and island communities
between Groote Eylandt and Milingimbi including Elcho Island and Nhulunbuy.

At 7am EST, Tropical Cyclone Monica, Category 2, was centred over land near
latitude 13.7 south longitude 141.8 east, 40 kilometres south southeast of
Aurukun. The cyclone is moving west at about 10 km/hr.

The destructive core of Monica with gusts to 140 km/hr is expected to move off
the coast in the general vicinity of Cape Keerweer on this morning. The cyclone
is then expected to rapidly re-intensify.

Gales are occurring north to Weipa and south to Pormpuraaw.

Tropical Cyclone Monica is expected to move in a general westerly direction
across the Gulf of Carpentaria. Gales may develop about the Northern Territory
coast between Groote Eylandt and Milingimbi including Elcho Island and Nhulunbuy
during Friday.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Monica, Category 2, for 7am EST Thursday.
Central Pressure : 980 Hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 40 kilometres of
latitude 13.7 degrees south
longitude 141.8 degrees east
40 km south southeast of Aurukun
Recent Movement : West about 10 km/hr
Destructive winds : out to 50 kilometres from the centre
Maximum wind gusts : 140 kilometres per hour

Very heavy flooding rain will occur over the Peninsula today.
People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should continue to
take the appropriate measures and follow the advice given by authorities.

Coastal residents between Weipa and Cape Keerweer are specifically warned of the
dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the west coast of the Peninsula this
morning. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal
tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the
shoreline. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should
take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be
prepared to follow directions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do
so by the authorities.





People in the path of this cyclone should stay calm and remain in a secure
shelter while the destructive winds continue. Do not venture outside if you find
yourself in the eye of the cyclone - destructive winds from a different
direction could resume at any time. Listen to the advice and follow the
directions of Police or State Emergency Service personnel.

The next warning will be issued by 11 am Thursday.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.
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#122 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Apr 19, 2006 8:36 pm

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: For immediate broadcast. Transmitters over western Cape York Peninsula
between Pormpuraaw and Mapoon are requested to use the Standard Emergency
Warning Signal.


TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 30
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 11:20am on Thursday the 20th of April 2006

A CYCLONE WARNING is current for communities on the western half of Cape York
Peninsula from Mapoon to Pormpuraaw.

A CYCLONE WATCH is current for Northern Territory coastal and island communities
between Port Roper and Milingimbi including Groote Eylandt, Elcho Island and
Nhulunbuy.

At 10 am EST/ 9.30 am CST, Tropical Cyclone Monica, Category 2, was centred near
latitude 13.6 south longitude 141.5 east, 35 kilometres southwest of Aurukun.
The cyclone is moving west northwest around 10 km/hr.

The centre of Monica has moved off the coast between Aurukun and Cape Keerweer.
The cyclone is expected to re-intensify as it moves to the west northwest across
the Gulf of Carpentaria. Destructive wind gusts to 130 km/hr may redevelop about
the coast and adjacent inland during the afternoon.

Gales are occurring north to Mapoon and south to Pormpuraaw.

Gales may develop about the Northern Territory coast between Port Roper and
Milingimbi including Groote Eylandt, Elcho Island and Nhulunbuy late on Friday.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Monica, Category 2, for 10 am EST/9.30 am CST
Thursday.
Central Pressure : 985 Hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 30 kilometres of
latitude 13.6 degrees south
longitude 141.5 degrees east
35 km southwest of Aurukun
Recent Movement : west northwest about 10 km/hr
Destructive winds : may redevelop about the coast and adjacent inland during
the afternoon
Maximum wind gusts : 130 kilometres per hour

Very heavy flooding rain will occur over the Peninsula this afternoon.
People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should continue to
take the appropriate measures and follow the advice given by authorities.

With the cyclone moving away from the coast sea levels along the eastern Gulf of
Carpentaria coast north of Aurukun are no longer expected to exceed the highest
tide of the year.

Even though the cyclone is moving away from the Queensland coast people should
still take precautions and listen to the next advice to be issued at 2 pm/ 1.30



pm CST Thursday.

People between Port Roper and Milingimbi should consider what action they will
need to take if the cyclone threat increases and listen to the next advice at 2
pm EST/1.30 pm CST. If you are unsure about actions to be taken, information is
available from your local government or local Northern Territory Emergency
Service.

The next warning will be issued by 2 pm EST /1.30 CST Thursday.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.


MONICA HAS LEFT THE PENINSULA, NORTHERN TERRITORY PREPARES.
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Monica hangs a lefty

#123 Postby Rod Hagen » Thu Apr 20, 2006 1:12 am

The latest twist is another dogleg to the south. Which way next?


Image

Cheers

Rod
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#124 Postby P.K. » Thu Apr 20, 2006 4:51 am

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
Issued at 0730 UTC 20 APRIL 2006

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here,
and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

Corrected HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Tropical Cyclone Monica estimated within 15 nautical miles of 14.0 S
140.7 E moving WEST at 7 knots. Central pressure 980 hPa.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 80 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Sustained winds to 55 knots near centre increasing to 80 knots within 12 to 24
hours.
Winds increasing above 64 knots within 20 nautical miles of centre with very
high to phenomenal seas in 6 hours.
Winds above 48 knots within 40 nautical miles of centre with very rough to high
seas and moderate to heavy swell.
Winds above 34 knots within 80 nautical miles of centre with rough to very rough
seas and moderate swell.

1800 UTC 20 Apr: centre within 50 nautical miles of 13.8 S 139.7 E.
960 hPa. Winds to 75 knots near centre.
0600 UTC 21 Apr: centre within 120 nautical miles of 13.5 S 139.0 E.
950 hPa. Winds to 80 knots near centre.

REMARKS
Ships in the general area please transmit 3-hourly weather reports.



DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
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#125 Postby Rod Hagen » Thu Apr 20, 2006 5:44 am

And then west again, and now due north. (see map, above)

Mmm. Good name, Monica!

;-)

Cheers

Rod
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#126 Postby Squeako da Magnifico » Thu Apr 20, 2006 6:41 am

She has moved NE in the last 3 hours

TOP PRIORITY
FLASH TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 33
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 7:59pm on Thursday the 20th of April 2006

A CYCLONE WARNING has now been extended for coastal communities on western Cape
York Peninsula from Pormpuraaw to Weipa.

A CYCLONE WATCH is current for Northern Territory coastal and island communities
between Port Roper and Milingimbi including Groote Eylandt, Elcho Island and
Nhulunbuy.

At 7 pm EST/6.30 pm CST, Tropical Cyclone Monica, Category 2, was located near
latitude 13.7 south longitude 140.5 east, 140 kilometres west southwest of
Aurukun. The cyclone has recently turned to the north northeast.

The cyclone will continue to intensify overnight and is expected to start moving
towards the west early Friday morning. Destructive wind gusts to 130 km/hr may
occur on the coast between Pormpuraaw and Weipa overnight.

Gales may develop about the Northern Territory coast between Port Roper and
Milingimbi including Groote Eylandt, Elcho Island and Nhulunbuy early Saturday.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Monica, Category 2, for 7 pm EST/6.30 pm CST
Thursday.
Central Pressure : 975 Hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 30 kilometres of
latitude 13.7 degrees south
longitude 140.5 degrees east
140 km west southwest of Aurukun
Recent Movement : north northeast at 15 km/hr [during the past 3 hours]
Maximum wind gusts : 160 kilometres per hour

Areas of heavy rain will continue over the Peninsula overnight and may cause
some flooding.

People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should continue to
take the appropriate measures and follow the advice given by authorities.

Abnormally high tides are expected between Pormpuraaw and Weipa, but the sea
level should not exceed the highest tide of the year. Large waves are likely
along the beachfront.

People on the coast between Aurukun and Pormpuraaw should still take precautions
and listen to the next advice to be issued at 11 pm EST/ 10.30 pm CST Thursday.

People between Port Roper and Milingimbi should consider what action they will
need to take if the cyclone threat increases and listen to the next advice at 11


pm EST/10.30 pm CST. If you are unsure about actions to be taken, information is
available from your local government or local Northern Territory Emergency
Service.

The next warning will be issued by 11 pm EST/10.30 CST Thursday.
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#127 Postby P.K. » Thu Apr 20, 2006 7:50 am

TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20060420/1200Z
TCAC: DARWIN
TC: MONICA
NR: 14
PSN: S1348 E14024
MOV: NW 3KT
C: 970HPA
MAX WIND: 65KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 20/1800 S1339 E14010
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 75KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 21/0000 S1329 E13948
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 80KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 21/0600 S1311 E13929
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 85KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 21/1200 S1303 E13918
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 90KT
NXT MSG: 20060420/1800Z
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Weatherfreak000

#128 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Thu Apr 20, 2006 8:37 am

Almost back to Severe Status?
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#129 Postby P.K. » Thu Apr 20, 2006 11:38 am

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
Issued at 1330 UTC 20 APRIL 2006

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here,
and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone Monica estimated within 15 nautical miles of 13.8 S
140.4 E near stationary. Central pressure 980 hPa.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Sustained winds to 55 knots near centre increasing to 85 knots within 12 to 24
hours.
Winds increasing above 64 knots within 25 nautical miles of centre with very
high to phenomenal seas in 6 hours.
Winds above 48 knots within 50 nautical miles of centre with very rough to high
seas and moderate to heavy swell.
Winds above 34 knots within 90 nautical miles of centre with rough to very rough
seas and moderate swell.

0000 UTC 21 Apr: centre within 50 nautical miles of 13.5 S 139.8 E.
960 hPa. Winds to 75 knots near centre.
1200 UTC 21 Apr: centre within 120 nautical miles of 13.0 S 139.3 E.
945 hPa. Winds to 85 knots near centre.

REMARKS
Ships in the general area please transmit 3-hourly weather reports.



DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
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#130 Postby Rod Hagen » Thu Apr 20, 2006 12:41 pm

The track map now suggests its likely to become a 4, heading NW , putting it back closer to Ingrid's track.



Image

Its now being covered by Darwin rather than the Qld BOM site - http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/nt/cyclone/

Cheers

Rod
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#131 Postby no advance » Thu Apr 20, 2006 12:45 pm

I think the spin of the cyclone near land caused her to move south temporarily. Am I right?
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#132 Postby MiamiensisWx » Thu Apr 20, 2006 12:52 pm

IDQP0005
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: For immediate broadcast. The Standard Emergency Warning Signal is NO
LONGER REQUIRED at this time.


TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 35
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 1:57am on Friday the 21st of April 2006

A CYCLONE WARNING remains current for coastal communities on western Cape York
Peninsula from Pormpuraaw to Weipa.

A CYCLONE WATCH is current for Northern Territory coastal and island communities
between Port Roper and Milingimbi including Groote Eylandt, Elcho Island and
Nhulunbuy.

At 1 am EST [12:30 am CST] Severe Tropical Cyclone Monica had strengthened to
Category 3. Severe Tropical Cyclone Monica was located near latitude 13.7 south
longitude 140.2 east, which is 405 kilometres east southeast of Nhulunbuy in the
Northern Territory and 170 kilometres west southwest of Aurukun in Queensland.

This SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY as it moves towards the
Arnhem Coast of the Northern Territory.

Gales should develop about the Northern Territory coast between Port Roper and
Milingimbi including Groote Eylandt, Elcho Island and Nhulunbuy during Saturday.


Details of Tropical Cyclone Monica, Category 3, for 1 am EST [12:30 am CST]
Friday.
Central Pressure : 970 Hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 30 kilometres of
latitude 13.7 degrees south
longitude 140.2 degrees east
405 km east southeast of Nhulunbuy [Northern Territory]
170 km west southwest of Aurukun [in Queensland]
Recent Movement : WNW at 8 km/hr
Maximum wind gusts : 170 kilometres per hour

Areas of heavy rain will continue over Cape York Peninsula overnight and may
cause some flooding. People living in areas likely to be affected by this
flooding should continue to take the appropriate measures and follow the advice
given by authorities.

Abnormally high tides are expected between Pormpuraaw and Weipa, but the sea
level should not exceed the highest tide of the year. Large waves are likely
along the western Cape York beachfront.

Even though the cyclone is moving away from Queensland, people on the coast
between Aurukun and Pormpuraaw remain under cyclone warning for the next few
hours and should still take precautions and listen to the next advice to be
issued at 5 am EST [4:30 am CST] Friday.



People between Port Roper and Milingimbi should consider what action they will
need to take if the cyclone threat increases and listen to the next advice at 5
am EST [4:30 am CST] If you are unsure about actions to be taken, information is
available from your local government or local Emergency Service.

The next warning will be issued by 5 am EST [4:30 am CST] Friday.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.
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CHRISTY

#133 Postby CHRISTY » Thu Apr 20, 2006 1:21 pm

SORRY ABOUT THE LARGE IMAGE GUYS !BUT TAKE A LOOK AT THIS LOOP! :eek:

Image

here are a few images of monica....

Image

Image

Image
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#134 Postby P.K. » Thu Apr 20, 2006 1:29 pm

Someone asked for a tracking map for the whole of Australia a while ago. http://www.bom.gov.au/info/cyclone/newpamphlet/plotmap.pdf
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#135 Postby P.K. » Thu Apr 20, 2006 2:26 pm

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
Issued at 1930 UTC 20 APRIL 2006

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here,
and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Monica estimated within 15 nautical miles of
13.6 S 140.2 E moving NORTHWEST at 4 knots. Central pressure 960 hPa.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 100 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Sustained winds to 75 knots near centre increasing to 100 knots within 12 to 24
hours.
Winds above 64 knots within 25 nautical miles of centre with very high to
phenomenal seas.
Winds above 48 knots within 50 nautical miles of centre with very rough to high
seas and moderate to heavy swell.
Winds above 34 knots within 100 nautical miles of centre with rough to very
rough seas and moderate swell.

0600 UTC 21 Apr: centre within 40 nautical miles of 13.3 S 139.8 E.
950 hPa. Winds to 90 knots near centre.
1800 UTC 21 Apr: centre within 75 nautical miles of 12.9 S 139.3 E.
945 hPa. Winds to 100 knots near centre.

REMARKS
Ships in the general area please transmit 3-hourly weather reports.



DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
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Coredesat

#136 Postby Coredesat » Thu Apr 20, 2006 2:37 pm

This is a little old, but... :eek:

WWPS20 KNES 201411
SATELLITE WEATHER BULLETIN
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN MTSAT IRNITE
.
APRIL 20 2006 1333Z
.
13.8S 140.1E T4.5/4.5/D1.5/12HRS MONICA (23P)
.
PAST POSITIONS...13.9S 141.0E 20/0133Z VIS
13.7S 142.3E 19/1333Z IRNIGHT
ADD. POSITIONS...13.9S 140.6E 20/0825Z WINDSAT 37
13.7S 140.5E 20/0834Z AMSU 89
13.7S 140.3E 20/1119Z SSMIS 91
13.7S 140.4E 20/1129Z SSMI 85
.
REMARKS...VERY IMPRESSIVE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE NOW WITH VERY DEEP
CONVECTION BURSTING AROUND THE CENTER. MI IMAGERY SHOWS AN
DISTINCT EYE WITH WEAKEST CONVECTION ON THE NORTH SIDE. CENTER IS
BARELY EMBEDDED IN BLACK FOR A DT OF 5.0. MET IS 4.0. PT IS 4.5.
FT IS 4.5 BASED ON PT AND DT IS TOO HIGH FOR FT PER DEVELOPMENT
RULES.

.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM.
.
THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 20/2200Z.
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#137 Postby P.K. » Thu Apr 20, 2006 3:22 pm

Well it is a 5.0 now.

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN - EASTERN REGION
Issued at 1814 UTC on 20/04/06

Tropical Cyclone Monica at 201800 UTC was centred at 13.6S 140.2E with central
pressure 960 hPa and was moving NW at 4 knots.

Dvorak Classification T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS

Forecast position:

At 21 0600 UTC 13.3S 139.8E with central pressure 950 hPa

At 21 1800 UTC 12.9S 139.3E with central pressure 945 hPa

At 22 0600 UTC 12.6S 138.7E

At 22 1800 UTC 12.3S 137.9E


REMARKS
Good centre position from radar imagery. Centre embedded in black yields DT5.0.
MET and PT support.
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#138 Postby Coredesat » Thu Apr 20, 2006 5:29 pm

SSD agrees:

WWPS20 KNES 202150
SATELLITE WEATHER BULLETIN
MTSAT VIS/IRDAY SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN
.
APRIL 20 2006 2000Z
.
13.7S 139.8E T5.0/5.0/D1.5/12HRS MONICA (23P)
.
PAST POSITIONS....13.8S 140.7E 20/0633Z IRNIGHT
13.9S 141.7E 19/2033Z VIS/IRDAY
.
REMARKS....SYSTEM IS REDEVELOPING RAPIDLY AND CURRENT DT=5.0 IS
BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN. PAT AND 12HR MET ALSO 5.0.
THE FINAL-T WAS BASED ON PAT AND DT.
.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NMI.
.
THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 21/0400Z.

Image
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#139 Postby cycloneye » Thu Apr 20, 2006 6:39 pm

IDQP0004
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

PRIORITY



TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 37
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 8:00 am CST Friday 21 April 2006

A CYCLONE WATCH is current for coastal and island communities between PORT ROPER
and MILINGIMBI, including NHULUNBUY and ELCHO ISLAND.

The CYCLONE WARNING for coastal and island communities between PORMPURAAW and
WEIPA on CAPE YORK PENINSULA has been cancelled.

At 7 am CST [7:30 am EST] SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica CATEGORY 3 was located
by radar about 380 kilometres east southeast of Nhulunbuy, and 390 kilometres
east of Alyangula, moving west northwest at 7 kilometres per hour. The cyclone
is slowly intensifying.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE MONICA is expected to continue to move slowly northwest
across the Gulf of Carpentaria. GALES are not expected in coastal areas within
the next 24 hours, however GALES could develop within 36 hours as the cyclone
approaches the Arnhem coast.

Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica at 7 am CST [7:30 am EST]:
. Centre located near...... 13.6 degrees South 140.0 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west northwest at 7 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre... 190 kilometres per hour
. Central pressure......... 960 hectoPascals

REPEATING: A CYCLONE WATCH is current between PORT ROPER and MILINGIMBI,
including NHULUNBUY and ELCHO ISLAND. The CYCLONE WARNING between PORMPURAAW
and WEIPA has been cancelled.

The next advice will be issued at 11 am CST.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
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#140 Postby boca » Thu Apr 20, 2006 7:01 pm

Is Monica Equivalent to a Cat 3 on this side of the world.
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