Hurricane Isaac - Cat. 1

[Canelaw99]

This little wave can do as it pleases, as long as it and the rest of the tropics realizes that S. FL is closed from Oct. 15-22 as I'll be on a cruise with the fam!

[hial2]

12z CMC model run

Interesting

would ride under the ridge. Looks like up the east coast then out

I think you mean the wave following 96l...The loop you showed turned 96l way east of the EC

[gatorcane]

12z CMC model run

Interesting

would ride under the ridge. Looks like up the east coast then out

I think you mean the wave following 96l...The loop you showed turned 96l way east of the EC

there is some confusion about what we are talking about. 96L should recurve. Its the mysterious system behind 96L that the GFS shows will get close to South Florida in about 10-15 days but it is way out right now.

[Meso]

If it were to verify it would likely be another storm for Bermuda thought... IF! Gfs doesn't do much with this system in the latest run

[Thunder44]

12z CMC model run

Interesting

would ride under the ridge. Looks like up the east coast then out

I think you mean the wave following 96l...The loop you showed turned 96l way east of the EC

there is some confusion about what we are talking about. 96L should recurve. Its the mysterious system behind 96L that the GFS shows will get close to South Florida in about 10-15 days but it is way out right now.

The system that the CMC is developing appears to be 96L to me and it doesn't ride up the east coast. It simply takes it NW towards Bermuda at 144hrs.

[cycloneye]

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W SOUTH
OF 19N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
FORMED ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN CLUSTERS FROM 9N TO 20N
BETWEEN 28W AND 36W.

2 PM Discussion.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1043.shtml?

[CrazyC83]

Still a couple days from TD9 I think.

[jlauderdal]

This little wave can do as it pleases, as long as it and the rest of the tropics realizes that S. FL is closed from Oct. 15-22 as I'll be on a cruise with the fam!

the only thing closed will be the port due to hurricane conditions,

[mountainspring]

I bet it it's a Cat 5 to boot.

Right up Tampa Bay as a 700 mile diameter 200 mph Category 5 monster. You heard it here first, folks.

OK, am I missing something? This is hitting South Florida, not coming up the mouth of Tampa Bay. Or have I gone blind or something?

[terstorm1012]

It would help a great deal, for me at least, if someone could tell us where that model plot came from (the one with the florida strike).

It looks like the GFS, but what hour is it (from what run)?

Personally I'm not one to pay attention to the numerical models without scanning what's really going on out there first. There is IMO too much emphasis on numerical models and that hurts forecasting.

[Meso]

06z run, at the end of the run I think.

[cycloneye]

It would help a great deal, for me at least, if someone could tell us where that model plot came from (the one with the florida strike).

It looks like the GFS, but what hour is it (from what run)?

Personally I'm not one to pay attention to the numerical models without scanning what's really going on out there first. There is IMO too much emphasis on numerical models and that hurts forecasting.

00z run last night.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

But the 12z doesn't show anything like that.

[Scorpion]

It was the 00z GFS. 12z doesn't even show it coming close.

[gtalum]

OK, am I missing something? This is hitting South Florida, not coming up the mouth of Tampa Bay. Or have I gone blind or something?

I was joking. Just anticipating the ridiculous hyperventialtion that will occur if this storm comes close to Florida. Every storm that comes near the state causes a frenzy of "Tampa Bay at 200 mph!" ranting.

[x-y-no]

00z run last night.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

But the 12z doesn't show anything like that.

Yeah, it's interesting ... if anything, the 12Z builds the subtropical ridge stronger and holds it longer than the earlier runs, but it has absolutely nothing under there ...

Sort of "Field of Dreams" in reverse - what if you built it and nobody came?

[mountainspring]

OK, am I missing something? This is hitting South Florida, not coming up the mouth of Tampa Bay. Or have I gone blind or something?

I was joking. Just anticipating the ridiculous hyperventialtion that will occur if this storm comes close to Florida. Every storm that comes near the state causes a frenzy of "Tampa Bay at 200 mph!" ranting.

OK, thanks!

[Evil Jeremy]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 212121
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU SEP 21 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
HELENE...LOCATED ABOUT 485 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE AND A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED 730 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS HAS CHANGED LITTLE TODAY. HOWEVER...SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT
MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN

[Cyclenall]

Sort of "Field of Dreams" in reverse - what if you built it and nobody came?

Excellent quote.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Very sad

[Thunder44]

Very sad

What are you so sad about?