Tropical Storm Alberto

[wzrgirl1]

Christy I think here in SE FLorida we can disgard this system.

until its north of me iam not gonna say that just yet.

You can't disregard a system that is just starting to get it's act together.....anything can happen in the early stages..........

[Windtalker1]

Christy I think here in SE FLorida we can disgard this system.

I think your jumping the gun with that statement.

[rockyman]

There is still low level turning closer to the coast of northern Belize...plus convection is concentrated here...I'd buy a new center forming further south rather than further east.

[boca]

Here in SE Florida well probably get nothing. Lower Keys and Naples up the coast and north of Tampa thru the panhandle will be affected.

Boca, I think you are in store for some heavy rain. Check out the large mass of heavy rain headed north from the Key West radar site.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php ... R&loop=yes

Ronjon I agree to a certain extent the system is moving NW so that area of convection will be on the SW Florida area ,not the SE coast because it has a westerly componet to the path.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I still am skeptical about this thing even being a FL hit. According to the NHC discussion, nearly all of the Gulf coast should keep watch. "There is a greater than normal amount of uncertainty" in thier forecast . Based on that statement, I doubt the exact forecast track we see now will be the one that remains.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I still am skeptical about this thing even being a FL hit. According to the NHC discussion, nearly all of the Gulf coast should keep watch. "There is a greater than normal amount of uncertainty" in thier forecast . Based on that statement, I doubt the exact forecast track we see now will be the one that remains.

Thier simply looking at one Model Flop ..this is a FL storm

[ROCK]

I still am skeptical about this thing even being a FL hit. According to the NHC discussion, nearly all of the Gulf coast should keep watch. "There is a greater than normal amount of uncertainty" in thier forecast . Based on that statement, I doubt the exact forecast track we see now will be the one that remains.

true..but still think a NE track eventually. Sure is sheared mess down there but typical for early season storms.

[wzrgirl1]

about when will recon get in there so we have a better of idea of what's going on?

[CHRISTY]

guys recon is suppose to be there around 1pm right?so we probably wont get real good information on what they found until the 5:00pm advisory.

[NCHurricane]

Cuban Radar mosaic: http://www.met.inf.cu/Radar/NacComp200Km.gif

La Bajada, Cuba Animated: http://www.met.inf.cu/Radar/00Pinar%20d ... AXw01a.gif

[ericinmia]

guys recon are suppose to be there around 1pm right?so we probably wont get real good information on what they found until the 5:00pm advisory.

Decode it for yourself and find out within minutes

[boca]

Yes I know I shouldn't jump the gun But I have a gut feeling not to be too concerned on the east coast and my reasoning is that the closet trough to pull this system NE thru the state is over EL Paso Texas area and our system is moving 10 mph so if that trough catches our system it would probably turn NE once it approaches the panhandle FL or Mobile area.

[rockyman]

Headline story on CNN (TV)--Tropical Depression 1

[Extremeweatherguy]

Does anyone have a graphic that shows where all the models take this system? (Prefrably not a graphic made up of the LBAR, BAMD, and other usually useless models only).

[N2FSU]

Not a graphic, but here is a link to the GFS, CMC, Nogaps and GFDL:

http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/

[WindRunner]

guys recon is suppose to be there around 1pm right?so we probably wont get real good information on what they found until the 5:00pm advisory.

It will actually be 2pm EDT, and if Cuba decides to issue some watches and/or warnings before the 11am adivsory goes out, then we will also have an intermediate advisory at 2pm, which might upgrade the storm depending on what kind of winds the plane has encountered before reaching the center. However, the best analysis of the storm will be at 5pm as they will have all of the data from the flight at that point.

[kenl01]

This system shouldn't be a big deal for the most part. Significant shear should inhibit rapid development. In fact, this system could weaken after reaching moderate TS strength if it becomes increasingly elongated early next week as it approaches a trough in the eastern CONUS and possibly transitions into an extra-tropical system if it's expected to move off the SE coast. A threat for gusty winds and rough surf will still exist along the Carolina coast on Tuesday into Wednesday even if this system is extratropical. Water temperatures are cooler off the coast of the Big Bend Florida and the upper Florida West Coast. These cooler waters combined with the stronger winds aloft could cause the whole system to become elongated causing it to weaken.

[rockyman]

Looking at the latest QuikScat from 1115z, it looks like the big "hole" in the clouds due ESE of Cozumel is a very broad center of circulation...which means the circulation could tighten up anywhere between 21 N and 18.5 north

http://tinyurl.com/f7wzm

[mtm4319]

Does anyone have a graphic that shows where all the models take this system? (Prefrably not a graphic made up of the LBAR, BAMD, and other usually useless models only).

[NCHurricane]

Does anyone have a graphic that shows where all the models take this system? (Prefrably not a graphic made up of the LBAR, BAMD, and other usually useless models only).

This is the only one I've seen so far Early Model Guidance It only has a couple.

WU and SFWMD aren't up yet (that I've seen).

EDIT: mtm beat me. Where did that one come from, mtm?