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El Nino Pacific canes
Posted: Fri Mar 16, 2007 7:12 pm
by jerseydevil11
What effect does El Nino have on Pacific hurricanes? I thought 2006 was an El Nino year, but last year there were Pacific Hurricanes
Posted: Sat Mar 17, 2007 3:42 pm
by Aslkahuna
There tends to be a higher number of Eastern and Central Pacific storms during El Niño years so 2006 was not out of the ordinary for those regions.
Steve
Posted: Sat Mar 17, 2007 6:24 pm
by Ptarmigan
El Nino is generall favorable to CPAC and EPAC. The most active EPAC season was in 1992 with 28 storms and that was an El Nino year. In fact 1991-1994 was El Nino, which explains the more active season that time. That's why Hurricane Iniki formed in 1992. As for typhoons, El Nino is generally favorable to them too. If I recall in 1997, there were many Super Typhoons, Ivan, Joan, and Keith, which is stronger than Tip of 1979 based on Dvorak readings. I would not be surprised if they had pressures lower than 870 mb, perhaps 860 mb and winds of 185 to 190 mph.
Posted: Sat Mar 17, 2007 10:06 pm
by jerseydevil11
Hoe does the warm winter causally connect with El Nino? Are there high altitude warm currents raising the temperature?
Posted: Sun Mar 18, 2007 1:04 am
by Aslkahuna
Actually the highest Dvorak estimates are for STY Gay and STY Angela. However, it's all a moot point since without in-situ recon measruements Tip's record is secure for some time until we can measure pressure from Space-unless something really remarkable happens in the ATL.
Steve
Posted: Sun Mar 18, 2007 1:23 am
by Ptarmigan
Aslkahuna wrote:Actually the highest Dvorak estimates are for STY Gay and STY Angela. However, it's all a moot point since without in-situ recon measruements Tip's record is secure for some time until we can measure pressure from Space-unless something really remarkable happens in the ATL.
Steve
Don't know if there will be a hurricane in the ATL that will have pressure of less than 880 or even 860 mb. That would be scary!
I read that the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane might of had a pressure of 880 mb.
Posted: Sun Mar 18, 2007 1:57 am
by Chacor
Late last season in the WPac we saw many strong typhoons explosively deepening east of the Philippines. This was related to the El Niño, I think.
Posted: Sun Mar 18, 2007 6:27 pm
by Aslkahuna
Actually, last year's activity with the rapid deepening just east of the Philippines was atypical for an El Niño year. Usually, in such years the storms deepen well to east and are more of a threat to Guam, Japan amd Korea than the Philippines. Also, numbers were on the low side for a Niño year as well.
Steve
Posted: Sun Mar 18, 2007 7:55 pm
by Ptarmigan
Aslkahuna wrote:Actually, last year's activity with the rapid deepening just east of the Philippines was atypical for an El Niño year. Usually, in such years the storms deepen well to east and are more of a threat to Guam, Japan amd Korea than the Philippines. Also, numbers were on the low side for a Niño year as well.
Steve
Interesting. I wonder why last year's typhoon season was below average as you said.