STORM2K

I did not schedule a vacation this past August/september because of this past years Hurricane fears. Most predicted a bad year for the east coast. Now I wish I hadn't listened. Does anyone know what this years El NINo have on next summers hurricane season and possibly back it with data? Thanks.

I am asking this because my wife would like to go back to Alaska but I would be very nervous to leave my house and pets to face a possible bad storm alone.

Hmmm...it is too early to tell right now...remember that in May it was all systems go for major activity and a possible La Nina...then it quickly turned around and became an El Nino...I would say the best bet is too wait until around April or May and see what we have cooking in the South Atlantic...

Tstormwatcher wrote:I did not schedule a vacation this past August/september because of this past years Hurricane fears. Most predicted a bad year for the east coast. Now I wish I hadn't listened. Does anyone know what this years El NINo have on next summers hurricane season and possibly back it with data? Thanks.

I am asking this because my wife would like to go back to Alaska but I would be very nervous to leave my house and pets to face a possible bad storm alone.

No one will be able to tell until a week or so in advance. The pattern the Atlantic Basin is in is very close to what was observed during the 1940s-1960s. That means a significantly increased risk for a storm striking your area in the coming years/decades. But even in the 1940s-1960s there were seasons like 2006, anomalies. I think there's a very good chance that your area will be threatened by a hurricane next August-October. Certainly, the chances are greater than during the inactive AMO cycle from 1970-1994.

But no one can guarantee you 100% that you WILL be affected by a significant hurricane in 2007 (or that you won't). I certainly wouldn't schedule a vacation during peak season and leave my home unattended. But if you have no problem cancelling your trip a few days before you leave because of an approaching hurricane, then go ahead and plan it.

the enso cycle of 2007 won't be known till Northern Spring or early part of Summer.