Does getting hit once by a hurricane increase the odds...

[DanKellFla]

Does getting hit once by a hurricane increase the odds of getting struck again in the same season?
I may be imagining this, but storm tracks seem to bunch together in a season. Is that correct?
Thanks.

[wall_cloud]

A hurricane has far too short of a memory to remember where the last storm went.

Seriously, no, it doesn't increase the odds.

I will add to this, however, that certain patterns can be very persistent which will tend to favor certain storm tracks (i.e. the Bermuda High remaining over one area for a long time) but each storm is independent.

[Wthrman13]

Does getting hit once by a hurricane increase the odds of getting struck again in the same season?
I may be imagining this, but storm tracks seem to bunch together in a season. Is that correct?
Thanks.

It seems to me that, at least theoretically, the statistics for a given season for hurricane landfall points may not be completely statistically independent, because two or more storms may be moving in the same general UL steering pattern, so there may be something to this. I'm not sure anyone has done any research on this to see if there is any statistically significant signal here, but it's a good question.

[wall_cloud]

It seems to me that, at least theoretically, the statistics for a given season for hurricane landfall points may not be completely statistically independent, because two or more storms may be moving in the same general UL steering pattern, so there may be something to this. I'm not sure anyone has done any research on this to see if there is any statistically significant signal here, but it's a good question.

While what you are saying may be true, I think the wording of the original question is a bit off. I do also believe that similar steering patterns may result in multiple storms following roughly the same route. However, to say that being affected by a storm "increases the chances" of seeing another storm would be incorrect. Being impacted by a hurricane/tropical storm is completely independent of earlier storm tracks (assuming they aren't right on the heels of the preceding storm, i.e. following it into the weakness created in the ridge).

[DanKellFla]

It seems to me that, at least theoretically, the statistics for a given season for hurricane landfall points may not be completely statistically independent, because two or more storms may be moving in the same general UL steering pattern, so there may be something to this. I'm not sure anyone has done any research on this to see if there is any statistically significant signal here, but it's a good question.

While what you are saying may be true, I think the wording of the original question is a bit off. I do also believe that similar steering patterns may result in multiple storms following roughly the same route. However, to say that being affected by a storm "increases the chances" of seeing another storm would be incorrect. Being impacted by a hurricane/tropical storm is completely independent of earlier storm tracks (assuming they aren't right on the heels of the preceding storm, i.e. following it into the weakness created in the ridge).

Wthrman got it, thanks. I guess I should have been clearer. But your point about the weakness in a ridge is very interesting.

[Wthrman13]

It seems to me that, at least theoretically, the statistics for a given season for hurricane landfall points may not be completely statistically independent, because two or more storms may be moving in the same general UL steering pattern, so there may be something to this. I'm not sure anyone has done any research on this to see if there is any statistically significant signal here, but it's a good question.

While what you are saying may be true, I think the wording of the original question is a bit off. I do also believe that similar steering patterns may result in multiple storms following roughly the same route. However, to say that being affected by a storm "increases the chances" of seeing another storm would be incorrect. Being impacted by a hurricane/tropical storm is completely independent of earlier storm tracks (assuming they aren't right on the heels of the preceding storm, i.e. following it into the weakness created in the ridge).

Which is pretty much what I was driving at... Obviously nothing about the storm itself is increasing the chances of the next storm (except maybe the creation of the weakness in a ridge you mentioned or some other similar effect), but the OP wasn't asking whether the storm itself increased the chances, he was asking whether being hit by the storm increases the chances of being hit again, which could involve any number of meteorological factors not directly related to the storm. At least that's what I gathered from his post. Obviously the answer to the question would require a detailed statistical study to determine if the correlation between consecutive landfalls is statistically significant. My intuition is that it isn't most of the time, but certain years with extremely persistent patterns might show a signal. Certainly there appear to be patterns where some years storms tend to be long trackers that make it all the way to a U.S. or Mexico landfall, due to a stronger Bermuda High, while other years, there may be many storms, but most recurve well out to sea (like 1995 for example), due to a weaker Bermuda High. Again, an interesting question!