Why don't more pro-mets visit non tropical threads.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Ok, I think I successfully sent money to S2K, so know I'm feeling all saucy and bold.

How come only a few pro-mets visit weather threads not related to tropical cyclones? The winter weather and severe weather threads rarely see a pro-met, and I can think of several pro-mets that disappear completely in the Winter and Spring months. Others stay year round, but relegate themselves to the Sports forum.


I would think, even if one specializes in tropical meteorology, all those early undergraduate classes in meteorology would make one well qualified to at least add some input to the severe weather and snow threads, for the benefit of non-professionals like me.


Note I am not so saucy I'm calling any pro-mets out by name. But with a possible severe weather outbreak in Missouri on April 8th and the Plains the 9th and 10th, professional help would be much appreciated.




'Saucy and bold', I think I have BBQ on the brain


I do want to salute 'Wall Cloud", an NWS met working in Amarillo, who obviously has an interest in winter and severe weather, judging from his nic, and maybe aided by the fact that Amarillo is snowy in the Winter and has lots of severe weather in the Spring.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Maybe the non-member Pay Pal credit card payment system doesn't work, or it takes longer, or S2K folks can't match my e-mail with my nic.

Because I'm still a cat 5 per the avatar info.



OK, my last name starts with the letter 'M', and my e-mail address starts Ed_M****@MyCompany.net


My company is a 5 letter word, that starts with an "E".


I hope that helps.

[senorpepr]

[puts on pro met cap]

Let me see if I can tackle your first post. I realize I’m one of those pro mets that hangs year-round, and I do my fair share of activity in the Sports forum.

When it comes to tropical meteorology, yes—that’s the area I probably post the most about. Is it my specialty—no, but it is what interests me the most. My specialty covers foreign weather. Yeah, one could say I’m “qualified” enough to post in the severe weather and snow threads. But the fact of the matter is—most of those threads don’t interest me as much.

In regards to the winter weather threads—I just don’t focus on New England weather or “the Deep South” enough to talk about that weather without a detailed analysis beforehand. Yeah, I read some of the threads in Winter Weather, but I rarely have anything to add because I’m not going to sit down and do a complete analysis for each thread. (Plus, I normally skip threads that contemplate the thought of “winter” weather in Texas or Florida, or a GFS forecast 120+ hours out—they make me chuckle.)

A lot of what I said goes for the USA Weather forum too. I rarely notice what is going on here in the states. Truth be told—I rarely know what the weather will be like here in Nebraska until I step outside into the elements.

Matter of fact, you mention the possibility of a severe weather outbreak 8-10th. Honestly, that’s the first I’ve heard of it—I’m pretty lucky to know that today’s high is going to be near 70 here in Omaha. I have no clue what tomorrow will bring. I know I can find out, but I’m more focused on smog/haze in India, settling dust from a dust storm in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Iran, a developing system north of Libya, and a significant front moving through the Northern Areas and Northwest Frontier of Pakistan and the far-eastern provinces of Afghanistan, where heavy rain is falling. These items take the bulk of my notice, because these rank in my specialty.

As for the sports forum—where’s a meteorologist gotta go to unwind?

[removes pro met cap and dons moderator cap]

[southerngale]

Plus, I normally skip threads that contemplate the thought of “winter” weather in Texas or Florida

While winter weather in the southern part of Texas is pretty much non-existent, North Texas does get quite a bit of winter weather. Even the Brownwood area (central Texas, near Abilene), where I have a lot of relatives, usually gets quite a few snow events each year, but not like the Panhandle. Anyway... just thought I'd throw that out there. I know... it's still nothing like a Minnesota winter.

[wall_cloud]

Hey Ed, thanks for acknowledging me for my participation. I'll through out a little bio first, then get into my thoughts on the topic. As the name suggests, my passion lies with severe weather. I grew up in southern OK, attended OU and then worked in the private sector in OKC for a year or two. Then I joined the NWS in Corpus Christi. After three years, I transferred to Amarillo (been here almost 2.5 years). So I've seen pretty much both extremes of TX weather and, having spent multiple years at each location, feel that I have enough experience to consider myself well versed in Severe, Winter and Tropical Forecasting.

I like to join in the discussions started by wx enthusiasts. I feel, as a professional met, that I can sometimes add a comment to the discussion that may help a novice understand better. That's not always true though, sometimes I am stumped just like everyone else. I think there are quite a few pro mets like myself, but like any other profession, there are those that don't care to participate as well. Why do these threads see fewer pro mets? My take is that many are put off by the prevalence of wish-casting by those they feel are "unqualified" to forecast. I don't see amatuer forecasts as a bad thing, but I can honestly say that sometimes the wish-casts really turn me off as well. I understand why so many people want snow/severe weather/hurricanes, but many times it seems that members only talk about worst case scenario and situations that have little to no chance of actually occuring. I can't count the number of times the GFS is discussed beyond days 7-10. I think the GFS sucks at 3 days many times, so the likelihood of it being correct beyond a week is very low. I choose not to participate in many of those discussions because I don't want to be the killjoy that is seen as "trying to ruin the fun" of the masses. The wx entusiasts are left to their own devices. I would not go so far as to say that the normal poster is driving the pro met away, but the discussion really doesn't fall into the category that most pro mets (including myself) want to discuss. Does that make sense?

[Ed Mahmoud]

I think there is less wish-casting on the severe threads than the tropical or winter threads.



And, just 3 and a half years ago, the GFS was correct about light snow near Houston on a run from about 10 days out.


And snow or ice means a day off work and school, so when the 18Z GFS shows precip over Houston with the freezing 850 mb isotherm and sub 540 dm thickness South of here at 276 hours, well, we all know it is Lucy and the football, but it would be so sweet if it verified.

[wall_cloud]

sure it would be, but professional forecasters don't look at things the same was as the general public. We don't talk about what would be sweet, we discuss what we think will happen, preferably without wading through the continuous reply of "well, it COULD happen" or "the GFS was right on Christmas 2004".

Citing one example a good model run is not an adequate arguement either. Sure it was right, but how many times has it been wrong since? Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn occasionally