A big what if...

[Maestro]

I know that thousands of volunteers are doing the best they can. I know there is a lot of frustration. This is certainly not the time to play the blame game.

But let me ask this to people who know a lot more about these things than I do.

How long would it take to evacuate a major city like NO completly? 4-5 days? How accurate is a hurricane prediction 5 days out? Last year, Hurricane Charley was supposed to come right in to Tampa Bay. I live VERY close to the bay and we left town. You know how to the rest of story goes.

Now what if the city of NO evacuates everyone over a 5 day period. People without transportation are loaded on to hundreds of buses and taken from home. Then the hurricane veers way right during those 5 days? How angry is everyone who got evacuated?

What if 20,000 Troops are mobilized and supplies loaded and not needed?

My point is, there is no way to completly prepare for something like this. You can prepare the best you can, and I assume a lot of lessons will be learned. But nothing is 100%. There is all kinds of mismanagement going on, but people are also trying very hard.

We need to direct our efforts and energy to helping. I would say assesing blame is something that can wait til this is all over.

[ericinmia]

However to put it simply....

In THIS case, we knew without a doubt that 2 days out this WOULD hit N.O.

There is no excuse for anyone staying. There were even phone numbers to call to get the state/city/etc. to come pick you up if you didn't have the means. How do you think all the sick got to the superdome?
-Eric

[JenBayles]

Eric - I believe there is ALWAYS doubt right up to the last minute with any storm as to the exact location of eyewall landfall.

[Maestro]

However to put it simply....

In THIS case, we knew without a doubt that 2 days out this WOULD hit N.O.

There is no excuse for anyone staying. There were even phone numbers to call to get the state/city/etc. to come pick you up if you didn't have the means. How do you think all the sick got to the superdome?
-Eric

Is 2 days enough certainty to evacuate a city the size of NO?

How can you say without a doubt? Charley turned at the last minute if I remember correctly.

[eolian]

I dont think 2 days would have gotten everyone out but i would of thought from last years EOC hurricane planning they would have put together a evacuation plan to mobilize all means of removing as many people as possiable even by using rail boxcars and flat cars if need be? When the mandatory evacuation order is given they should of had somekind of plan along with the superdome as last resort but as we all know hindsight is 20/20?

[Miss Mary]

I just thought of another what if type question and since you had a topic going already, I hope you don't mind me borrowing it.....

Almost hate to say this outloud, but since all eyes are on NO and the Gulf areas devastated by Katrina, what if something terrible like 9/11 were to happen again? Not saying we've let our guard down completely, but I can't think of any of other area of our country right now, AND that is precisely what the terrorists would take advantage of.

I'm sorry to even think such a horrible thing.

Mary

[Praxus]

I doubt many of the many federal agencies charged with protection
from terrorist threats are letting their guard down. Their jobs haven't changed because of new orleans.

[GalvestonDuck]

Obviously, I have no idea based on experience here, but other Galvestonians have said it takes 36 hours to completely evacuate the island. Of course, part of the problem here is that there is really only one way off -- the I-45 causeway. Utilizing the ferry wouldn't work, but all those UTMBers and others who work here and live on Bolivar Peninsula would need the ferry to get home and begin their preps. And on the far west end is San Luis Pass, but it's a tiny bridge with barely one lane going each way.

Here, we have what, not quite 60,000 residents...barely double what it was in 1900. NOLA is 22 times that amount.

[FloridaHawk82]

Another member (Brent) posted the following image earlier, and I'm going to keep posting it...

The following are unused school busses in NO. With the hundreds (or thousands?) of school and city busses available, they could have made countless roundtrips to safer places like Houston, Baton Rouge, etc. to get the sick, elderly, and poor out during the 2-3 days of MANDATORY evacuation.

I don't mean to sensationalize it, but I look at the following photo and see thousands of dead bodies...

[MomH]

I played the what if game thinking about Tampa. Where would and could everyone in FL go if a cane the size of Katrina had crossed FL west to east at Tampa. You realize that that storm would have covered the whole state and probably not lessened to less than a 3 before she got across.

I would have had to go South or leave 5 days out. Everyone else would have been going north.