New Orleans Mayor: God Wants City To Be Mostly Black

Discuss the recovery and aftermath of landfalling hurricanes. Please be sensitive to those that have been directly impacted. Political threads will be deleted without notice. This is the place to come together not divide.

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Pearl River
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#81 Postby Pearl River » Sun Feb 12, 2006 3:48 pm

Margie wrote

Looks like the House investigation came to the same conclusion I did: "House investigators acknowledge...they 'will never know' what would have happened had federal, Louisiana and New Orleans officials activated plans and called on the military before the storm and evacuated the city sooner than Aug 28...The summary...also criticizes preparations and decisions by...Nagin...who knew that 100,000 city residents had no cars and relied on public transit. The city's failure to complete its mandatory evacuation, ordered Aug 28, led to hundreds of deaths, the report said."

The timing of the evac order...I had stayed up all night (again) into Sunday morning, and was watching WWL streaming video and it was around 7:30am Sunday that Nagin announced on the air he was "still thinking" about whether to issue a mandatory evac. I think I caught a couple hours of sleep then because I was up again when my brother called just before deployment around noon on Sunday.

I heard thirdhand through the grapevine late Sat evng that Nagin had been unreachable on Sat...I understand NHC had been getting more upset as Sat wore on and no sign of action in NOLA. What I heard was that they could not reach him by phone and had to track down Nagin on Sat night by getting hold of Blanco, she managed to reach him at home, where he said that she was interrupting his dinner (so much for priorities). She then told him to call NHC right away. Supposedly Max Mayfield practically begged him to issue a mandatory evac, but he would not. So you can take that information with whatever level of validity that you like. It is clear Nagin never did make an attempt or even start to plan to evacuate those people without their own transportation, even though the recent Hurricane Pam exercise spelled out the need to do so; many of those people were poor, waiting on their Sep 1st paycheck, and so didn't have the money or means to evacuate on their own.


First of all know one knows that 100,000 people in New Orleans don't have transportation. Several thousand did and chose not to leave.

Second, not taking up for Nagin, he was not at home having dinner, he was out having dinner. Not that it makes any difference.

Third, he had to check with the city attorney's office to see what legal affect issuing a mandatory evacuation would have on the hospitals around town.

Fourth, the Governor has the authority to override the Mayor and she could have issued the order herself.

Fifth, volunatry evacuations were in effect starting on Saturday.

In reference to the levees, the local levee boards use money to appropriate property for the Corps of Engineers. They do not repair levees, it's up to the USACOE to do the repairs.

Derek in reference to what you stated:

Use of Federal Troops for Law Enforcement Purposes: The Posse Comitatus Act (18 U.S.C. § 1385)

Army and Air Force may not be used for law enforcement. DoD policy extends the prohibition to Navy and Marines.
National Guard in State-status are not covered by the Posse Comitatus Act.
Federal troops (incl. Federalized National Guard) may be used for law enforcement if the President invokes the Insurrection Act to quell civil disturbances.
Other exception includes preventing the loss of life or property during serious disturbances or calamities, and protecting Federal property and governmental functions.


Quelling Civil Disturbances: The Insurrection Act (10 U.S.C. § 331 et seq.)

State and local governments have primary responsibility for quelling rebellions (32 C.F.R. § 215.4(a).
The President may use the military (including the Federalized National Guard) to quell (1) civil disturbances in a State (upon the Governor's request), (2) rebellions that make it difficult to enforce Federal law, or (3) any insurrection that impedes a State's ability to protect citizens' constitutional rights and that State is unable to unwilling to protect these rights.
Before committing U.S. troops, the President must issue a proclamation for rebellious citizens to disperse, cease, and desist.
Some government attorneys believe that the Insurrection Act is subject to a very liberal interpretation.
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#82 Postby Margie » Sun Feb 12, 2006 5:53 pm

Javlin wrote:Yea Margie have to agree on this one.How is it that the MS Gulfcoast mayors had such a good heads up.They got there info from the same source as Nagin.Halloway days in advance(4-5days) had contracts set up with outside debris removal teams to clean up afterwards.My own debris in my yard(60'x10'x8') was p/u within 14-18 days after impact.Then Halloway's insight to buy insurance against revenue lost from the Casino industry.IT'S CALLED PLANNING.The other thing with Nagin calling for the evac order so late,it contra,really messes with exits for the MS coastal counties.During Ivan it took folks 6hrs to get to Hattiesburg because of contra.


Was that casino insurance a great call or what.

Yes Slidell regional NWS office does provide weather forecasts for the MS coast as well as NOLA. They even tend to focus more on NOLA than the other areas...I was not 100% happy with some of their products prior to Katrina's landfall, which didn't seem to place enough emphasis on the coastlines and surge.

Yes there is really a serious problem with evacuating the northern Gulf coast. Usually MS needs to evacuate later than LA. The plan basically has both LA and AL folks driving into northern and central MS, taking up all the hotel room in the state, then people from MS have to evacuate quite far away, as far as TN. My family always goes to a relative in Dallas TX. For Ivan, it took them 7 hours to get through Hattiesburg, which usually takes 15 minutes. They have dogs and cats so the evacuation is not only expensive but a huge hassle.

Someone mentioned parking garages. I had actually thought that wouldn't be such a bad idea, right after Katrina. Set up some large parking garages in the northern part of the coastal counties, put chain link fence over the openings to stop most flying debris, let people stay and park their cars for the duration of the hurricane and until such time as local roads can be cleared. Most residents wouldn't mind 8 hours of blowing rain and wind in a garage if they knew they'd be able to get back home quickly.

The odd thing with Katrina was that I recall the LA evac with Dennis two months earlier seemed much more thorough than the evac for Katrina.
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#83 Postby Audrey2Katrina » Sun Feb 12, 2006 6:13 pm

The odd thing with Katrina was that I recall the LA evac with Dennis two months earlier seemed much more thorough than the evac for Katrina.


That was probably because most folks didn't bother to leave for Dennis. I know out here in Metairie, virtually everyone remained--whereas for Katrina, virtually everyone left--and Jefferson Parish has more people than Orleans.

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Derek Ortt

#84 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Feb 12, 2006 6:23 pm

Other exception includes preventing the loss of life or property during serious disturbances or calamities, and protecting Federal property and governmental functions.

thanks for the info

it does seem that this exception could have been invoked as a federal ordered evacuation, it can be argued, would have saved lives during a major calamity, which Katrina most certainly was
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#85 Postby Pearl River » Sun Feb 12, 2006 6:31 pm

Javlin wrote:
Yea Margie have to agree on this one.How is it that the MS Gulfcoast mayors had such a good heads up.They got there info from the same source as Nagin.Halloway days in advance(4-5days) had contracts set up with outside debris removal teams to clean up afterwards.My own debris in my yard(60'x10'x8') was p/u within 14-18 days after impact.Then Halloway's insight to buy insurance against revenue lost from the Casino industry.IT'S CALLED PLANNING.The other thing with Nagin calling for the evac order so late,it contra,really messes with exits for the MS coastal counties.During Ivan it took folks 6hrs to get to Hattiesburg because of contra.


Was that casino insurance a great call or what.

Yes there is really a serious problem with evacuating the northern Gulf coast. Usually MS needs to evacuate later than LA. The plan basically has both LA and AL folks driving into northern and central MS, taking up all the hotel room in the state, then people from MS have to evacuate quite far away, as far as TN. My family always goes to a relative in Dallas TX. For Ivan, it took them 7 hours to get through Hattiesburg, which usually takes 15 minutes. They have dogs and cats so the evacuation is not only expensive but a huge hassle.

Someone mentioned parking garages. I had actually thought that wouldn't be such a bad idea, right after Katrina. Set up some large parking garages in the northern part of the coastal counties, put chain link fence over the openings to stop most flying debris, let people stay and park their cars for the duration of the hurricane and until such time as local roads can be cleared. Most residents wouldn't mind 8 hours of blowing rain and wind in a garage if they knew they'd be able to get back home quickly.

The odd thing with Katrina was that I recall the LA evac with Dennis two months earlier seemed much more thorough than the evac for Katrina.



Contra flow started on Saturday evening, so don't blame it on Nagin. Most of what was taken up in north MS was from Florida residents, who were told to evacuate there on Thursday. My sister-in-law stayed in Memphis and we stayed in Orange, TX. On Friday there were no hotel rooms to be found and at that time they were not sure where Katrina was going to hit. Don't go blaming everything on people from LA.

I don't think the Biloxi mayor 4-5 days in advance had contracts for debris removal since the Katrina was still forming at the time. I feel they may have had contracts from Dennis.
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#86 Postby HurryKane » Sun Feb 12, 2006 8:24 pm

I heard thirdhand through the grapevine late Sat evng that Nagin had been unreachable on Sat...I understand NHC had been getting more upset as Sat wore on and no sign of action in NOLA.


I have to say though, early Saturday morning, the NOLA TV stations were telling people that although evacuations hadn't been ordered it was time to get the hell out. I was impressed. WLOX though...jeez, don't get me started on their lack of coverage Saturday morning when the forecast path had gone straight to Biloxi at 4:30 pm the day before.

For Ivan, it took them 7 hours to get through Hattiesburg, which usually takes 15 minutes.


They've since taken steps to mitigate this by not allowing I-59 and Highway 49 traffic to interact in any way in Hattiesburg during evacuations. I hit Hattiesburg at midnight when leaving for Ivan and was stuck in stop and go on the interstate for about 30 minutes. For Katrina, there was no backup at all at 3:30 in the morning.

Someone mentioned parking garages. I had actually thought that wouldn't be such a bad idea, right after Katrina. Set up some large parking garages in the northern part of the coastal counties, put chain link fence over the openings to stop most flying debris, let people stay and park their cars for the duration of the hurricane and until such time as local roads can be cleared. Most residents wouldn't mind 8 hours of blowing rain and wind in a garage if they knew they'd be able to get back home quickly.



That sounds like 10,000 lawsuits waiting to happen (i.e. for the flying debris that did make it through).
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#87 Postby Javlin » Sun Feb 12, 2006 11:47 pm

Well guys do you feel that the Mayors of the Gulf Coast have done a bad job?I think that even Brent Warr for his first time in office did well in the aftermath.The coast seems to be going in the right direction and speed for the most part.You are probably right PR maybe not 4-5 days maybe 3-4.It seemed that the local media stated the debis contracts were in relation to Katrina.Hell even if it was for the summer it's still Planning.If my memory serves me correctly and it could be going I thought that even Derek had this general area progged 48-72 hrs out.Many of us here where concerned that far out myself included.If it can be said that we were then the pros had even more insight.
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#88 Postby Pearl River » Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:54 am

Very good planning to say the least. I'm certainly not knocking that. Look, our politicians are ass backwards, I'm certainly not taking up for them.I'm sure the Casino insurance was done long before the storm. No insurance company would write a policy like that just before a storm were to make landfall. They won't write a homeowners policy if a named storm is within a few days of landfall.

Even so, 48-72 hours out does not give enough time for the SE LA coast to be fully evacuated. 72 hours minimum. Walter Maestri who is the Jefferson Parish Emergency Manager, and very versed on this subject and has been saying for several years, even long before the Hurricane PAM exercise, that the levees in New Orleans were going to fail. Besides, a general area could be anywhere from Pensacola to New Orleans. You can't evacuate 200-300 miles of coastline based on a prediction that a storm could hit in the general area.

It wasn't until Friday evening that the Hurricane Center was even sure it was going to hit near New Orleans and the Hurricane Watch wasn't issued until 10:00 am CDT on Saturday morning. So the experts didn't have a real handle on it until that time and then, it was only issued from Morgan City to the Mouth of the Pearl River. Only later that day did they expand it eastward. The Hurricane Warning wasn't issued until 10:00 pm CDT Saturday, 32 hours prior to landfall.

Voluntary evacuations had been underway most of the day Saturday and contra-flow was started at 4:00 pm that day, not on Sunday. As a matter of fact, contra-flow ended at 3:00 pm Sunday.

I applaude the people on the MS coast for getting their lives back together as much as possible and for the people around here outside of metropolitan N.O too. Unfortunately the population of N.O. was already feeding off of the government and was looking for more handouts.
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#89 Postby HurryKane » Mon Feb 13, 2006 1:11 am

It wasn't until Friday evening that the Hurricane Center was even sure it was going to hit near New Orleans and the Hurricane Watch wasn't issued until 10:00 am CDT on Saturday morning. So the experts didn't have a real handle on it until that time and then, it was only issued from Morgan City to the Mouth of the Pearl River. Only later that day did they expand it eastward. The Hurricane Warning wasn't issued until 10:00 pm CDT Saturday, 32 hours prior to landfall.


True, but NOLA entered the 5-day cone of uncertainty on Tuesday, August 23rd (it slid just out of the cone for a period of about 4 advisories), and the 3-day cone at 5 AM on Friday, August 26th...with all of the models trending towards the mouth of the PR. I know it's hard to plan/push evacs based on that, but there were definitely signs that trouble was coming early on. Certainly was a case where the cone and not the line should have been emphasized by everyone.
Last edited by HurryKane on Mon Feb 13, 2006 1:13 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#90 Postby Javlin » Mon Feb 13, 2006 1:12 am

Yea PR I think that Biloxi might of bought the insurance in June or right before the start of the season.I really liked what Nagin was doing when he first took office with all the corruption and cleanup he did that I applaud.He botched Katrina.Brent Warr was a newly elected Mayor of Gulfport less than 6 months? and he came out with some ideas afterwards that where commendable.A young guy at that.I hope N.O. can work things out and I am sure they will just going to take a little longer than people think.One thing can be said" out of chaos comes new beginnings" I keep telling myself that.I heard that on WWL radio the other day so true.We are all finding that out.
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#91 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Feb 13, 2006 4:20 am

A Hurricane Watch is based upon the ETA. The watch was issued as early as it could be, about 45 hours before landfall. The watch was extended eastward 6 hours later, again due to time.

That said, a blind folded chimp knew that Louisiana and MS were going to be hit and hit hard 12-24 hours before the hurricane watch was issued
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#92 Postby Javlin » Mon Feb 13, 2006 8:43 am

Derek Ortt wrote:A Hurricane Watch is based upon the ETA. The watch was issued as early as it could be, about 45 hours before landfall. The watch was extended eastward 6 hours later, again due to time.

That said, a blind folded chimp knew that Louisiana and MS were going to be hit and hit hard 12-24 hours before the hurricane watch was issued


TKS Derek I was beginning to doubt the old memory.
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#93 Postby Pearl River » Mon Feb 13, 2006 9:28 am

Derek wrote

That said, a blind folded chimp knew that Louisiana and MS were going to be hit and hit hard 12-24 hours before the hurricane watch was issued


Well the blind folded chimps weren't sure until they saw the 150 mile jump to the west with the models on Friday according to the discussion. As a matter of fact, all the models kept pointing to the Florida Panhandle until that time.

This is from the 11:00 am EDT discussion on Friday.


THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A
LARGE SPREAD AFTER 48 HOURS. THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS HAVE MADE A
LARGE JUMP TO THE WEST OVER LOUISIANA...WHEREAS THE MAJORITY OF THE
NHC MODELS TAKE KATRINA INLAND OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS IN THE RIGHT PORTION OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.




This is from the 5:00 pm EDT discussion.

72HR VT 29/1800Z 30.0N 88.5W 115 KT which was inland near Pascagoula.

It wasn't until the 11:00 pm advisory that they narrowed it down to the SE LA and MS coast's and yes it was 24 hrs before the watch was issued..and even you admittedly stated in another thread that they weren't sure even on Saturday morning.

The 11:00 pm advisory was the first one to even put the landfall near the mouth of the Pearl River.

After doing more research, the only way to actually physically remove someone from a mandatory evacuation area is to declare a health emergency. They could have been arrested and paid $500.00 fine, 6 months in prison or both. But I believe the police had more important things to worry about and as it was, they had to move the prisoners that were already in custody.
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#94 Postby Javlin » Mon Feb 13, 2006 9:37 am

That's just the point.The NHC has never made a jump like that before everything inches over.For them to make a jump like that they were thinking about it hard before that point.The comment that the pros have the inside track before we ever see it and even some on the board where looking farther W.
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#95 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Feb 13, 2006 10:24 am

had that 5 p.m. not have been the first forecast... the forecast would have been farther west. NHC does not shift tracks dramatically from forecast to forecast... even if they are fairly sure of the outcome

But by 11 p.m. that Friday, everyone knew that NO was going to take it ver hard
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#96 Postby ROCK » Mon Feb 13, 2006 11:38 am

Derek Ortt wrote:had that 5 p.m. not have been the first forecast... the forecast would have been farther west. NHC does not shift tracks dramatically from forecast to forecast... even if they are fairly sure of the outcome

But by 11 p.m. that Friday, everyone knew that NO was going to take it ver hard



I agree. ample time to evac...
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#97 Postby Margie » Mon Feb 13, 2006 1:53 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:A Hurricane Watch is based upon the ETA. The watch was issued as early as it could be, about 45 hours before landfall. The watch was extended eastward 6 hours later, again due to time.

That said, a blind folded chimp knew that Louisiana and MS were going to be hit and hit hard 12-24 hours before the hurricane watch was issued


Agreed...we were discussing the anticipated change in track on another hurricane web site on Thursday. On Friday morning I frantically got hold of my brother and told him. I really regret the particular words that I used, now...I told him there would be a major hurricane in his backyard on Monday, which turned out to be literally true. After Monday, he had no home. However he did not act on my information anyway. They learned how much surge they could expect from the emergency management on Sunday morning just before they had to go on duty, and it was too late for them to have any time to pack anything and save it at that point.
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#98 Postby Pearl River » Mon Feb 13, 2006 2:49 pm

Derek wrote

A Hurricane Watch is based upon the ETA. The watch was issued as early as it could be, about 45 hours before landfall. The watch was extended eastward 6 hours later, again due to time


Possibly, but with Ivan the watch was issued approx 54 hrs prior to landfall. Almost 10 hrs more lead time for evacuation.

I don't mean any disrespect to you, but, you and everybody else on this board can say how much they new before hand "where" Katrina was going to make landfall, but until the OFFICIAL word comes from the experts, only voluntary evacuations can be ordered. Even the experts state that it would take 72 hrs to completely evacuate New Orleans because of those in Plaquemines and Lower Jefferson Parishes need to evacuate first.

It wasn't much better in Houston for Rita.

Task force hears testimony on Rita evacuation
State has to do a better job next time, locals say.

By Corrie MacLaggan

AMERICAN-STATESMAN STAFF

Thursday, October 27, 2005

HOUSTON — A state task force is looking for ways to avoid a repeat of the Hurricane Rita evacuation last month when about 2.7 million coastal residents flooded roads only to find bumper-to-bumper traffic and empty gas pumps.

Dozens of people died during the evacuation, many because of sweltering conditions in cars, and the death toll could have been higher if Rita had slammed into Houston rather than making landfall farther east at Sabine Pass.

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#99 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Feb 13, 2006 4:44 pm

they do not have to wait until the NHC track indicates a landfall to order an evacuation, that is 100% false. Evacuations can be ordered, even mandatory at any time. Fire Island NY was evacuated for Emily in 1993, even though a watch was not even issued and Corpus Christi evacuated for Rita, when the landfall location was in Houston, again ordered well before a watch.
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#100 Postby sunny » Mon Feb 13, 2006 4:45 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:they do not have to wait until the NHC track indicates a landfall to order an evacuation, that is 100% false. Evacuations can be ordered, even mandatory at any time. Fire Island NY was evacuated for Emily in 1993, even though a watch was not even issued and Corpus Christi evacuated for Rita, when the landfall location was in Houston, again ordered well before a watch.


Oh, but man the flack Aaron Broussard took last year when he issued the evac order for Jefferson Parish during Dennis. hmmmmmmm
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