New Orleans Mayor: God Wants City To Be Mostly Black

[Margie]

I'm wondering what black people Nagin thinks will want to move to NOLA.
It probably won't be any of the lower socioeconomic black people that the mayor literally threw away, by 1) not issuing a mandatory evacuation order until it was too late for them to evacuate, thereby relieving himself of liability, since he didn't have a plan in place to evacuate them, 2) sending them to shelters without providing them with food or water, 3) having NOLA police stand guard and block freeway entrances to prevent any of them from walking out of the city, 4) otherwise doing nothing, while they were living in the most hellish of conditions, until the federal government stepped in and took them very far away.

I know some of what happened in NOLA during the weekend prior to Katrina landfall. Let's just say Nagin and former-FEMA-head Brown have a lot in common as far as lack of compassion for others.

[Audrey2Katrina]

Well, I'd be the last to defend Nagin for some of his irrational acts of late; but since I do live here and know the sequence of events I would offer with all due respect the following qualifications:

1.) The "mandatory" evacuation was ordered by 9:00 AM. Saturday morning--the storm didn't strike till Monday Morning, I left on Sunday, fully 24 hours after the order was issued. All of the predicition models up till Friday kept expecting the storm to recurve much sooner and there was no way to win on this one. He caught all kinds of hell for a recommended evacuation the year previous with Ivan, which did what everyone thought this one would do. This isn't to say people shouldn't have been put on a very serious alert much sooner--they should have; but to order a "mandatory" evacuation, you have to be fairly sure and even by Sat. A.M. there wasn't a certainty albeit a good probability that New Orleans would at the very least catch some nasty winds and surge. I know not everyone has the means to completely leave on short notice; but this is not one of the things I'd find major fault with him about. At some point people need to be responsible for their own destinies, and overwhelmingly folks knew there was a storm, and a bad one, brewing off the La. coast.

2.) He didn't "send them to shelters without providing food and water." The fact is that when evacuations are ordered, folks are supposed to have those needs alread taken care of. He DID say well in advance (even before the "mandatory evacuation order", and I know it because I remember seeing/hearing it; that places like the Superdome would NOT be "shelters" and that people needed to leave, with the dome ONLY a refuge of last resort--AND that people coming there would have to "bring food and water" to last them 3-5 days as the city could NOT provide this for everyone. That said, I completely agree that he had a dismally bad plan in place to help evacuate, or tend the needs of those that didn't. In "planning" I give him an F minus... but I wouldn't exactly say he sent them anywhere without providing food etc. as he did warn them in advance that this would be a problem.

3.) The only case I know of where police forcibly turned people around was when people trying to exodus New Orleans crossed over the Miss. River Bridge and the GRETNA police, turned them back to New Orleans--an act which has precipitated a lawsuit still pending litigation. The NOLA Police had nothing to do with this action.

On the 4th point, I don't know that the man did "nothing" but I agree he could have done a heck of a lot more. Nagin's overall performance was bad... in my opinion, truly bad; but I do not hold him responsible for some of the things people might have been able to do themselves... and did not. The flooding wasn't his fault, the poor planning was. The flooding was consequent to extremely poorly maintained levee systems and the fault of that lies either with the feds, or with the ACOE who didn't do their homework in shoring things up properly.

All that said I grieve for the losses of the folks in the 9th Ward, my old homestead, and what I perceive as a not to subtle "land grab" that will follow to destroy a historic fauberg of family owned homes to make it into some glass and steel menagerie of God only knows what sort of profiteering venture.

A2K

[Margie]

No -- the *mandatory* evac was not issued until noon Sunday. How can you not know that if you were there? Evacuation on Saturday was not mandatory.

I was watching streaming video from a NOLA tv station on Sunday morning, I think it may have been WWL, when I saw and heard Nagin say he was still going to "think about it" and had not issued a mandatory evac yet. This was a topic that was discussed on other hurricane sites as well. I figured he would keep thinking about it right up until the wind started to pick up, and I wasn't far off.

Police definitely did block people from getting onto the elevated freeway right by the superdome...they were told the roadway had to be kept open for vehicles. This was after a couple of people actually did use it to walk away. There are photos of NOLA police cars blocking the entrance to the ramp, and other photos of people standing underneath trying to figure out if there was another way to walk out of the flooded city.

[CajunMama]

Here's a link to the timeline that was published in The Daily Advertiser. Margie is correct...the mandatory evac wasn't called until sunday morning but at at 9:30am. There was a voluntary evacuation of NO called on saturday.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... t=timeline

[LaPlaceFF]

There are photos of NOLA police cars blocking the entrance to the ramp, and other photos of people standing underneath trying to figure out if there was another way to walk out of the flooded city.

I think there were Gretna PD in the middle of the bridge where the parish line is. Whatever the case this is one of the stories that will be told for years to come.

I think that Nagin and Blanco tried to be like Guilainai(sp) but failed. What does everyone else think?

[CajunMama]

I'm not sure which part of NO Margie is talking about but i do know that Sheriff Harry Lee of Jefferson Parish would not let pedestrians into his parish.

[senorpepr]

That's right... the NHC gave New Orleans a 34 1/2-hour lead time (between the 11pm Friday advisory and the 9:30am Sunday evac order). Meanwhile, NHC personel and federal gov't urged Mayor Nagin to order the said evacuation much earlier.


Personally, I wouldn't trust him managing the local Wal-Mart, much less than a major city.

[southerngale]

Yup, Nagin received calls from Mayfield and Bush, urging him to order the evacuation, but he didn't until Sunday. The winds started picking up Sunday afternoon and the city was still full of people. stupid, stupid, stupid

I also think people who live in a hurricane prone area should keep up and get out on their own. Of course there are exceptions, but I didn't sit on my thumbs waiting for the evacuation to be ordered. I had reservations the Monday before Rita hit (overnight Friday) knowing I could cancel if I needed to. It was forecast to hit either Mexico or South Texas (Brownsville area) at that time.

[Audrey2Katrina]

No -- the *mandatory* evac was not issued until noon Sunday. How can you not know that if you were there? Evacuation on Saturday was not mandatory.

I was watching streaming video from a NOLA tv station on Sunday morning, I think it may have been WWL, when I saw and heard Nagin say he was still going to "think about it" and had not issued a mandatory evac yet. This was a topic that was discussed on other hurricane sites as well. I figured he would keep thinking about it right up until the wind started to pick up, and I wasn't far off.

Police definitely did block people from getting onto the elevated freeway right by the superdome...they were told the roadway had to be kept open for vehicles. This was after a couple of people actually did use it to walk away. There are photos of NOLA police cars blocking the entrance to the ramp, and other photos of people standing underneath trying to figure out if there was another way to walk out of the flooded city.

Okay, disproving a minor point. I concede having confused the "voluntary" evacuation called for on Saturday, with the Mandatory on Sunday. Again... big blunder on his part; but I and many others were able to leave after that order--which admittedly came way too late. On the other three points, I stand behind my statement. Here is a direct quote about the folks who had to go to shelters of last resort. "

"...He told those who had to move to the Superdome to come with enough food for several days and with blankets. He said it will be a very uncomfortable place and encouraged everybody who could to get out."

The buck DOES stop at the Mayor's door, and as I'd said before, I'm sure as heck not gonna defend his lack of leadership in the time of crisis. But I do believe a lot of the other accusations are still not completely fairly depicted. People knew what this storm was long before the mayor's call... It was a monstrous Cat 5 heading our way on Saturday. Beyond those that couldn't get out, for whom he definitely SHOULD have made provision, a LOT of folks willingly CHOSE to ride out this storm, and then later blamed everyone else for their own careless choice.

A2K

[Pearl River]

Let's understand what " Mandatory Evacuation" means. It does not force someone to evacuate. It merely means that once the order is issued, Police, Fire, and EMS would not be available to handle non-emergency calls and they cannot force some one to leave their home.

The Mandatory Evacuation order was issued at 9:30 am Sunday morning. There were volunatry evacutions ordered since Saturday. Hurricane Warnings were not issued until 10:00 pm Saturday night.

The Govenor has the right to override the Mayor and she could have ordered the mandatory evacuation sooner.

[Derek Ortt]

and even by Sat. A.M. there wasn't a certainty albeit a good probability that New Orleans would at the very least catch some nasty winds and surge.

All forecasts at that time had indicated a landfall at the mouth of the MS

[LaPlaceFF]

All I hope is that this will become a learning experience for the next time.

[Pearl River]

Derek wrote

and even by Sat. A.M. there wasn't a certainty albeit a good probability that New Orleans would at the very least catch some nasty winds and surge.

All forecasts at that time had indicated a landfall at the mouth of the MS

That's right Derek. New Orleans was in a catch-22 situation because of what happened with Ivan.

This was the first ever mandatory evacuation order issued for the city of New Orleans. Even if the order was given at 10:00pm on the 27th, people still would not have had a means of getting out of the city.

AMTRAK would only have taken them as far as Hammond, LA with no place for them to go from there.

[Derek Ortt]

what Nagin should have issued on Saturday was a total evacuation order, like what was issued for the Florida keys (needlessly) during Ivan last year. Under that order, you do not have the choice to stay, though if it is issued for nothing, there is reluctance to issue it again and to take any type of order seriously, regardless s to whether or not one should be issued (as was shown during Wilma where nobody complied with a mandatory evac order)

Nagin, the governor, and the feds all share in the responsibility for not issuing a total evacuation order for the city (much less so the feds since it is first a local and state issue)

[Pearl River]

I don't believe LA has a total evacuation order. Under State law they cannot force someone from their residence even if it is for their own good. Even after Katrina was done and the Nat'l Guard was on the ground, they could not remove people from their homes.

[Audrey2Katrina]

and even by Sat. A.M. there wasn't a certainty albeit a good probability that New Orleans would at the very least catch some nasty winds and surge.

All forecasts at that time had indicated a landfall at the mouth of the MS

Not "all" forecasts, but certainly the ones using the best models did. Indeed, and just as I posted there wasn't "a certainty" about what New Orleans would get. the 10:00 AM advisory FROM the NHC had New Orleans listed as only a 19 percent chance of getting hurricane winds withing 65 nm of New Orleans before TUESDAY, the 4:00 PM had it up to only 21, and even the 10:00 PM when the warnings finally went up to include our area, still only had New Orleans as a 26 percent, (litte over 1 in 4) chance of being within 65 nm of the center of the storm before Tuesday. Heck, even BURAS, (landfall) was listed as only a 27 percent probability of being within that 65 nm. All I was attempting to assert is that there was no "certainty" nothing more, nothing less. Sure the models while drawing lines usually within a cone of possible area suggested a landfall around the mouth of the river--not arguing that point; and I agree as stated many times that action should have been taken sooner, but the "official advisories" even as late as 10 PM Sat night had New Orleans within 65 nm of the center at only a 1 in four probability. I know hindsight is 20-20; but I do believe they were relying more on these advisories moreso than what varied models predicted--and that also in hindsight was a big mistake.

A2K

[Audrey2Katrina]

Derek Ortt said:
Nagin, the governor, and the feds all share in the responsibility for not issuing a total evacuation order for the city (much less so the feds since it is first a local and state issue)

I agree completely; but as Pearl River pointed out, I don't know if they'd have had that authority. That the state, locals, and feds all share some responsibility is beyond any reasonable doubt.

A2K

[Derek Ortt]

if Louisiana did not have a total evac order, then the feds should have known that before Katrina and handled the evac themselves (like they did with Love Canal about 3 miles from where I grew up). Why this aspect was not addressed during the Pam scenario I am not sure. Maybe someone with more gov't knowledge can enlighten me

[Audrey2Katrina]

Yes, the Pam scenario should have sent up flags all over the place. Why it didn't is beyond me as well....what I find scary is people in Metairie aren't realizing what a bullet "we" dodged inasmuch as flooding goes. They fail to realize that had the 17th canal breached on our side, huge sections of Metairie would have been under 10-15 feet of water just like parts of the city were, and I find attitudes already getting somewhat complacent about it. Either those levees need to be fortified better, or people need to realize they're living on another time-bomb just waiting to go off.

A2K

[bvigal]

I imagine this topic will continue to be the focus of discussions in emergency planning all over the coastal states. One thing that sticks in my mind are the numerous artcles, documentaries, interviews, etc. of the past (pre-2004), warning that major metropolitan areas of the US coastlines are at tremendous risk.

The reason is simple: no matter how good the forecasting, there exists uncertainty of exact landfall and exact intensity at landfall; and, with limited roads around water bodies, huge populations, and human nature of wanting to know for sure before taking such drastic action as evacuation, there just will NEVER be enough time from the point of certainty that evacuation needs to occur to allow for everyone to get out of the area!

Of course they weren't "sure" on Saturday. But really, Thursday or Friday were probably the drop-dead points for the local governments to plan and implement an orderly assisted evacuation of hospitals, nursing homes, infirmed, those with no transportation, those with no means to find a place to sleep outside the effected area. Keep in mind, such an effort would have involved thousands of paid workers, who, in turn, would then need to be finished on Saturday in order to evacuate their own families.

Nagin and other officials, especially the governor, should have made it plain to the population that no amount of government intervention could guarantee they will not be harmed or die or lose property, and that people really have to make up their own minds what to do in time to do it. Spoon-feeding the populace lots of political-posturing platitudes, instead of the truth, is the real crime that occurred in New Orleans.

Try to imagine, if you will, thousands of giant-sized reinforced structures all around the United States coastlines, to withstand 200kt winds for 24hrs. These would be on elevated ground to withstand 50 ft of floodwater or storm surge. Each would be continuously stocked with a week's supply of food, water, generator fuel, and independent garbage disposal and sanitation system, outfitted with beds and bathrooms for 50,000 people. They would contain the usual hospital facilities found in a town of 50,000 people, at least for emergency medicin.

These buildings would have to sit empty but ready for use at 24hrs notice. They would have to include housing for employees who live on the premises to maintain the facilities and provide services after the crowd arrives. On call 24hrs/day via pager or public announcement would be a mega-fleet of buses and drivers to penetrate every street and country lane to pickup and transport all people incapable of getting themselves to the shelter.

Each unit would cost an estimated $500 million to build, and at least $4 million/year to maintain, with salaries. Simple math: a city with population of 1 million would need 20 of these, or $10 billion to build and $80million/year to maintain.

ONLY something like this would give people what they now seem to expect, which is for the government to take care of their every need, and protect them from harm, even from Mother Nature!!