A 25 year recovery?

[Lindaloo]

Took Mississippi (after Camille) about 20 years to rebound. We are talking having to go through the 70's. I predict it will take about 3 to 4 years for us to rebound.

[Audrey2Katrina]

For all intents and purposes, I'd say a good 75% of the area known as New Orleans was rendered severely damaged, or utterly unlivable for quite a while. That's a major US city, and nothing on this scale has happened since the SF Earthquake. It will take a VERY long time (if ever)--and a lot of luck (hurricane-wise) for the city to "fully" recover. Mississippi is on a faster track, and those in Alabama and Florida much faster than what I've seen in New Orleans, much less the poor folks in St. Bernard Parish, which is why I find those numbers confusing.
I'm hoping 10 years; but in all likelihood it'll take even longer. We're approaching the one year anniversary of this disaster, and, yeah, I'd say not even 1/10th of a full recovery has taken place--I'd hazard a guess not 1/100th in St. Bernard.

A2K

[MiamiensisWx]

Audrey2Katrina, where did you hear about how "Mississippi is on a faster track"? I agree with you, though, on the New Orleans area.

[SouthFloridawx]

I was just in Gulf Shores, AL and they are recovering very nicely up there it seems like. It seemed as though most properties whether it be commercial or homes at least 1 in 3 where damaged there. Might I add that the beaches there are absolutely beautiful.

Here is the path I took there.

[Audrey2Katrina]

Yeah, Gulf Shores is beautiful, go there a lot with family in the summer.

As to your question, CVW, I have MANY friends living along the coast. One is actually a HCSO and rode out the whole thing in Gulfport's EOC. While there's unbelievable damage, he, and others, have told me many stories of the areas comeback. To be sure there's still a LOT of coming back to be done; but they are, IMHO making much better progress than the desolate areas in New Orleans--and he drives through BOTH coming to school to work AM's every day where I work.

A2K

[Ixolib]

It just seems odd to me that we talk of "recovery" or a "return to normalcy" 25 or more years down the road. Here's the way I see it.

Had Katrina not hit the northern Gulf, things today would generally be exactly as they were on August 29 or 30. And 25 years later, "things" would have significantly changed with the times anyway, perhaps even to something that is not "normal" by today's standards.

To predict recovery at a point 25 or more years in the future really has no merit. Within that time period, many more storms could (probably will) come ashore, wreaking havoc to the present rebuilding, and subsequent rebuilding, and so on and so on.

I think predicting a recovery period outside of one or two years in the future just simply cannot be done with any credibility. There are just too many variables and unknowns in the mix for such a claim to hold any water....

I mean, in the case of N.O., the city WILL continue to sink, the LA coastline WILL continue to erode and disappear, and most likely more major hurricanes will continue to change the landscape as well. In 25 years, the Gulf waters could be significantly closer than they are now. Therefore, whatever N.O. looks like in 25 years will have been significantly different than it is today anyway...

And of course, this does not take into account Bird Flu, SARS, or Mad Cow Disease.

Yep, too many unknowns to think of recovery in terms or 25 or more years...

[DanKellFla]

Recovery is a tough concept to define. NO will never be the same. Just like the 1960s NO and 1980s NO are different. Time and technology will drive what NO looks like in 10 years. The way I see it is that the first step to recovery will be a viable self-sustaining economy. (I know, you can argure that it was never there in the first place, but lets not.) Here in Florida, there are still many blue tarps on roofs. In two years, that has just become something normal. Also, we have gotten used to the stripped foilage. But, I see no option other than having NO recover because of the Mississippi River. Commerce will drive the city like it always has. Who knows what new industries will develop. Certainly, there will be huge flood control projects that need Enginneers, heavy equipment operators and laborers.
It will be interesting to watch, and I am rooting for you.

[MGC]

Well, there were still a few lots along the beach here on the Mississippi coast that had not been rebuilt since Camille (good thing they didn't cause Katrina would have got em) and that was 36 years BK (before Katrina), so I think it will take a long, long time for my beloved New Orleans to recover. With the current state of the levees in SE La it is certainly Russian Roulette to invest a large sum of monies in the area........MGC

[Stephanie]

25 years sounds like a long time - perhaps they're referring to get her (NO) back to the same level of tourism, etc. before Katrina?

Anyway, it's huge job and between 5 - 10 years would be my guess to get her structurally sound and totally cleaned up.

[Derek Ortt]

Has Galveston recovered to its pre 1900 hurricane levels? I ask this since it was the major city in SE Texas then, whereas now it is Houston. Could something similar happen to NO and Baton Rouge?

[DanKellFla]

Ixolib, Well said.... and two minutes before I tried to say the same thing.

[Lindaloo]

Audrey2Katrina, where did you hear about how "Mississippi is on a faster track"? I agree with you, though, on the New Orleans area.

We are on a faster track.

[Javlin]

Audrey2Katrina, where did you hear about how "Mississippi is on a faster track"? I agree with you, though, on the New Orleans area.

We are on a faster track.

Oh we are.I think N.O. took a good hit and the game of politics is one of the big drawbacks in LA.The part that hurts the coast is the two bridges being out.Yea alot of stuff got tore up but so much debris has been removed.There is nowhere that I know of that you can not drive taking into account the two bridges.The Bay area and the Pass are going to take longer for sure.But some of the lines for rebuilding are already happening both economicaly and and for the home owners.There is tons of work.I am working a second job with a buddy of mine from the BFD on our own business.Work abounds.We will be for the most part out of this in 5 years if Mother nature lets us.

[vbhoutex]

Has Galveston recovered to its pre 1900 hurricane levels? I ask this since it was the major city in SE Texas then, whereas now it is Houston. Could something similar happen to NO and Baton Rouge?

Very Good point Derek!!! No Galveston has never recovered to those same levels, relatively speaking. I guess the same could happen with NO and BR.

[Audrey2Katrina]

Has Galveston recovered to its pre 1900 hurricane levels? I ask this since it was the major city in SE Texas then, whereas now it is Houston. Could something similar happen to NO and Baton Rouge?

A valid question; but I think the analogy is somewhat faulty. Galveston was the prominent SE Tex. city, but I'm not up enough on Texas lore to know if it was THE premiere city of the entire state, and it certainly wasn't the nation's largest port. Also, regarding whether or not it fully recovered, I guess that's a matter of perspective (as Vb has suggested). Houston became the hub of SE Texas, but Galveston still made a full recovery and has more than twice the population now that it had then.

I don't know, I just can't see BR becoming the premiere city of Louisiana... not by a stretch it has neither the history, cultural tableau, nor many other things that make/made New Orleans what it is. New Orleans will be a much smaller city, for a while; but its metro area is already back to being larger than BR, and while I may be seeing through rose-colored glasses; I still see New Orleans as being the hub of culture and industry in this state. JMHO FWIW.

A2K

[GalvestonDuck]

Has Galveston recovered to its pre 1900 hurricane levels? I ask this since it was the major city in SE Texas then, whereas now it is Houston. Could something similar happen to NO and Baton Rouge?

I don't know of any area of the island that was once inhabitable that now isn't.

Biggest difference from pre-1900 -- no slaves.

[Dionne]

The Mississippi coast still had scars remaining from Camille when Katrina hit. We got slammed. The demolition alone will take several years and a few more lives.

5, 10, 20 years.....who knows? It's darn near to big to even guesstimate. But I will say we have done a reasonably good job in 7 months.....considering what has happened and what we have to work with.

Although, at the same time.....we have become storm weary. Possibly we should just wait and see what ths tropical season brings us? If any of the region that experienced Katrina gets nailed again......it will prompt an abrupt standstill in reconstruction.

[Lindaloo]

The Mississippi coast still had scars remaining from Camille when Katrina hit. We got slammed. The demolition alone will take several years and a few more lives.

5, 10, 20 years.....who knows? It's darn near to big to even guesstimate. But I will say we have done a reasonably good job in 7 months.....considering what has happened and what we have to work with.

Although, at the same time.....we have become storm weary. Possibly we should just wait and see what ths tropical season brings us? If any of the region that experienced Katrina gets nailed again......it will prompt an abrupt standstill in reconstruction.

This is more along the lines of drama. The only people I know of that are moving away from the coast are the elderly. They lost everything in these storms and do not wish to start over. Can't say as I blame them for that either.

There will be no standstill in reconstruction. The casinos are rebuilding. Alot of restaurant owners are building back. Won't take very long.

[HurryKane]

The only people I know of that are moving away from the coast are the elderly.

I know quite a few young people that have left.

I agree with Dionne that if we were to take another hit, it would certainly slow rebuilding way down. I guarantee that if another huge storm hit us a larger number of people would leave for good than did this time around.

[Lindaloo]

Well I can speak only for Pascagoula. Most of us are not going anywhere!