Gray made a boo-boo

[Anonymous]

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/fo ... 3/aug2003/

Okay...notice how he's still calling for 3 major hurricanes total.

In his August-only forecast, he's predicting 1 major hurricane. In his September-only forecast, he's also predicting 1 major hurricane. And in his October-only forecast, he is forecasting no major hurricanes.

If my math is correct, 1 + 1 + 0 = 2 major hurricanes. Not 3.

Either 1)Gray is a really bad counter, 2)Gray made a typo somewhere, or 3)Gray is expecting a major hurricane in November. The latter is unlikely, as that would be a very bold prediction to make, and he'd probably say so if he did think that.

So Gray, which is it? 2 major hurricanes or 3?

[Lindaloo]

imo.... once you call the storms for the season you should stick to them. if it is a bust then he needs to face the fact that he busted. everybody makes mistakes.

[Anonymous]

Agree 100% Linda.

[Stormsfury]

imo.... once you call the storms for the season you should stick to them. if it is a bust then he needs to face the fact that he busted. everybody makes mistakes.

Agreed 100% also. I made my predictions in early/mid May and I continue to stand by mine. I'm sure Supercane/TWW are doing the same on their end as well.

SF

[mf_dolphin]

From our standpoint I agree. I think we should remember that Gray's forecasts are used by some to make plans for the balance of the season. It that light I can see why he revises his numbers throughout the season. We can always compare our initial estimates to his first numbers for fun!

I'm still holding my initial numbers as well

[ColdFront77]

I technically agree with all above me, however... updating forecasts does make sense after days, week and a few months.