When will we see our next hurricane?

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When will we see our next hurricane? Not TS, but cane

August 6th - August 13th
0
No votes
August 14th - August 21st
11
44%
August 22nd - August 29th
11
44%
August 30th - September 6th
3
12%
September 7th - September 14th
0
No votes
September 7th - September 14th
0
No votes
September 15th - September 22nd
0
No votes
September 23rd - September 30th
0
No votes
Not until October!
0
No votes
Next year, we're done this year! :-)
0
No votes
 
Total votes: 25
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southerngale
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When will we see our next hurricane?

#1 Postby southerngale » Tue Aug 05, 2003 8:46 pm

Another poll just to see what folks are thinking! ;)

Please include comments if you have any. 8-)
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#2 Postby Guest » Tue Aug 05, 2003 8:50 pm

Wow I'm the first one to vote LOL....well after looking at the timeframe of the storms from last year - I think we will have to wait until after labor day.

Just my two cents.
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#3 Postby southerngale » Tue Aug 05, 2003 8:55 pm

lol ticka...I had just posted the poll 4 minutes earlier.

I voted August 14th - August 21st. I think this little lull after a busy June and July will come to an end soon. I see this as the calm before the storm. :o
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#4 Postby mf_dolphin » Tue Aug 05, 2003 9:01 pm

I went with the 14th-21st as well. The wave coming off Africa looks pretty good and with the CV train dumping waves out I don't think it will be long until we have a cane to track :-)
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#5 Postby ameriwx2003 » Tue Aug 05, 2003 9:18 pm

Yep same with me. 14th thru the 21st. Once things get going I have a feeling it could come in bunches:):)i
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#6 Postby rainstorm » Tue Aug 05, 2003 9:33 pm

i dont see any favorable areas anywhere right now.
it will be awhile. 23-29
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#7 Postby Toni - 574 » Tue Aug 05, 2003 9:33 pm

I'll 2nd,3rd,4th, and 5th that! :)

I hear the train a commin, it's.... LOL
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#8 Postby OtherHD » Tue Aug 05, 2003 10:35 pm

Interesting poll...I'm torn between the 14th-21st and 22nd-29th. Personally, I am leaning slightly toward the latter...based on the timing negative phase of the MJO. Now that's not to say we won't get a tropical storm between now and then, but based strictly on hurricanes...I am with Helen on this one.

22nd-29th
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#9 Postby vbhoutex » Tue Aug 05, 2003 11:22 pm

For once I am with Helen and Lyle. The possibility/probability of a TS is there prior to that with the "Wavy train" chugging along like it is, but I think the final kicker to move us to another Hurricane won't be in place until aabout two weeks hence or more. I am talking about the MJO icoming back to the Atlantic which should enhance tropical cyclogenesis.
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#10 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 06, 2003 5:45 am

I agree with HD and that is why I voted from the 22 to the 29 because of the MJO factor negative buy then.
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#11 Postby JCT777 » Wed Aug 06, 2003 9:08 am

I too think the 22nd through the 29th will be the time frame for the next hurricane. I believe conditions will start becoming more favorable in the tropical Atlantic after August 15, but we won't see a cane until after August 21.
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#12 Postby GalvestonDuck » Wed Aug 06, 2003 10:14 am

I agree with Ticka. I said Aug. 30th - Sept 6th.
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#13 Postby Colin » Wed Aug 06, 2003 10:34 am

22nd---29th
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#14 Postby Guest » Wed Aug 06, 2003 10:47 am

Yeah Duck - thanks for agreeing with me !!! LOL
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#15 Postby southerngale » Wed Aug 06, 2003 11:46 am

ticka was getting lonesome...hehe :22:
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#16 Postby Guest » Wed Aug 06, 2003 12:23 pm

I'll probably eat crow on this prediction - could it be possible to have three more weeks with no activity or develoment?

Patricia
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#17 Postby southerngale » Wed Aug 06, 2003 12:47 pm

Now why would you think that ticka?

Btw...crow can't be too bad...we all set ourselves up to eat it! ;)
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#18 Postby JetMaxx » Wed Aug 06, 2003 3:06 pm

I voted between August 22-29....just a hunch.
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#19 Postby Stormsfury » Wed Aug 06, 2003 3:16 pm

I voted August 14th-21st. However, I may have some added help looking at some LR prognostic models ... Aside, not from the current wave coming off of Africa, but the one behind poised to come off in the next 2-3 days may actually lay down a foundation and set the stage for the 14th-21st timeframe.

Some of the LR models I got a chance to glimpse across indicated a potential for a TS development right around the middle of August, just in time to coincide the return of the negative MJO phase.

SF
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#20 Postby mahmoo » Wed Aug 06, 2003 3:25 pm

I'm going with Aug 22-29th. No scientific reason.....just seems like a good week for a hurricane :D
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