When will we see our next hurricane?

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply

When will we see our next hurricane? Not TS, but cane

August 6th - August 13th
0
No votes
August 14th - August 21st
11
44%
August 22nd - August 29th
11
44%
August 30th - September 6th
3
12%
September 7th - September 14th
0
No votes
September 7th - September 14th
0
No votes
September 15th - September 22nd
0
No votes
September 23rd - September 30th
0
No votes
Not until October!
0
No votes
Next year, we're done this year! :-)
0
No votes
 
Total votes: 25
Message
Author
User avatar
southerngale
Retired Staff
Retired Staff
Posts: 27418
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 1:27 am
Location: Southeast Texas (Beaumont area)

When will we see our next hurricane?

#1 Postby southerngale » Tue Aug 05, 2003 8:46 pm

Another poll just to see what folks are thinking! ;)

Please include comments if you have any. 8-)
0 likes   
Please support Storm2k by making a donation today. It is greatly appreciated! Click here: Image

Image my Cowboys Image my RocketsImage my Astros
Top
Guest

#2 Postby Guest » Tue Aug 05, 2003 8:50 pm

Wow I'm the first one to vote LOL....well after looking at the timeframe of the storms from last year - I think we will have to wait until after labor day.

Just my two cents.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
southerngale
Retired Staff
Retired Staff
Posts: 27418
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 1:27 am
Location: Southeast Texas (Beaumont area)

#3 Postby southerngale » Tue Aug 05, 2003 8:55 pm

lol ticka...I had just posted the poll 4 minutes earlier.

I voted August 14th - August 21st. I think this little lull after a busy June and July will come to an end soon. I see this as the calm before the storm. :o
0 likes   
Please support Storm2k by making a donation today. It is greatly appreciated! Click here: Image

Image my Cowboys Image my RocketsImage my Astros
Top
User avatar
mf_dolphin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 17758
Age: 69
Joined: Tue Oct 08, 2002 2:05 pm
Location: St Petersburg, FL
Contact:
Contact mf_dolphin

#4 Postby mf_dolphin » Tue Aug 05, 2003 9:01 pm

I went with the 14th-21st as well. The wave coming off Africa looks pretty good and with the CV train dumping waves out I don't think it will be long until we have a cane to track :-)
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ameriwx2003
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 980
Joined: Tue Jul 22, 2003 10:45 am

#5 Postby ameriwx2003 » Tue Aug 05, 2003 9:18 pm

Yep same with me. 14th thru the 21st. Once things get going I have a feeling it could come in bunches:):)i
0 likes   
Top
rainstorm

#6 Postby rainstorm » Tue Aug 05, 2003 9:33 pm

i dont see any favorable areas anywhere right now.
it will be awhile. 23-29
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Toni - 574
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 493
Joined: Wed May 28, 2003 9:20 pm
Location: W. Central Florida

#7 Postby Toni - 574 » Tue Aug 05, 2003 9:33 pm

I'll 2nd,3rd,4th, and 5th that! :)

I hear the train a commin, it's.... LOL
0 likes   
Top
OtherHD
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2192
Age: 39
Joined: Tue Oct 08, 2002 10:01 am
Location: San Antonio, TX

#8 Postby OtherHD » Tue Aug 05, 2003 10:35 pm

Interesting poll...I'm torn between the 14th-21st and 22nd-29th. Personally, I am leaning slightly toward the latter...based on the timing negative phase of the MJO. Now that's not to say we won't get a tropical storm between now and then, but based strictly on hurricanes...I am with Helen on this one.

22nd-29th
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
vbhoutex
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 29133
Age: 74
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
Location: Cypress, TX
Contact:
Contact vbhoutex

#9 Postby vbhoutex » Tue Aug 05, 2003 11:22 pm

For once I am with Helen and Lyle. The possibility/probability of a TS is there prior to that with the "Wavy train" chugging along like it is, but I think the final kicker to move us to another Hurricane won't be in place until aabout two weeks hence or more. I am talking about the MJO icoming back to the Atlantic which should enhance tropical cyclogenesis.
0 likes   
Skywarn, C.E.R.T.
Please click below to donate to STORM2K to help with the expenses of keeping the site going:
Image
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148487
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#10 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 06, 2003 5:45 am

I agree with HD and that is why I voted from the 22 to the 29 because of the MJO factor negative buy then.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
JCT777
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6251
Joined: Mon Oct 14, 2002 9:21 am
Location: Spring Mount, PA
Contact:
Contact JCT777

#11 Postby JCT777 » Wed Aug 06, 2003 9:08 am

I too think the 22nd through the 29th will be the time frame for the next hurricane. I believe conditions will start becoming more favorable in the tropical Atlantic after August 15, but we won't see a cane until after August 21.
0 likes   
Top
GalvestonDuck
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 15941
Age: 57
Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2002 8:11 am
Location: Galveston, oh Galveston (And yeah, it's a barrier island. Wanna make something of it?)

#12 Postby GalvestonDuck » Wed Aug 06, 2003 10:14 am

I agree with Ticka. I said Aug. 30th - Sept 6th.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Colin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5086
Joined: Fri Apr 18, 2003 4:17 pm
Location: Catasauqua, PA
Contact:
Contact Colin

#13 Postby Colin » Wed Aug 06, 2003 10:34 am

22nd---29th
0 likes   
Top
Guest

#14 Postby Guest » Wed Aug 06, 2003 10:47 am

Yeah Duck - thanks for agreeing with me !!! LOL
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
southerngale
Retired Staff
Retired Staff
Posts: 27418
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 1:27 am
Location: Southeast Texas (Beaumont area)

#15 Postby southerngale » Wed Aug 06, 2003 11:46 am

ticka was getting lonesome...hehe :22:
0 likes   
Please support Storm2k by making a donation today. It is greatly appreciated! Click here: Image

Image my Cowboys Image my RocketsImage my Astros
Top
Guest

#16 Postby Guest » Wed Aug 06, 2003 12:23 pm

I'll probably eat crow on this prediction - could it be possible to have three more weeks with no activity or develoment?

Patricia
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
southerngale
Retired Staff
Retired Staff
Posts: 27418
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 1:27 am
Location: Southeast Texas (Beaumont area)

#17 Postby southerngale » Wed Aug 06, 2003 12:47 pm

Now why would you think that ticka?

Btw...crow can't be too bad...we all set ourselves up to eat it! ;)
0 likes   
Please support Storm2k by making a donation today. It is greatly appreciated! Click here: Image

Image my Cowboys Image my RocketsImage my Astros
Top
JetMaxx

#18 Postby JetMaxx » Wed Aug 06, 2003 3:06 pm

I voted between August 22-29....just a hunch.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Stormsfury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10549
Age: 53
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
Location: Summerville, SC

#19 Postby Stormsfury » Wed Aug 06, 2003 3:16 pm

I voted August 14th-21st. However, I may have some added help looking at some LR prognostic models ... Aside, not from the current wave coming off of Africa, but the one behind poised to come off in the next 2-3 days may actually lay down a foundation and set the stage for the 14th-21st timeframe.

Some of the LR models I got a chance to glimpse across indicated a potential for a TS development right around the middle of August, just in time to coincide the return of the negative MJO phase.

SF
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
mahmoo
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 98
Joined: Mon Jun 02, 2003 6:52 pm
Location: Lafayette, LA

#20 Postby mahmoo » Wed Aug 06, 2003 3:25 pm

I'm going with Aug 22-29th. No scientific reason.....just seems like a good week for a hurricane :D
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Killjoy12 and 60 guests