12:00 UTC tropical models update:Puerto Rico on bullseye

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Aug 05, 2003 8:01 am

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/03080512

Wow according to this run from the models Puerto Rico will be under the gun but they do not develop it before it arrives here.

Colin · #2 Postby **Colin** » Tue Aug 05, 2003 8:42 am

You better keep an eye on that, Luis, and stay safe if it does come over your area, albeit not developed.

ameriwx2003 · #3 Postby **ameriwx2003** » Tue Aug 05, 2003 9:00 am

Yes the models are shifting west, even the LBAR is further west before its takes a more nw/ n/nw turn. Lets see if the west trend continues:):). and lets see if this can develope first . Either way SHIPS doesn't make this into a strong system:):)

Stormsfury · #4 Postby **Stormsfury** » Tue Aug 05, 2003 9:21 am

ameriwx2003 wrote:Yes the models are shifting west, even the LBAR is further west before its takes a more nw/ n/nw turn. Lets see if the west trend continues:):). and lets see if this can develope first . Either way SHIPS doesn't make this into a strong system:):)

Use the DSHPS for intensity forecasts here ... cause SHIPS doesn't see land masses.

ameriwx2003 · #5 Postby **ameriwx2003** » Tue Aug 05, 2003 9:59 am

Stormsfury. Thanks. I was wondering what the differences in the 2 ships models were:):) Ok here is my next question. The dshp factors in land but does in generate its own track or is a certain model track used ?

Steve H. · #6 Postby **Steve H.** » Tue Aug 05, 2003 10:24 am

Be careful though when using intensity models. They are used for guidance and they will change when this becomes Erika. If she cuts throught the island chain and gets into the Bahamas, it can intensify rather rapidly. I would use these for guidance of position only. This one has me a bit concerned down the road (can ya tell?) :wink:

Cheers!!

Stormsfury · #7 Postby **Stormsfury** » Tue Aug 05, 2003 10:52 am

ameriwx2003 wrote:Stormsfury. Thanks. I was wondering what the differences in the 2 ships models were:):) Ok here is my next question. The dshp factors in land but does in generate its own track or is a certain model track used ?

In regards to land track, I don't think so.

ameriwx2003 · #8 Postby **ameriwx2003** » Tue Aug 05, 2003 11:28 am

I did a little surfing to see if I could find info about the DSHP model. This link provides some nice info on the models used for hurricane forecasting:):)

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ssd/nwpmodel/html/nhcmodel.htm

Stormsfury · #9 Postby **Stormsfury** » Tue Aug 05, 2003 11:35 am

Good find, Ameriwx2003.

12:00 UTC tropical models update:Puerto Rico on bullseye

12:00 UTC tropical models update:Puerto Rico on bullseye

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