00Z TROPICAL MODEL RUN

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ameriwx2003
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00Z TROPICAL MODEL RUN

#1 Postby ameriwx2003 » Mon Aug 04, 2003 7:54 pm

Interesting , somwwhat of a scatter witht he track but of real interest to me is the SHIPS intensity forecast in the later periods:):)

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/03080500
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#2 Postby Stormsfury » Mon Aug 04, 2003 8:04 pm

Keeps shifting more westward ...

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#3 Postby mf_dolphin » Mon Aug 04, 2003 8:08 pm

The convection is really going poof this evening. We'll have to see if anything is left to make a system from :-)
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#4 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 04, 2003 8:11 pm

As you said SF that NW track that the models showed earlier was wrong and now a more west track is shown by them.
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#5 Postby ColdFront77 » Mon Aug 04, 2003 8:14 pm

Convection keeps coming and going, but it develops near what may be a center.
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Anonymous

90L looks ragged :(

#6 Postby Anonymous » Mon Aug 04, 2003 8:27 pm

Just checked the sat pic and it looks like 90L has seen better days. I cant believe the NHC actually has a recon scheduled for this. Well, things can change and anything is possible. Ships is actually up in its 4cast... was keeping it in the 20s kts range so we'll see. Hopefully things look better for it
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90L

#7 Postby wxman57 » Mon Aug 04, 2003 9:00 pm

The NHC doesn't really have recon scheduled, just listed as a possibility should the system develop overnight. Taking a look at the latest satellite, I don't think there will be any actual flight tomorrow, and probably not the next day unless there is some drastic change in organization. There's nothing left but a tiny low-level swirl (if that). Shear still looks pretty significant on WV loops and in the progs.
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#8 Postby Toni - 574 » Mon Aug 04, 2003 9:05 pm

I'm beginning to think it has 9 lives. :)
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#9 Postby wow » Mon Aug 04, 2003 9:05 pm

ahh, you were once a beautiful vibrant young wave, little one.....

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#10 Postby ameriwx2003 » Mon Aug 04, 2003 9:08 pm

Yes it does look rough right now. I do have a question wxman57. I am having a friendly argument with a friend about one of the tropical models. I think you or someone else may have mentioned it. The A98E is a control model isn't it. What I mean is it doesn't rely on real time weather data but is a climo model. Am I correct?:):)
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