Wave is being rated again at dvorak T number now 1.5

[Tip]

After not raing this system for over 24 hours, the SSD now has it as 1.5/1.5.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[cycloneye]

Ummm interesting that development but still not the ideal conditions however it is now moving more slow and that could be important for it to organize more but time will tell.

[rainstorm]

the east coast and florida are open, if it would just develop

[vbhoutex]

Interesting that they have upped the Dvorak no to 1.5, but I am not sure why either Luis. The convection is firing near the mid-level CC but isn't anything to get excited about IMO.

[Steve H.]

Rainstorm, when you say open does that mean the flow is conducive to continue to bring it WNW or is a ridge expectied to develop in the western atlantic. Haven't had time to look at the overall medium and long range maps; don't have time this am. Reason I ask is the wave is beginning to look better organized. That being sasid looks like there is something to its north moving down that could again impede development. Not sure if that's an ULL or some other system, or if it will make it that far south to disrupt the wave's future. Thoughts?? Thanks. Cheers!!

[Tip]

It's interesting to see what's happening on a global synoptic scale. We have had and are still having a pulse of tropical activity in the WPAC. Etau is now progged to slam the southern Japanese island chain with 120 knot wind and there is another one behind. Originally, the WPAC models had ETAU curving harmlessly out to sea. In the Atlantic, the NAO is starting to tank and will continue for about a week. I don't follow the MJO too much but heard its positive. How these factors translate to activity in the Atlantic I'm not sure, but they are definitely not stagnant.

[Rainband]

I wouldn't mind another erin like in 96..or was it 95??? Lots of rain and some wind..she was a cane but by the time she got here a TS!!! Time will tell The wave does look better today!!

[GulfBreezer]

Erin was 1995! I remember her well and am not sending her a Christmas card, she was not my friend!

[Rainband]

Erin was 1995! I remember her well and am not sending her a Christmas card, she was not my friend!

Sorry!!! I just thought it wasn't bad for me did she reintensify after crossing florida?

[rainstorm]

Rainstorm, when you say open does that mean the flow is conducive to continue to bring it WNW or is a ridge expectied to develop in the western atlantic. Haven't had time to look at the overall medium and long range maps; don't have time this am. Reason I ask is the wave is beginning to look better organized. That being sasid looks like there is something to its north moving down that could again impede development. Not sure if that's an ULL or some other system, or if it will make it that far south to disrupt the wave's future. Thoughts?? Thanks. Cheers!!

but you are right, a big ull is forming north of pr. not good

[ameriwx2003]

A deepening trof also will be effecting the Southeast later this week. Here is an excerpt from the Key West AFD. The GFS does have a tendency to bring the mean trof to far east . So if 90L does form it will be interesting to see just were that trof lies in the 5 day + period:):). and when the ridge starts to build back in:):)

.THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE ATLANTIC HIGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND RETREAT AS DEEP TROUGH
PUSHES UNUSUALLY FAR INTO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH THE GFS SHOWING THIS
TROUGH PUSHING INTO CENTRAL AND EVEN SOUTH FLORIDA BY FRIDAY
EVENING. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE THROUGH SATURDAY...AND
UPDATE AS THE SITUATION EVOLVES.

[ColdFront77]

90L looked better this morning, than it does now, but nonetheless the convection that flared up was better than nothing and may lead to even more impressive development. We shall see what happens today and this week.

Yes indeed, Hurricane Erin was in 1995. The anniversary in fact was this past Saturday... August 2.

There was a lot of damage in and around the Orlando area with Erin.