WHY NO DEVELOPMENT?

[Toni - 574]

Well 90L is trying it's best to hang on but is having a very difficult time. I have to say that I feel that the shear monster has played a bigger part in this than what a lot of people think. Also, the SAL is certainly out there. I don't know a whole lot about it but,but sure does seem to be playing a role in non-development. It is still early August and we may be expecting to much right now, give it a couple more weeks and I bet we will start to see more development.

I am very interested to hear from everyone and what you think is going on?

[Air Force Met]

The SAL is a big reason. However, we do have a naked swirl now. Normally...this is a bad sign. However, in teh case of 90L it's not so bad. Most of the convection throughout its life has been away from the center and this is the first time in it's existence that it has had a good low level circulation. So...given the choice b/w a lot of tstms away from the weak center and no tstms near but a good LLC...I'll take the later. Of course...neither situation is a good sign of immediate intensification. Wait and see is the motto of the Wx biz...and again we must repeat it.

[vbhoutex]

The SAL did play a role in the current state of 90L and a bigger role than I thought it would. It appears to be an ever changing amoeba all over the subtropical Atlantic and Caribbean basins. It will be interesting to see what comes out of studies currently in progress about the SAL. Shear didn't come into play too much till yesterday, imo, but now with the TUTT still out in front of it will continue to play a role in hindering development. I'm not sure if 90L will be able to hold together to "redevelop" further down the road. I do know I still have at least one eye on the tropics though.

[Air Force Met]

Just ttok a look at the lower level air. It is sucking in some dry air from the south side...and some really dry air on the east side in the mid-levels. I think the high located to 90L's SE (which is what caused it to slow) is pulling down some of that dry air and sending it into the south side of the circulation. 925mb RH's are in the 60-70% range...and 700mb Rh's are in the 40's and 50% range. It does improve after tomorrow night and by Tuesday morning the RH's are respectable again. However, by that time it is going to be fighting some southerly shear from the TUTT that will be dropping to it's NW. It has a very small window of opportunity b/w tomorrow night and Tuesday night. After that...the shear becomes a problem...plus the interaction with the GA's.