Trend to fizzle systems east of islands continues

[cycloneye]

Well folks as I see the latest pics of that tropical wave east of the islands it looks more and more that it wont develop before it reaches the islands.I was waiting for it to reach 50w to see if it was going to develop as conditions are better after that longitud but it looks worse and worse every hour I look.

The trend this season has been for bonifide systems like TD#2,tropical wave/Claudette,TD#6 and other impressive waves that haved emerged africa in june and july to fizzle out before they reach the antilles.What is the cause shear,sal,the strong azores high that the atlantic has been so hostil and there is no el nino to blame it.

Ok maybe it was june and july and still things are not so favorable normally in those 2 months but we are now in august and it is still going on now with the wave east of the islands.

I say it is the sal factor but there has to be something more than that to cause the fizzle of the waves.Now I wonder of the whole cape verde season will be like this or all will be favorable comming the peak by late august to mid september.

Be free to post some anaylisis about this any of you to see if we can find a real cause for what is going on in the atlantic.

[Anonymous]

We're not supposed to get development that far out this early to begin with. This is a plus.

[Lindaloo]

Why is it a plus?

[cycloneye]

But TWW we are in august now not at june nor july and the trend to dissipate systems east of the islands continues.

[Anonymous]

In a normal season, we wouldn't have even seen as much Cape Verde activity as we have been seeing. A few systems did fizzle, but at least there was something to fizzle in the first place.

[Anonymous]

Its August 2nd and the tropics don't pay attention to what month it is. The CV season doesn't get going until mid August.


THE 2003 HURRICANE SEASON IS RUNNING WELL AHEAD OF CLIMATOLOGY...
WITH 4 NAMED STORMS AND 2 HURRICANES SO FAR. IN AN AVERAGE
YEAR...1.6 NAMED STORMS AND 0.6 HURRICANES WOULD HAVE OCCURRED BY
THE END OF JULY. NOAA WILL UPDATE ITS 2003 SEASONAL FORECAST ON
AUGUST 7TH.

[cycloneye]

Well the good thing about this is that the islands are not threatened by a TS or a cane because the systems fade east of them but yes TWW and SC the CV season is only starting and I who live in hurricane alley knows that the prime time of the season is weeks away.I only brought this topic for all to analize why the systems fade east of the islands.

[Anonymous]

np

[grentz7721]

The CV season wasn't as good back in 2002. 2003 could have less
numbers during the CV season.

[rainstorm]

the start of the season featured alot of dried up systems as well. ana was a fluke. bill was of non tropical origin. claudette fought horrible conditions all the way across the ocean. danny went nowhere, and we had several td's that got blasted. this season looks alot like last season in that the waves are dried up and puny. the sal is a major factor. also, as long as the west pac is so active, and the indian monsoon is rather weak, the dry air will continue in the atlantic. the wave that came off africe after 90l has also poofed . also there are ull's everywhere like last season. jb brought up a good point. even if an ull is not nearby, the upper temps in the deep tropics are generally too cool for much development.

[cycloneye]

No rainstorm on the contrary on the sst's front they are in fact more warmer than in the past 3 years or more as in many postions of the atlantic warmer than average temps are found.Also rainstorm we are 5 weeks away from the peak of the season so it is too early to claim that the season is closed to developments.Again I only made this topic to point out the trend going on as systems near the islands to fizzle and what explanation we can find about that.