Typhoon Usagi intercept thread - storm surge video now added

[Typhoon Hunter]

I thought I would start a new thread since I've decided to try and intercept typhoon Usagi if and when it makes landfall in Kyushu, southern Japan. Since I missed out on typhoon Man-yi I'm keen to try and make it to mainland Japan to intercept a typhoon there.

As of the current update Usagi is blowing 70kts (10min) according to JMA and is forecast to strike in the vicinity of Miyazaki on the south coast at about 3am local time (BST +8) on the morning of the 3rd August. The details are going to change and I'll post them here as often as I can.

I'm booked on a 1040 flight to Fukuoka tomorrow morning and will then make my way to Miyazaki and take things from there (ie run half way accross Japan if the track changes significantly!! )

More updates to follow!

[alan1961]

Give us a wave Typhoon and we'll try and pick you up on google earth..hahaha

[Chacor]

Looking forward to your reports James, stay safe.

[Chacor]

Latest JMA track has it still making landfall on Kyushu, I wish you good luck in your attempt to intercept it.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Thanks for the messages guys.

Usagi seems to have regained some oommph in it's western eyewall. Up to 80kts and still on track for Kyushu.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Urghhh....just woken up and will be heading to Shanghai airport in 25 minutes. Usagi is blowing 80kts (10 min) according to JMA. JTWC has gone bananas and has this at 115kts and expecting 120kt landfall!

More updates once I'm on the ground in Japan.

[Cyclone1]

Good luck man! I wanna go....

[Noles2006]

Awesome man!

Good luck and stay safe!

[KatDaddy]

Be safe my friend and enjoy. Give us updates when you can. It looks very impressive on satellite. Wrapped up well with a large eye.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Thanks for the messages!

I've arrived safely in Fukuoka and am now en route to Miyazaki on the south coast of Kyushu. Usagi is now a very powerful 90kt typhoon according to JMA and still on track to smack Miyazaki region. I'll post further update once I'm in Miyazaki.

TY 0705 (USAGI)
Issued at 03:00 UTC, 1 August 2007RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0705 USAGI (0705)

ANALYSIS
PSTN 010300UTC 25.7N 136.5E GOOD
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 240NM EAST 160NM WEST

FORECAST
24HF 020300UTC 30.2N 132.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 030000UTC 33.6N 131.6E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 040000UTC 37.7N 135.1E 290NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT

BTW JTWC is still going bananas, 120kts at the mo, forecast up to 130kts with cat 4 115kts landfall. I know it's not official but I thought I'd mention it!

[brunota2003]

JTWC, do they go just by the Dvorvak (sp) T Numbers? I noticed their winds fell in line with the T Numbers...

[Chacor]

JTWC, do they go just by the Dvorvak (sp) T Numbers? I noticed their winds fell in line with the T Numbers...

Mainly just the Dvorak fixes but they do use other methods as well I think. Most of the time the prognostic mentions that intensity is based on T-numbers though.

[Aslkahuna]

OTOH JTWC has been using the Dvorak technique since the 1970's so there should be some experience with it there.

Steve

[Typhoon Hunter]

Hola!

I'm in the bustling town of Miyazaki on the Pacific coast of Kyushu! It was a very scenic bus ride through the island. The was plenty of evidence of previous floods and landslides as we drove along the mountain highway.

Current forecast suggest landfall to the north of Miyazaki near the town of Nobeoka. I will be rising every three hours through the night to check the updates and if the current forecast is still holding true I'll be making my way to Nobeoka first thing tomorrow morning.

JMA expecting landfall at 90kts at 6pm local time and JTWC going for 7pm landfall. I'm hoping to get lucky and snag this as a daylight landfall. Off to 7-11 now for some sushi and a beer!

[HURAKAN]

Try to stay safe and good luck!!

[Typhoon Hunter]

Thanks Hurakan.

JMA expect further intensification over the next 12 hours to 95kts, 940 hPa.

WTJP21 RJTD 010600
WARNING 010600.
WARNING VALID 020600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.

TYPHOON 0705 USAGI (0705) 945 HPA
AT 26.2N 135.9E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 16 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES
ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 28.6N 133.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 31.4N 132.0E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 36.4N 132.4E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 40.9N 138.8E WITH 270 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[Typhoon Hunter]

I'll be arriving in the town of Nobeoka at 0811 local time this morning. The town is expected to sustain a direct hit with winds of 90kts (10 min average.) Conditions are already deteriorating in the region with frequent squalls of strong wind and heavy rain - the usual pre-typhoon conditions.

More updates once I'm in position.

[Beam]

Have fun, and try not to do anything foolish! (well, more foolish)

[Typhoon Hunter]

Arrived in Nobeoka, small town of about 35,000 people. Quite a few shops are shut but loads of traffic on the street and the train station was bustling.

I've found a good hotel near the main river (anyone thinking major flooding) and gonna head out soon to take some pictures.

Current conditions are pretty calm.

[Chacor]

BUMP!