I know you all dont like JB......but......

[hurricanedude]

Here is a small snippet from his special friday evening post, I am using the free trial period before i cance, no way i would pay for this but since its free for now, i will share..this is what he says as of 6pm

So it is important to me that at the very least the reader sees something try to blow up and run the coast this weekend.

We do now have a low level vortex developing at 27.1 north and 67.8 west. Both the ETA and the GFS are now starting to pick up on this, the ETA most notably with a very dynamic look from the 500 to 200 mb level and now even a surface development that rides north. Both models ride the upper feature that is starting the whole deal, but then reverses with height north into Long Island and New England Monday.

While I will be away tomorrow, I will be studying and posting on this. The water is very warm all the way up to off the VA Capes in its path and if we see convection sustaining itself and reforming over the center, chances are we will have possible visitor from the tropics affecting the east coast from Hatteras north over the weekend

[Colin]

Wow...way cool...I seriously doubt it but we'll see.

[Scott_inVA]

swells? Yes.
rip currents? Maybe.
nice Nags Head surf? Sure.
TC. Nope.

Convection still not holding together ATTM. Prevailing winds by Sunday again will be SW/SSW along coast. Trof isn't going to suck this thing into NC/VA (how's that for anti-wishcasting ). Think best chances of wx still will come from s/w's rolling through bottom of advancing trof.

Just for fun, did a quickie 18Z with Eta (maroon) and NOGAPS (navy blue ). GFS very aggressive with ridge building back west and doesn't show much, least at 18Z.

http://wrel.com/wx/AL262003.jpg

Image isn't linked on model map page...just here.

scott

[wxman57]

Hey, I love listening to Joe every morning! It's good to see what the competition is saying (we have TWC on 24hrs a day, too). But doesn't he look like he slept under a bridge? As for this system, I just think he is having a hard time giving up on tropical development. I can see a weak low, maybe even a TD, tracking east of Hatteras on Sunday, but certainly not any significant tropical development. Just a bit of rain mostly offshore.

[Stephanie]

:o *GULP*

The ETA track shows some potential problems for the Jersey Shore! I guess we'll just have to wait and see, but I would think it would have to be moving pretty darn quickly to make it up here for the end of the weekend.

[rainstorm]

i like jb!!

[Scott_inVA]

:o *GULP*

The ETA track shows some potential problems for the Jersey Shore! I guess we'll just have to wait and see, but I would think it would have to be moving pretty darn quickly to make it up here for the end of the weekend.

Stephanie,

Just uploaded the 0Z Eta (same link).
The Eta is recurving the vort around the Ridge as well.

Scott

[OtherHD]

i like jb!!

wonderful

[Air Force Met]

He's like beer...an aquired taste. I guess being a met I know not to take total stock in what anyone says...but I like to hear what he says. He has a lot of good ideas on general circulation, climo...etc. At least he tries. The NWS is not any better and is afraid to go out on a limb. If I had to stack him up against the average NWS guy...he would win and they would lose. Are there some in the NWS that are better? Sure. THere is always someone better than you in someone else's eyes. He has good ideas. Does he get it wrong sometimes? Yep. OF course...being a forecaster myself I have missed a few too.

[JetMaxx]

Dude, if this develops...will it be a Bahama Mama...or a Hatteras Honey??

[Scott_inVA]

...If I had to stack him up against the average NWS guy...he would win and they would lose.. .

No one at NWS has the luxury of broad-brush synoptic forecasting/honkcasting...which is what JB does. I suspect if you pick an FO anywhere in the country, take a met with 5 years service in the office, he will beat Bastardi (or most anyone else 8 out of 10 times) on ZFPs or regional outlooks.

BTW, I've tracked local ZFPs from NWS against TWC, Accu wx and me... I'm in second place, Accu ain't in first Am I better than they are? Of course not, but I do understand climo for the area my radio station's forecast...he doesn't, never will and couldn't care less.

JB offers alternative products from NOAA. Therefore, he is a salesman. How many watched his vids last year for free versus are paying now? If he ain't juicing things up to keep subscribers coming back, he isn't selling. No selling = no audience. And if one understands AccuWeather's true agenda (wiping out NWS, getting all gov't products for free then create pretty graphics for profit), one understands why JB will always rip 'em.

Interesting views? I suppose. Better local forecasts in the markets he broadcast to...not on a consistent basis.

Scott

[ameriwx2003]

Jetmax if something like that developes this year I can pretty much guess J.B. will need to be tranqulized lol.. though J.B. knows his stuff, does he hype?, well he is not boring thats for sure:):)

[Stormsfury]

Scott .... thank you for that post above and I am absolutely ecstatic that someone else sees JB for what he does ... HYPE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

SF

[Tip]

You can rip him all you want, but he has an uncanny ability to sniff out tropical trouble spots in the long range.

[Air Force Met]

Sorry Scott...don't see that. Been in this Biz for 16 years as an Air Force Met...and I am not that impressed with the NWS. Maybe it is local...and maybe you've got good local people. Don't know. All I know is what my experience with them tells me. Why? Because most of them are model readers. That is an old air force forecaster term for what we see happening in the wx biz. JB calls it model worship. The NHC does it ALL the time. DIfference in the models? Heck...split the diff and put the track down the middle.

Does JB hype? Yep. He also knows his stuff. You can take what you want from anyone. If I chose to target someone on this site that views themself as an excellent forcaster because I don't like them...I can bring them down weather wise. We all do it. IF you don't like JB...you will find every little problem and point it out then call it hype. I've seen just the opposite on this board and in the chat room. Some people like certain "forecasters". I use the quotes because I am uncertain of credentials. Anyway...they like them and hold their forecasts up...even though they may not be that good and when averaged next to someone like JB...are not near as good on longrange or shortrange. Everyone has a good streak and a bad one.

Bottom line: It is all a matter of taste. Your taste is made by what your experience and bias directs. I have a bias against (not that think they are always wrong) the NHC and the NWS. Why? Experience. I've forecasted "against" them for 16 years. I put out seperate TAF's for our planes and of course I look at theirs. I know who is more accurate. I can't get away with puttng out a TAF that says PROB30 for thunderstorms. Wish I could I have a bias against the NHC. Why? experience again. I have to put out forecasts for a military customer and they want my opinion...and that often varies from the NHC. I suppose the straw was 2001 when the TWO has nothing and Allison was brewing in the Central GOM.

So...it is all taste and experience. That is why you feel one way and I feel another. To me...JB is just another tool I use to put out a product. He's like a METCON...a tool I use to make sure I didn't miss anything and I will use that tool over the NWS/NHC anyday. Just my opinion and my tastes. Nothing right or wrong about it. Just as your opinions and Stormsfury's is the opposite. You use the tools you need to. If your real job is met...and that pays your bills...it makes all this a little harder. If you are not a met and this is just fun...then you are a lot more free to use only the tools you like. I don't have that option considering I need to make the most informed opinion possible. I do that from using my skills...the NHC opinions...and the opinions others. To not use all the tools available is neglegence...if you are a pro-met. If not...then who cares?

[Air Force Met]

BTW...some of you guys are tools too This board is a tool and the chat room is a tool. Everyone of us misses things from time to time...or more often...and when dealing with Chaos...it will be that thing you missed that will nail you.

Also...wanted to say that I know the NWS has good forecasters in it. The SOO at Upton NY is a good friend of mine and is one of the best forecasters I have ever met for winter...or tropical...or severe. This guy does it all and does it all real well. Of course...he's also old air force

[Thunder44]

I agree with you Air Force Met. This idea that JB or Accuweather or any private met, hypes stuff or disagrees with the government just to get more subscribers or for the sake of it, is just very hard to believe. Why would you forecast or hype something that you don't believe will happen? While Accuweather may benifit from having different forecasts from the NWS or TPC, they wouldn't do so if they were wrong. People don't like to pay for the forecasts in the first place, so why would they pay for wrong forecasts? It's just sounds stupid to me for Accuweather to put out a forecast or any ideas that they didn't think would happen. It would hurt them more than being different from them. And I don't believe the people at Accuweather are stupid.

While I have alot of respect for the government weather service, the problem with them is they depend too much on computer models. Like in NYC while the governement kept going along with the GFS keeping winter storms to the south this past winter, JB thought they would get further north and they did. NWS waited till the GFS and other models shifted their tracks further north to change their forecasts.

[mf_dolphin]

My problem with JB on the tropics is that he tends to cover every possibility without really committing to anything. That way he always leaves the door open to say he was right. That's not forecasting IMO. I didn't read him when he was free and there's no way I'd pat for his stuff!

[Air Force Met]

I've seen him commit to plenty. To me...probability schemes are not forecasting...or forecasting PROB30...OR spliting the model difference when putting out your tropical track. That is NOT forecasting. It is taking the model average and making that the official forecast. The NHC does it all the time. At least JB says where he thinks it will go. He committed to Lili last year and was right on. He committed to claudette and was correct with the intensity forecast. So...again...it is all what you want to see. You don't want to see commital so you don't. He covers his bases and gives possibilities. That is what we do as forecasters. Sometimes we hit...and sometimes we bit the bullet.

[vbhoutex]

Sorry Scott...don't see that. Been in this Biz for 16 years as an Air Force Met...and I am not that impressed with the NWS. Maybe it is local...and maybe you've got good local people. Don't know. All I know is what my experience with them tells me. Why? Because most of them are model readers. That is an old air force forecaster term for what we see happening in the wx biz. JB calls it model worship. The NHC does it ALL the time. DIfference in the models? Heck...split the diff and put the track down the middle.

Does JB hype? Yep. He also knows his stuff. You can take what you want from anyone. If I chose to target someone on this site that views themself as an excellent forcaster because I don't like them...I can bring them down weather wise. We all do it. IF you don't like JB...you will find every little problem and point it out then call it hype. I've seen just the opposite on this board and in the chat room. Some people like certain "forecasters". I use the quotes because I am uncertain of credentials. Anyway...they like them and hold their forecasts up...even though they may not be that good and when averaged next to someone like JB...are not near as good on longrange or shortrange. Everyone has a good streak and a bad one.

Bottom line: It is all a matter of taste. Your taste is made by what your experience and bias directs. I have a bias against (not that think they are always wrong) the NHC and the NWS. Why? Experience. I've forecasted "against" them for 16 years. I put out seperate TAF's for our planes and of course I look at theirs. I know who is more accurate. I can't get away with puttng out a TAF that says PROB30 for thunderstorms. Wish I could I have a bias against the NHC. Why? experience again. I have to put out forecasts for a military customer and they want my opinion...and that often varies from the NHC. I suppose the straw was 2001 when the TWO has nothing and Allison was brewing in the Central GOM.

So...it is all taste and experience. That is why you feel one way and I feel another. To me...JB is just another tool I use to put out a product. He's like a METCON...a tool I use to make sure I didn't miss anything and I will use that tool over the NWS/NHC anyday. Just my opinion and my tastes. Nothing right or wrong about it. Just as your opinions and Stormsfury's is the opposite. You use the tools you need to. If your real job is met...and that pays your bills...it makes all this a little harder. If you are not a met and this is just fun...then you are a lot more free to use only the tools you like. I don't have that option considering I need to make the most informed opinion possible. I do that from using my skills...the NHC opinions...and the opinions others. To not use all the tools available is neglegence...if you are a pro-met. If not...then who cares?

Some very good points here gentlemen! I, to say the least am an AMATUER at forecasting. That is why I use the exact tools you are talking about AFM. I use everything I can get my hands on to come up with the more complicated forecasts I put out here. That does include some Promets from a couple of different sources including NWS friends. Like you said, and IMO, if one does not use everything at their disposal, you are doing both yourself and your "client" a disservice, whether it is for "fun" or for your job. I am not going to get into the discussion about who is better or worse, because like it or not the "experts" are the NHC and NWS, since they have the only "proven" credentials since someone like me can not go to work for them. I am not saying they are better or worse, just that those of us(the amatuers) that do not rely on our forecasts for a living have no business bashing them anymore than they have any business bashing us when we do it for "fun". BTW, I do take my forecasting and learning more and more about it very seriously and I do care if I bust a forecast and want to know what caused that bust. Do I live and die by those busts or getting it right? NO!! But I do care. We, even as amatuers, are trying to put out the best possible product we can here at Storm2k.