Question about TD#8.....

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Johnny
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Question about TD#8.....

#1 Postby Johnny » Thu Jul 31, 2003 10:30 am

I agree with most of you here that it is a TD but my question is, why hasn't the NHC upgraded it yet? What are they waiting for?
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#2 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 31, 2003 10:37 am

They are looking at all the enviromental conditions around to see if they are all favorable and also to see if only one LLC center is there because in systems that are in the organizing stages there may be multiple vortexes but they are trying to see if there is one dominant one.Doing that is prudent because they dont want to classifie it to a TD and in 12 hours it goes POOF.
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#3 Postby ColdFront77 » Thu Jul 31, 2003 12:44 pm

Makes sense to me. They are most likely on the verge of declaring it Tropical Depression #8, but don't think it deserves it quite yet. Perhaps by days end we will have a tropical depression to monitor, rather than a strong tropical wave.
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For one thing

#4 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jul 31, 2003 1:01 pm

For one thing, there hasn't been much convection near the center, and banding hadn't been too evident to the north of the center. But that appears to be changing. I estimate the center is up near 10N/35W as of 17:30Z. Squalls are developing near and north of the center now. The NHC may wait for a bit longer to make sure this trend continues. Possible TD at 4pm CDT, but they may wait for the convection to persist for 24hrs near the center.
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ColdFront77

#5 Postby ColdFront77 » Thu Jul 31, 2003 1:30 pm

That's true, too. All in all the system (as you agree, wxman57) should become a tropical depression in the next 24 hours.
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#6 Postby JCT777 » Thu Jul 31, 2003 1:35 pm

ColdFront77 wrote:That's true, too. All in all the system (as you agree, wxman57) should become a tropical depression in the next 24 hours.


I agree completely. I will be shocked if it not a TD by tomorrow morning.
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#7 Postby wx247 » Thu Jul 31, 2003 4:38 pm

Yes... the abscence of convection around until late has been one big reason why they probably hastened to name this TD#8. It shouldn't be too long now.
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#8 Postby Stormsfury » Thu Jul 31, 2003 6:53 pm

As already posted, when 90L becomes a tropical depression ... later data and the preliminary reports written on post-analysis may later indicate that 90L was indeed a depression already ... but it's difficult to make an "official" upgrade when the low pressure area is devoid of deep convection ...
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#9 Postby mf_dolphin » Thu Jul 31, 2003 7:14 pm

With the elongated circulation, QuickSCAT showing fairly light winds and no threat to land along with the lack of convection mentioned above, there hasn't been a real need to declare it a TD yet. I have to agree with their call on this one. :-)
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