18z model tracks update one model tracks more west

[cycloneye]

http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/90LTRP.html

Now one tropical model the AE 98 shows a more WNW track than going to the north hummmm.

[wxman57]

THe AE-98 is just a climo model, though. It uses CLIPER as input, and VERY LITTLE (if any) atmospheric dynamics. And climo would say that a system at that lat/lon will go west. But the flow pattern ahead of the system says otherwise.

The key here is how strong it gets before reaching the weakness in the ridge. If it develops before then, then a north turn is more likely. Should it remain weak, then a westerly track is probably more likely.

[Anonymous]

All of the models will have to shift west slightly...at least.

[Steve H.]

99L could get interesting tomorrow as high pressure may build over the region and allow it to develop (as posted previously by TWW). Currently the shear/environment is not allowing it to grow. 90L is impressive but the convection may be outrunning it. NOGAPS, and the AVN show this to some degree, and the NOGAPS actually shows the low splitting into two lows in the central Atlantic, with a third showing up near the eastern Caribbean. The AVN must be delaying development, as it has it, then doesn't show much intensification, then turns it north, but then starts nudging it to the west again at the very end. This has me a bit concerned, as this could signal the re-building of the ridge to the NNW of it. Still a week or more away to get concerned with this east Atlantic feature. But they bear watching. Or is it bare Cheers!!

[Scott_inVA]

99L could get interesting tomorrow as high pressure may build over the region and allow it to develop (as posted previously by TWW). Currently the shear/environment is not allowing it to grow. 90L is impressive but the convection may be outrunning it. NOGAPS, and the AVN show this to some degree, and the NOGAPS actually shows the low splitting into two lows in the central Atlantic, with a third showing up near the eastern Caribbean. The AVN must be delaying development, as it has it, then doesn't show much intensification, then turns it north, but then starts nudging it to the west again at the very end. This has me a bit concerned, as this could signal the re-building of the ridge to the NNW of it. Still a week or more away to get concerned with this east Atlantic feature. But they bear watching. Or is it bare Cheers!!

18Z AVN likewise splits the system

[JetMaxx]

It could turn north.....but I'm always wary of model forecasts this far out; especially when the system is far south and weak.

I well remember all the tv forecasters in Atlanta in 1998 pronounce "Georges" would recurve and miss the Caribbean because the earliest models forecast it too -- only to see it tear across the Caribbean and eventually into the GOM.

I'm not forecasting this system to slam the Caribbean...but IMO it's still too early in the game to sound the "all clear".

PW

[Rainband]

I agree watch it and wait and see

[Scott_inVA]

It could turn north.....but I'm always wary of model forecasts this far out; especially when the system is far south and weak.

I well remember all the tv forecasters in Atlanta in 1998 pronounce "Georges" would recurve and miss the Caribbean because the earliest models forecast it too -- only to see it tear across the Caribbean and eventually into the GOM.

I'm not forecasting this system to slam the Caribbean...but IMO it's still too early in the game to sound the "all clear".

PW

I agree. But...this thing is ~ 3 days away from 50°! It is rare I do *anything* with CVs east of 50°, other than glance at WVL and IR. Do I think this will develop SLOWLY? Probably. Does my wife think I'm smokin' a crack pipe b/c we're doing "wave maps" 1 million miles from Miami? Yes.

Scott

[GulfBreezer]

LOL Scott!! One too many hits off the pipe huh? Well, we all do strange things when we get bored during cane season...........we do appreciate it though!!!!