Latest wind measure 42.55knots at 14.3N 59.9O

[The_Cycloman_PR]

But only over that quadrant. The rest are bellow 30knots.

RECON DECODE
Last RECON Data Message
000 URNT11 KNHC 211815 97779 18154 20143 59900 03800 08037 24218 /0013 40925 RMK AF963 0106A CYCLONE OB 11 ;
FIX TIME
(Z) TIME
(edt) LAT
(deg) LON
(deg) Wind Dir.
(deg) FL WIND
(mph) Aircraft Alt.
(ft)
1815 1415 14.30 59.90 80 42.55 1247
1800 1400 14.30 59.00 90 29.9 1214
1745 1345 13.50 59.00 110 24.15 1247
1800 1400 14.30 59.00 90 29.9 1214
1745 1345 13.50 59.00 110 24.15 1247
1800 1400 14.30 59.00 90 29.9 1214
1745 1345 13.50 59.00 110 24.15 1247
1800 1400 14.30 59.00 90 29.9 1214
1745 1345 13.50 59.00 110 24.15 1247
1730 1330 12.60 59.00 140 18.4 1214
1715 1315 12.50 59.20 90 12.65 1181

Recon positions from the last 12 hours


http://www.net-waves.net/weather/td06.php

Convection dying over the islands and redeveloping over the NHC's 2:00pm center position, not very impresive at this moment by the way...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html


Short coments:

Althought NHC may downgrade it into a TW at 5pm(still we have to wait complete data from the recon and also to see if convection keep developing near the center), Gomers should keep monitoring it for future redevelopment. I think it still may present some trouble for your area during the weekend.

I expect showers and a some gusty wind in Puerto Rico beguining before or during sunrise tomorow mainly in the southeast and southern parth of the island and extending to the west part into wednesday. Maybe some flooding events but nothing more serious than that, the depresion or tropical wave could still pass farther south of us leaving the island without the heaviest convection and just with a few showers from the outer bands.

Cycloman

[The_Cycloman_PR]

Latest 46knots over 14.3N 61.8W


RECON DECODE
Last RECON Data Message
000 URNT11 KNHC 211845 97779 18454 20143 61800 03600 08040 25218 /0013 40920 RMK AF963 0106A CYCLONE OB 13 ;
FIX TIME
(Z) TIME
(edt) LAT
(deg) LON
(deg) Wind Dir.
(deg) FL WIND
(mph) Aircraft Alt.
(ft)
1845 1445 14.30 61.80 80 46 1181
1830 1430 14.30 60.90 80 35.65 1214

[Portastorm]

Am curious about something .... could one suggest that less organized tropical systems, such as what TD #6 has become and waves in general, are less susceptable to the effects of larger scale weather systems such as high pressure ridges, troughs, or upper level lows (TUTT) than more organized tropical systems? Is this a safe assumption or a rule of thumb not based in much meteorological fact?

I guess I'm wondering because if TD#6 stays as a wave it might progress on a more southerly track than what the models suggest.

Thoughts?

[The_Cycloman_PR]

You're righ if it stay as a TD or if it is downgraded into a wave it will probably stay south but all atmospheric systems are affected with eachother in a particular way. A trough can prevent a tropical wave to become a TD or a TD to grow into storm status and also a trough over the northwest of a tropical wave can pull the convection of the system to the northwest. The movement of a tropical storm will be ruled by ridge to the north of it or a trough to the northwest although has been cases when strong hurricanes (Cat3,4,5) create their own environment and make their own routes.

In the case of this TD, the Bermuda high is strong and has kept the TD over a westward track, and dry air in combination with Saharan dust has prevented TD from developing into a TS, also being a weak low it's hard to determine where it is at the moment. There's also could be more than one swirls or the midlevel circulation could also be apart the low level circulation showing a disorganized system. Being that the case could be hard for this TD to be pulled north by a northwestern trough, just like the one we have to the north of Hispaniola. Must likely the depresion could be destroyed by the southwesterly shear that a trough to the northwest will create, inhibiting further development rather than picking the low to the nortwest. It's also depend of the strengh of both systems if the trough is strong then we may see stronger shear ahead of the system. Big hurricanes has been destroyed by souwesterly shear from troughs to the northwest of them as they also change trajectories from westward into northwestward heading into the trough itself. In the case of Hurricane Hugo in 1989, a trough to the northwest of hugo saved us in PR from a direct hit and a worse disaster as southwesterly shear pushed the hurricane into a northwest track and weakened the southwest part of the cyclone. Hugo went across the northeastern part of PR hiting us with it's weaker area, if this southwesterly shear and the trough was'nt there it may then had passed farther south across the entire island and the disaster could had been worse. As for the TD, we will have to wait to see what happen when it reach the western Caribbean, and if it is downgraded or not, anyway I think it will bear watching from the Gulf and Florida people to be prepared in case it redevelops over the western Caribbean.


This is based on my not-expert meteorological knowledge...If some of our mets here could give us some light could be very apreciated...

Cycloman.

[cycloneye]

You covered all the factors congrats for a great anaylisis.

[The_Cycloman_PR]

Ohh! Thank's Cycloneye

[Portastorm]

Yeah, thanks Cycloman! Explains a lot to me.

One thing I've noticed is that it's hard NOT getting an education on this board.

Portastorm

[The_Cycloman_PR]

Thank's Portastorm!