Tropical Depression #6 is making a comeback ... convection is firing up around the suspected LLC ... and in fact, reform closer to the area of convection ... the suspected LLC is in fact likely so small that subtle changes had huge implications on its status, one way or another ... unlike the past systems, there's a high degree of uncertainty regarding the eventual track of #6 due to strength, and movement ... some models dissipating #6 in 36 hours and keeping it south (GFS, GFDL) ... and others strengthening it and keeping it as an entity and moving further northward (UKMET, NOGAPS). A lot is going to depend on if and when #6 gets it act together ... the stronger it becomes in the short-term could likely pull the overall track further northward, and obviously, the weaker it remains, #6 will likely resume a westerly course and be steered by the low-level wind field ...
The UKMET has a known bias of overamplifying patterns and so far, I'm having a little bit of a difficult time with the solution that 3 strong low pressure systems develop along the Appalachain chain in the next few days ... also the UKMET is fairly aggressive in plowing #6 NNW along the SE coast right through a retrograding portion (extension) of the Bermuda High...(however, #6 is only reflected as a 1014mb low)
Secondly, anything that moves directly over the DR/Haiti region ...especially as small as the circulation #6 is right now would likely be shredded by the 10,000 ft+ tall mountain tops ...
Danny is forecast to round the base of the large subtropical ridge as only a remnant low ... regeneration is not expected with Danny despite conditions in about 72 hours becoming favorable and with SST in the progged plots back around 80ºF
