CPC: El Niño conditions have developed

[Windsurfer_NYC]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... index.html

Synopsis: El Niño conditions have developed and are likely to continue into early 2007.

[Pebbles]

Well this means hopefully my heating bill will be lower this winter *crosses fingers*

Always try to look for the positives!

[hurricanetrack]

I think it is amazing that the big forecast groups like CSU, TSR and NOAA had no clue this was coming during the Spring when they were all calling for another harsh hurricane season. This is such a big puzzle piece and one that was missed in a huge way. I understand that Phil K. will be on the Mike Watkins show tomorrow night- I would be interested to hear how his team did not see this coming.

Of course, the major forecast groups also missed last year's forecast pretty bad too- last Spring (2005) no one was calling for 15 hurricanes- 28 named storms and 4 cat-5s. It goes both ways- they missed it on the low side last year and on the high side this year. I suppose that science has a long way to go. Hats off to them for trying- I would not even attempt to make a seasonal forecast- I wish them much luck in the future- as this season showed that apparently, it sometimes cannot be done with much accuracy.

[gatorcane]

If it is a strong el ninon, the Caribbean and GOM could be shut down for the most part, the remainder of ths season - there is my positive

[kenl01]

We are going to freeze our buns off this winter. In 2002 a weak El-Nino developed. and everyone remembers that very cold snowy winter in the Eastern U.S. in 02/03.
The pattern will be different this winter compared to 04/05 and 05/06. I see much colder conditions with heavier snowfall.

[Blown Away]

Is it a possibility that global warming is occuring and this should increase the El Nino event frequency thus decreasing the tropical activity in the Atlantic in the future.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

The Australian BOM is calling for a weak El Nino event in their recent Weekly Tropical Climate Note:

The recently observed conditions described above are consistent with the developing stage of a weak El Nino event, though have occurred somewhat later in the year than is typical. Interestingly, most ENSO forecast models are not predicting the development of a strong El Nino event, and instead indicate the SST pattern in the Pacific will remain near or even below thresholds typically associated with El Nino events.

[cycloneye]

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2699.htm

More information from NOAA about the Weak to Moderate El Nino.

[P.K.]

The Australian BOM is calling for a weak El Nino event in their recent Weekly Tropical Climate Note:

They updated their update today, see http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=89714.

"However, to qualify as an El Niño event, tropical Pacific temperatures would need to persist at their present weekly levels for around another four months, accompanied by a continued weakening of the Trade Winds and above average central Pacific cloudiness. Most computer models indicate continued warming in the Pacific, which implies a probable strengthening of the developing El Niño pattern."

[Jim Hughes]

I think it is amazing that the big forecast groups like CSU, TSR and NOAA had no clue this was coming during the Spring when they were all calling for another harsh hurricane season. This is such a big puzzle piece and one that was missed in a huge way. I understand that Phil K. will be on the Mike Watkins show tomorrow night- I would be interested to hear how his team did not see this coming.

Of course, the major forecast groups also missed last year's forecast pretty bad too- last Spring (2005) no one was calling for 15 hurricanes- 28 named storms and 4 cat-5s. It goes both ways- they missed it on the low side last year and on the high side this year. I suppose that science has a long way to go. Hats off to them for trying- I would not even attempt to make a seasonal forecast- I wish them much luck in the future- as this season showed that apparently, it sometimes cannot be done with much accuracy.

I would hope that Mike would ask Phil Klotzbach about some of my theories in regards to space weather and the El Nino or it's possibe effect upon the tropics. Phil knows about some of my theories and I have talked to him about them over the telephone before. (Most recently about the PET Cycle)

So maybe Mike will read this and ask him. A response of no comment or I am not to sure would be good from my perspective. I say this because I am not to sure how closely he actually follows space weather. He is a rather busy individual. It would be much different if he said it definitely had no effect.

[Jim Hughes]

Is it a possibility that global warming is occuring and this should increase the El Nino event frequency thus decreasing the tropical activity in the Atlantic in the future.

Please it has nothing to do with this.

[cycloneye]

Now the big question is if el nino will continue thru the first half of 2007 and maybe beyond causing the Atlantic 2007 season to be below normal in activity.

[DESTRUCTION5]

i know in FL a El nino means a super wet Winter..

[hurricanetrack]

So that "quake" in the Gulf the other day was really the official arrival of El Nino- we were just told it was a "quake".

[Jim Hughes]

We are going to freeze our buns off this winter. In 2002 a weak El-Nino developed. and everyone remembers that very cold snowy winter in the Eastern U.S. in 02/03.
The pattern will be different this winter compared to 04/05 and 05/06. I see much colder conditions with heavier snowfall.

I sent out a preliminary forecast/heads up on _June 2nd _of this year to many different people in the news, local MET's, and some even at TWC etc...about this developing EL Nino and the possible chance of us having the coldest winter in 30 years around the northeast/mid-Atlantic.

I am sure most thought that this El Nino/winter outlook was absurd. How many of them think this now?

There are one or two more variables to consider here but things are still looking good for a colder than normal winter.

I am not to sure about it being the coldest in 30 years though. And why should I have to say this anyway? NOAA and the CPC do not do this. All I have ever asked for is a level playing field. Many may have noticed that this is hard to get. Politics play a major role. Even in weather forums.

[cycloneye]

Jim,any forecast for next summer about el nino lingering thru that time?

[Jim Hughes]

Jim,any forecast for next summer about el nino lingering thru that time?

That would be very hard call to make at this time frame. At least for me. I think this November is an important key here. Space weather wise. I have forecasted a considerable spike in space weather activity for this time frame. It remains to be seen if I am going to be correct .

The type of space weather activity will tell me certain things about the morphology of the IMF and how this relates to what lies ahead. We are approaching solar minimum and all of this has a meaning in the overall scheme of things from my perspective.

I do have an extended long term outlook. I believe we will be seeing more La Nina's, or at least stronger events, compared to the frequency of El Nino's, during the next 10-12 years as the next solar cycle picks up in strength. I also think we will be seeing a turning trend toward a negative PDO.

Most thought this was occurring in 1998. I think it happens this time around.

[LaBreeze]

I figured that was the reason for the GOM shutting down - let's hope the remaining storms are just "fish" in the Atlantic.

[SouthFloridawx]

I see no indications that El Nino has shut down the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico.

Please do me a favor and look at the windshear for the past 5 days. The only real shear in the Caribbean is from an upper level trough and Florence in the Eastern Caribbean. No reason to count out the Caribbean from Development.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... tjava.html

[SouthFloridawx]

Except for a spike in September below normal shear for the gulf on average.


As of late... below normal shear in the Caribbean.