Areas in BOC and Eastern Caribbean

[boca]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

Just something to watch. The area in the Bay of Campache is probably part of the frontal trough, the area in the Leewards looks like a wave. Lets see if this wave can make it to the Western Caribbean.

[Emmett_Brown]

The BOC disturbance definitely catches my eye... upper level winds not bad for development the next 48 hours

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/3hh_48.gif

Pressures over the gulf will be generally low... 48 hour GFS doesnt show a low, but does show overall lower pressure in the western gulf.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/slp_48.gif

[Thunder44]

I saw this earlier. It doesn't look like anything more than a cluster of storms, in the BOC, at this time.

[Emmett_Brown]

If anything does develop down in the BOC over the next several days, my guess would be a westward track into Mexico. I think this shows that the GOM is getting ready for the October increase in activity.

[boca]

Theirs alot of latent heat down there in the GOM and Caribbean this season lets see if something wants to get going in these areas. Only Alberto affected the GOM.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at2006.asp

[Hyperstorm]

I'll be watching this wave as it enters the Caribbean. It has the look of one that will develop if conditions aloft allow it due to its rapidly consolidating nature as of the last 12 hours. The GFS and NOGAPS are forecasting easterly flow in the upper levels across the Caribbean starting on Friday. While I don't trust these upper level forecasts 100% of the time, when the GFS and NOGAPS show something similar, it becomes more interesting.

If that occurs this one will have to be monitored VERY closely...

[cycloneye]

boca,I edited the title to change the word Leewards to Windwards as the wave mainly is south of 15n.

[O Town]

One of the first things that caught my eye this morning was the wave approaching the Caribbean around the Lesser Antilles. Curious if this will have a favorable enough enviroment to develope.

[caneman]

Yeah this looks like one to watch. From the 8:00 Discussion.

A WELL-DEFINED HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W SOUTH
OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. UNLIKE THE TWO WAVES TO ITS
EAST...THIS ONE IS VERY EASY TO FIND WITH A CLASSIC INVERTED
V-SHAPE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGES. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WITHIN 300 NM OF THE
WAVE AXIS. SOME OF THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS OVER THE WINDWARD

[gatorcane]

homebrew is starting to get going

Boca I agree there is *alot* of latent heat in the GOM and Caribbean that needs to be transported poleward. I expect something to pop in these areas soon.

[SouthFloridawx]

Yeah this looks like one to watch. From the 8:00 Discussion.

A WELL-DEFINED HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W SOUTH
OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. UNLIKE THE TWO WAVES TO ITS
EAST...THIS ONE IS VERY EASY TO FIND WITH A CLASSIC INVERTED
V-SHAPE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGES. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WITHIN 300 NM OF THE
WAVE AXIS. SOME OF THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS OVER THE WINDWARD

I have been waiting for this to happen with low shear in the Western Caribbean for the past week or so.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=89675

[stormchazer]

Season Cancelled! Season Cancelled! Wait, Florence, Gordon, TD8, Lows in GoM and Winwards!


Ummmm....hmmmm.

Sorry, back to topic.

[boca]

What is everyone's take on the wave over the Windward Islands making it into the Gulf with the present synoptic pattern were in.

[Sanibel]

Appears under formation.

Homebrew in spot clear of Atlantic negativity.

Watch out for untapped GOM systems.

Into Mexico like last year?

[Portastorm]

Jumping on BOC. Appears under formation.

Homebrew in spot clear of Atlantic negativity.

Watch out for untapped GOM systems.

Into Mexico like last year?

I dunno ... ... NHC morning discussion says it's only an upper low being enhanced by a difluent flow.

[Sanibel]

Could be right. Thought I saw a twist.

[Portastorm]

Could be right. Thought I saw a twist.

You did! So did I ... still do, in fact ... so I checked the morning discussion from NHC to see if something was brewing in the BOC. They didn't seem too concerned about it.

[chrisnnavarre]

Any of the models hitting on the area in the Windwards yet?

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED SEP 13 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
GORDON...LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...AND ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT...LOCATED ABOUT 335 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THERE ARE NO
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT OF HURRICANE FLORENCE IS LOCATED ABOUT
ABOUT 125 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Sanibel]

Weak twist 20N - 93W


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html