Will Western Caribbean be shut down this year

[boca]

I have been wondering why this basin has been so quiet this year. I have my theories but I like to here what people think about the NW and SW Caribbean. My thinking is because of the developing El Nino possibly ocurring their too much shear down there,but not as of late. Alot of dry air in the basin. The warmer EPAC stealing the formation of even a disturbance to form down there. Tropical waves seem to fall apart as soon as they pass Puerto Rico.

[boca]

No one seems to have an answer about the Western Caribbean and I'm shocked because I thought this thread would of took off with my comments.

[Jim Cantore]

It hasn't been quiet, it's been Normal, last year was insanity.

[StormWarning1]

You answered your own questions.
Shear
Dry Air

Even with less of it in the West Carribean there are not any waves able to make it over there.

[Patrick99]

I think we'll squeeze one or two storms out there in October and November, probably affecting S. FL in one way or another. Probably a TD or weak TS that throws copious tropical moisture our way. I doubt there will be any Wilmas...or even Irenes. This hurricane season just has no spark.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

I have been wondering why this basin has been so quiet this year. I have my theories but I like to here what people think about the NW and SW Caribbean. My thinking is because of the developing El Nino possibly ocurring their too much shear down there,but not as of late. Alot of dry air in the basin. The warmer EPAC stealing the formation of even a disturbance to form down there. Tropical waves seem to fall apart as soon as they pass Puerto Rico.

The Western Caribbean isn't a favored area for developement until October.

[Rainband]

Well a few months back I posted about a Local Met, Paul delegato talking about the how active the Pacific was compared to the atlantic. That History shows that if the pacific is active the atlantic is far less active... Seems to be making sense now.

[ConvergenceZone]

The whole frigging season is about over anyway, and no I don't want to hear the "Wait Until October" nonsense.....

It is what it is..........Next year will bring us more action.

[boca]

Funny you say that wait until late July, August now September yes we have Florence and thats it nothing coming off of Africa. It already looks unfavorable out there now.

[PTrackerLA]

Yeah you can't really say "wait til ____" now. That obviously hasn't panned out this year as the season has never really gotten going. I'm beginning to doubt if it ever will, we might only have 2 or 3 more storms at this rate. Not complaining here, it's actually RELAXING to have a slow year.

[boca]

Agreed PTracker I get my shutters Sept 23rd.

[StormWarning1]

Its really beginning to look like El Nino is kicking in. Look at the temp anamolies showing up in the Eastern and Central pacific.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/NCO ... nomaly.gif

If this is the case, which I think it is, then the remainder of the season should be fairly quiet. Kinda like 2004 after mid September when a weak El Nino formed.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/NCO ... nomaly.gif

What does form will be North of 25 lat.

Perhaps Florence is this seasons last shot at having a 'Karl" of 2004.

[southerngale]

The whole frigging season is about over anyway, and no I don't want to hear the "Wait Until October" nonsense.....

It is what it is..........Next year will bring us more action.

You seem upset.

[SouthFloridawx]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

What's up with the High Windshear theory in the Western Caribbean?

[ConvergenceZone]

The whole frigging season is about over anyway, and no I don't want to hear the "Wait Until October" nonsense.....

It is what it is..........Next year will bring us more action.

You seem upset.

not upset, but just tired of getting bashed earlier in the season everytime I said "looks like a short season" or "looks like not much of a season at all".....It does feel good though not to hear rebuttels from the naysayers this time around ....I think they are finally realizing it too. It was the minority of the folks that predicted not much happening this season...

[Normandy]

^Your getting bashed for a reason, because you keep prematurely calling the season "over" when its really not. If this was Oct 31, then I can understand, but saying this in June, then July, then August, then Sept gets annoying.

[Thunder44]

This season has been running about normal using a historical record average. And it still has time to pick to wind up being a little above normal. The problem is that after the last few seasons and eariler forecasts for this season, some people here had high expections going into this season. So this season pretty much sucks for them because things aren't developing they were hoping for and going where they want and are losing patience.

Florence isn't a Cat 3 hurricane yet, and it doesn't appear to be any threat other than Bermuda, an island they don't really care about.

I say take it one storm at a time and judgements about the season should wait until really is just about over in November.

[boca]

I think that the Western Caribbean which is a hot spot normally in Oct will not produce this year because of the developing El Nino which will cause high shear values in that area of the world.

[HollynLA]

Not sure why anyone is getting their panties in a wad over this season being slower (even though it's really average). I for one welcome it! I'd rather spend my days doing something productive rather than repairing my home and cleaning up my yard. Not to mention, the gas prices are slowly dropping, a storm would cause them to skyrocket. I don't have a money tree, so let's keep the storms away.

[beachbum_al]

Honestly I would rather see no more storms this year. I like the fact that gas prices are going down and keep going down. I like the fact that we might actually have a Fall Break this year in October. I like the fact that my neighbors to the West of me are getting a chance to get their lives slightly back in order without having to worry about a storm coming toward them. But I am not letting my guard down yet either because it is only Sept. We still have the rest of this month and October to make it through.