Is a 1938 NYC Hurricane repeat possible with Florence?

[zlaxier]

Looking at the models, all it would take is a few hundred mile shift to the left (which has happened many times in these long range models) and the northeast has major problems.

I think if there is any risk for landfall in the U.S., it's in the northeast.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The trough/front is already moving off the coast(92L) which will recurve this long before it has the slightest chance of making landfall on the east coast.

[WxGuy1]

The GFS is showing 30-60kt 200mb southwesterly or westerly flow between Bermuda and the east coast through the next week. Any storm that tries to march towards the Atlantic coast will get severely sheared.

For example, look at the GFS 200mb wind/height field forecast valid from next Wednesday morning -- http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/GFS/gfs ... pd_168.gif

No way is Florence hitting the coast if that verifies.

[hurricanetrack]

This will look a lot like September 10/11, 2001 when Erin was well off the East Coast- providing very clear skies for that fateful day in NYC and DC and PA.

Just think what a difference Erin would have made had IT been 300 miles to the west. Just something to ponder.

[Brent]

This will look a lot like September 10/11, 2001 when Erin was well off the East Coast- providing very clear skies for that fateful day in NYC and DC and PA.

Just think what a difference Erin would have made had IT been 300 miles to the west. Just something to ponder.

WOW.

I can't believe it's been 5 years since that day either.

[HurricaneJoe22]

wow...Erin might have prevented 9/11!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Part of me if a cat1 would of hit New york 9/11/01. In then they would of shut the airport down. Which would of saved alot of lifes. Thats one time it would be good for at least a weak hurricane to hit.

[wxwatcher91]

NEXT CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE APPROACH OF FLORENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS THE LARGE HIGH ANCHORS OVER THE MARITIMES...IT NOSES A RIDGE DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...KEEPING THE REGION SANDWICHED BETWEEN
FLORENCE WELL OFFSHORE AND ANOTHER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE
RESULTANT NORTHEAST FETCH WILL KEEP THINGS COOLER AND CLOUDIER WITH
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW BRINGING IN MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS. KEPT IN
MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS OF
MONDAY AND TUESDAY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. ONCE FLORENCE MOVES OUT
TO SEA...THE LAKES LOW WILL BREAK DOWN WITH ITS COLD FRONT WORKING
EASTWARD DURING WEDNESDAY...AT LEAST FOR NOW. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FROM THE TROPICAL
PREDICTION CENTER.

If there was ANY chance of a New England hit at ALL, the NWS would have mentioned it in this paragraph, however, as you can see, they seem fairly confident in the outcome of Florence.
With that said, I'll say an 80% chance of a fish, 0.01% chance of hitting the East Coast, and the other 19.99% is for a strike on Bermuda.

As I see it, the only way Florence could hit New England, or the East Coast for that matter, is if it misses the trough that just came off the coast, and wedges between the next trough and the ridge building down from the Maritimes that the NWS mentions.