Invest 92L East of SC/NC Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[cycloneye]

[gatorcane]

so its an invest now? wow

[jasons2k]

I'm surpised since the NHC explicity said in the TWO that NON-tropical development was possible.

IMO the Caribbean system should be 92L, not this.

[MBismyPlayground]

Wow! Can someone tell me how this might infuence everything else going on out there right now, or will it have any effects on anything?? I have continued to notice this "blob" and figured if no one mentioned it, it was nothing important.

[terstorm1012]

I stand corrected when I said earlier I didn't think this was any big deal. Perhaps it is something to watch!

[Grease Monkey]

Lots of invests. All talk no action.

[cycloneye]

Lots of invests. All talk no action.

This year it mainly has been that way.

[wxman57]

Convection is diminishing. In 48 hours it'll be along the coast of Newfoundland as a frontal low. Not much to watch.

[Thunder44]

I think TPC is just watching this system in case it shows some tropical characteristics. It should remain mostly offshore, whether or not it develops.

[gatorcane]

how many times have we had something develop in this area this year - its th year of EC troughs. They just haven't let up. The US mainland will be protected the rest of the season if this keeps up.

of course it could get interesting if something manages to get goin in the SW or NW Caribbean....we can't rule this out

okay back to the topic.

[flhurricaneguy]

that would be great!

[Thunder44]

how many times have we had something develop in this area this year - its th year of EC troughs. They just haven't let up. The US mainland will be protected the rest of the season if this keeps up.

Some people have pointed out to the persistance of east coast trough throughout the summer as weather pattern to allow more hurricanes to come up the east coast up to hit Long Island or New England. But so far it seems to be steering systems away from the east coast.

[skysummit]

[Thunder44]

052
WHXX01 KWBC 061815
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922006) ON 20060906 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060906 1800 060907 0600 060907 1800 060908 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 31.2N 78.4W 34.0N 75.0W 37.2N 70.9W 40.2N 64.9W
BAMM 31.2N 78.4W 33.6N 75.9W 36.2N 73.1W 38.6N 69.2W
A98E 31.2N 78.4W 33.2N 76.0W 35.3N 72.5W 38.4N 68.5W
LBAR 31.2N 78.4W 33.3N 75.4W 36.1N 71.9W 39.7N 67.6W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 43KTS 49KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 43KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060908 1800 060909 1800 060910 1800 060911 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 42.8N 56.8W 41.5N 38.6W 37.0N 31.1W 34.9N 22.5W
BAMM 40.9N 64.5W 44.0N 51.9W 43.6N 38.2W 44.0N 25.5W
A98E 41.1N 62.4W 43.0N 45.0W 40.9N 26.7W 34.2N 17.5W
LBAR 43.3N 60.6W .0N .0W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 52KTS 49KTS 44KTS 33KTS
DSHP 52KTS 49KTS 44KTS 33KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 31.2N LONCUR = 78.4W DIRCUR = 50DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 30.0N LONM12 = 81.0W DIRM12 = 66DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 28.8N LONM24 = 83.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Thunder44]

212
NOUS42 KNHC 061815 AMD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0215 PM EDT WED 06 SEP 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z SEP 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-099 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLY BEGIN 12 HOURLY FIXES
NEAR 23.5N 60.5W AT 08/1800Z.
3. REMARKS (ADDED) : A RESOURCES PERMITTING INVEST
OF A SUSPECT AREA OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
WAS ADDED FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ESTIMATED TAKEOFF
TIME 06/1900Z. COORDINATES 34.1N 76.7W.

Recon is scheduled to go into this system at 3pm today, resources permitting.

[WmE]

That's really surprising. is there the possibility that they can find a TD? I doubt it!

[gatorcane]

makes no sense - obviously things are on the quiet side in the Atlantic for them to even consider looking at this thing more.

[MBismyPlayground]

OKay, I am stupid when it comes to weather and understanding so much of this. The maps, the troughs, you name it , I am clueless, so please bare with me.
If the models are correct that we posted above, and this invest is moving, curving to the west, and we have Flo curving up towards this invest, what would be the impact?? I guess the timing is everything but, IF the timing is right on, then what would happen???

[stormie]

Is it possible this could impact Florence, and that's why they're examining it more closely than they might otherwise?

[CrazyC83]

I think it will be of little consequence to Florence. Too weak and too far ahead.