Forgive me but I'm going on a tear here.........

[Downdraft]

I'm so sick of people saying just because this storm isn't a major clobbering some city it's a non-event. People who think that the wind factor is the only thing to consider with a tropical system are only showing their ignorance and total lack of understanding. Right now this storm is licking the heat out very warm water and that heat is gonna reverse itself and come back to earth as rain. Fundamental weather basics 101...evaporation causes cooling of water transferring heat to storm...condensation creates heat releasing energy as rain. In many areas this could be a devastating flood event, short lived but a flood event none the less. Any tropical system even a depression bears respect. To listen to some in here anything less than a CAT 3 storm is a waste of time it only shows they aren't here for the weather they are only here for the hype. Rant over.

[DelrayMorris]

I'm so sick of people saying just because this storm isn't a major clobbering some city it's a non-event. People who think that the wind factor is the only thing to consider with a tropical system are only showing their ignorance and total lack of understanding. Right now this storm is licking the heat out very warm water and that heat is gonna reverse itself and come back to earth as rain. Fundamental weather basics 101...evaporation causes cooling of water transferring heat to storm...condensation creates heat releasing energy as rain. In many areas this could be a devastating flood event, short lived but a flood event none the less. Any tropical system even a depression bears respect. To listen to some in here anything less than a CAT 3 storm is a waste of time it only shows they aren't here for the weather they are only here for the hype. Rant over.

Thanks, Downdraft! Anyone who remembers Irene in 1999 (yes, she was a Hurricane, but the flooding was what I'm talking about) will know that it doesn't have to be a Katrina to flood badly. And flooding can weaken trees roots and cause them to fall over. Are we going to have people stranded in the Orange Bowl? No, but there's going to be issues in some cases, nonetheless.

People keep saying they have afternoon thuderstorms with the same wind speed. That may be true, but afternoon thunderstorms don't hang around for 18 hours (or however long! I'll go with 12, even) and keep pounding you with 50 mph hours winds and 15 inches of rain.

[Cookiely]

Anyone who has experienced flooding will not say its a non event because the winds are not cat 5. Anyone who has filled sandbags til their blue in the face and been hit on the back of the head with someone else's shovel knows what I'm talking about. How about praying on your knees watching the flooding creeping slowly toward your home, and the rain won't stop.

[westmoon]

DelrayMorris,

Well said!

Seams the news is on the same bandwagon here in Tampa Bay, All I have heard about is one year ago today was Katrina. A slight change in direction or it does become a cat 1 and there are going to be a lot of people are unprepared.

[fox13weather]

I'm so sick of people saying just because this storm isn't a major clobbering some city it's a non-event. People who think that the wind factor is the only thing to consider with a tropical system are only showing their ignorance and total lack of understanding. Right now this storm is licking the heat out very warm water and that heat is gonna reverse itself and come back to earth as rain. Fundamental weather basics 101...evaporation causes cooling of water transferring heat to storm...condensation creates heat releasing energy as rain. In many areas this could be a devastating flood event, short lived but a flood event none the less. Any tropical system even a depression bears respect. To listen to some in here anything less than a CAT 3 storm is a waste of time it only shows they aren't here for the weather they are only here for the hype. Rant over.

you make excellent points, except in this case the storm is going to move at a decent clip up the peninsula. Every tropical system has its own personality and yes, even depressions can cause deadly flooding. In this case the storm should move at a fast enough speed that flooding should not be an issue. IN SOME CASES, tropical systems can do more good than bad such as replenishing the aquifer. The east coast from Melbourne north could use a good soaking. I am not expecting a "devestating" flood event because I do not see any "training" occuring. (street and urban flooding could be an issue) This could be a problem storm across the mid-atlantic states if it stalls there.

[sweetpea]

Fox news out of Orlando said this morning that there wasn't anything to worry about. That it would just be like an afternoon thunderstorm. My thought is (and some people have mentioned it on this board) an afternoon thunderstorm can really whip some trees around and throw patio chairs, but they only last 15 or 20 minutes. Imagine that same storm going for 10 to 12 hours? I thank god it isn't a major hurricane, but I don't like they way they keep downplaying it as an "afternoon storm". I hope everyone uses common sense and stays safe.

[HurricaneBill]

Storms noteworthy for floods and rain:

Hurricane Hazel 1954 (flooded Toronto, Canada)

Hurricane Diane 1955 (flooded New England)

Hurricane Flora 1963 (flooded Cuba and Hispaniola)

Hurricane Camille 1969 (flooded mid-Atlantic)

Hurricane Agnes 1972 (flooded mid-Atlantic, especially PA)

Hurricane Fifi 1974 (destructive floods in Honduras)

Hurricane Eloise 1975 (floods in mid-Atlantic)

Hurricane David 1979 (destructive floods, especially in Dominican Republic)

Hurricane Gilbert 1988 (floods in western Gulf coast of Mexico)

Hurricane Diana 1990 (floods on western Gulf coast of Mexico)

Hurricane Klaus 1990 (floods on Martinique)

Hurricane Opal 1995 (floods in Yucatan peninsula)

Hurricane Cesar 1996 (floods in Central America and Venezuela)

Hurricane Hortense 1996 (floods in PR)

Hurricane Georges 1998 (floods in Hispaniola)

Hurricane Mitch 1998 (floods in Central America, especially Honduras and Nicaragua)

Hurricane Floyd 1999 (floods in mid-Atlantic and northeast, espeically NC)

Tropical Storm Allison 2001 (floods in the Gulf states, especially TX)

Hurricane Jeanne 2004 (floods in Haiti)

Hurricane Stan 2005 (floods in Central America)

[Loring]

agreed

[LizzardInFlorida]

I'm so sick of people saying just because this storm isn't a major clobbering some city it's a non-event. People who think that the wind factor is the only thing to consider with a tropical system are only showing their ignorance and total lack of understanding. Right now this storm is licking the heat out very warm water and that heat is gonna reverse itself and come back to earth as rain. Fundamental weather basics 101...evaporation causes cooling of water transferring heat to storm...condensation creates heat releasing energy as rain. In many areas this could be a devastating flood event, short lived but a flood event none the less. Any tropical system even a depression bears respect. To listen to some in here anything less than a CAT 3 storm is a waste of time it only shows they aren't here for the weather they are only here for the hype. Rant over.

I understand your rant completely - it's not lost on many who have been through floods. My TS Allison experience made me very unnerved by the flooding prospects of any kind of storms.

My car literally floated 20 ft. from its original spot in the parking garage and was huddled among 5 different cars (all with horns blaring) when I went to check on it at 3 am. I've never seen such a mess as Houston was that day. Even if I'd had a car, there were no roads to drive on. My apt. complex was an island for 24 hours.

My friend's apartment was completely submerged in the flood up to the ceiling - he lost everything.

I don't take any Tropical system lightly. The flooding factor is very much an issue for all coastal people.

Hopefully this thing will move quickly as it hits land and we won't have deal with such things.

[Downdraft]

you make excellent points, except in this case the storm is going to move at a decent clip up the peninsula. Every tropical system has its own personality and yes, even depressions can cause deadly flooding. In this case the storm should move at a fast enough speed that flooding should not be an issue. IN SOME CASES, tropical systems can do more good than bad such as replenishing the aquifer. The east coast from Melbourne north could use a good soaking. I am not expecting a "devestating" flood event because I do not see any "training" occuring. (street and urban flooding could be an issue) This could be a problem storm across the mid-atlantic states if it stalls there.[/quote]


Thanks for the input. I don't see a major flood event either except for urban street and stream flooding. If it was slower I'd worry about the St. John's watershed more. My fear is that people that come here for info basically ignorant of storms will be lulled into a false sense of security when they hear "it's only a depression or a storm."

[CrazyC83]

Some more to add:

Tropical Storm Claudette (1979) - Texas

Tropical Storm Beryl (1982) - Cape Verde, 130+ deaths

Tropical Storm Isabel (1985) - Hispaniola, 180 deaths

Hurricane Juan (1985) - Louisiana

Tropical Storm Allison (1989) - Texas

Tropical Storm Bret (1993) - Venezuela, 190 deaths

Hurricane Gert (1993) - Central America

Tropical Storm Alberto (1994) - Southeast US

Hurricane Gordon (1994) - Haiti

Tropical Depression Eleven (1999) - yes, a TD killed 400+ in Mexico

[melhow]

Storms noteworthy for floods and rain:

Hurricane Hazel 1954 (flooded Toronto, Canada)

Hurricane Diane 1955 (flooded New England)

Hurricane Flora 1963 (flooded Cuba and Hispaniola)

Hurricane Camille 1969 (flooded mid-Atlantic)

Hurricane Agnes 1972 (flooded mid-Atlantic, especially PA)

Hurricane Fifi 1974 (destructive floods in Honduras)

Hurricane Eloise 1975 (floods in mid-Atlantic)

Hurricane David 1979 (destructive floods, especially in Dominican Republic)

Hurricane Gilbert 1988 (floods in western Gulf coast of Mexico)

Hurricane Diana 1990 (floods on western Gulf coast of Mexico)

Hurricane Klaus 1990 (floods on Martinique)

Hurricane Opal 1995 (floods in Yucatan peninsula)

Hurricane Cesar 1996 (floods in Central America and Venezuela)

Hurricane Hortense 1996 (floods in PR)

Hurricane Georges 1998 (floods in Hispaniola)

Hurricane Mitch 1998 (floods in Central America, especially Honduras and Nicaragua)

Hurricane Floyd 1999 (floods in mid-Atlantic and northeast, espeically NC)

Tropical Storm Allison 2001 (floods in the Gulf states, especially TX)

Hurricane Jeanne 2004 (floods in Haiti)

Hurricane Stan 2005 (floods in Central America)

Surprised to see Elena of 85 (happy 21 year anniversary to her, btw) omitted.

24 hours of sitting and spinning off the WC of Indian Rocks Beach really messed the area up.

From a St. Pete Times archive:

"For three days over the 1985 Labor Day weekend, Hurricane Elena stalled off the coast of West Central Florida and held it a virtual hostage. More than 300,000 residents fled their homes, the largest peace-time evacuation in U.S. history

Although Elena never came closer than 80 miles to the Tampa Bay area, its 40 to 50 mph sustained winds caused tides six feet above normal on the beaches and seven feet above normal in the bay. The storm killed four people, destroyed more than 250 homes and damaged thousands of others before finally moving north and coming ashore in Mississippi. Elena washed away the landmark Indian Rocks Pier, including snack bar, tackle shop and bathhouse, all of which went in a single piece.

For weeks afterward," one resident recalls, "They were finding pieces of the pier from the beach to Tarpon Springs. The hurricane even altered the area's coastal geography -- it filled in the Dunedin Pass with sand, meaning Clearwater Beach boaters no longer could use the channel to get to the Gulf of Mexico.

Total damages to man-made property in Florida were estimated at $213-million."

And an interesting note on Elena from the nhc archive that reminds us that things don't always work out how they are forecast:


"The forward speed of the hurricane was close to 30 mph to the west-northwest direction on August 29, 1985. Landfall appeared imminent near Gulfport, MS the next day. However, during the next twenty-four hours Elena slowed in translation and began turning east toward the Florida Peninsula. The eye of Hurricane Elena remained essentially stationary off the Florida coast near the town of Cedar Key on August 31, 1985. The storm system continued to intensify throughout the day with reconnaissance wind speed estimates increasing from 75 to 125 mph in the eye wall. "

[westmoon]

we were without power for over a week with Elana.

[brunota2003]

I have another...just last year, the remenets of TS Tammy hooked up with a trough here and caused a bunch of flooding...and then again in 2004 Bonnie the same thing happend...here is the write up on the Flooding caused by Tammy, for those of you who think a TS or its remenets are weak and doesnt cause any damage please scroll down to the bottom and look at the pictures...:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/mhx/08Oct2005/08Oct2005.html

[fci]

I respect your rant and that even a TD can be very devastating.
I agree with your sentiments; however; there are MANY storms that turn out to be an overhyped dud.
Happens all the time and that is a GOOD THING.

Ernesto appears to be, simply put; a dud.
A bit of rain, maybe a few inches here and there and some gusty winds synonomous with an afternoon of heavy thuderstorms we get down here quite often.

I get a bit tired of every situation warranting a lecture and being told that people are wrong to poo-poo a system that never seems to materialize.
It is great that people reacted as they did to Ernesto.
Wasted a lot of time and money getting ready but it has to be done "Just in case".
I accept that

I also accept people to be frustrated with all the prep that took place only to get, what appears to be; A STORM CANCEL.

Business' closed early, commerce was affected and all for naught.

So, allow people to voice their frustration with doing a lot for nothing and don't let every joke about a wimpy tropical Storm elicit a lecture about how people CAN'T call it a "non-event"

Because it appears that this one is......................................... a non-event.

[fox13weather]

I respect your rant and that even a TD can be very devastating.
I agree with your sentiments; however; there are MANY storms that turn out to be an overhyped dud.
Happens all the time and that is a GOOD THING.

Ernesto appears to be, simply put; a dud.
A bit of rain, maybe a few inches here and there and some gusty winds synonomous with an afternoon of heavy thuderstorms we get down here quite often.

I get a bit tired of every situation warranting a lecture and being told that people are wrong to poo-poo a system that never seems to materialize.
It is great that people reacted as they did to Ernesto.
Wasted a lot of time and money getting ready but it has to be done "Just in case".
I accept that

I also accept people to be frustrated with all the prep that took place only to get, what appears to be; A STORM CANCEL.

Business' closed early, commerce was affected and all for naught.

So, allow people to voice their frustration with doing a lot for nothing and don't let every joke about a wimpy tropical Storm elicit a lecture about how people CAN'T call it a "non-event"

Because it appears that this one is......................................... a non-event.

If I believe a storm is not going to be a big event then I say that . It is my job. It is what it is, a weak tropical storm making landfall. Iwill watch it for signs of intensification or a track shift but I see no signs of that right now.

[Deenac813]

What about Irene in 1999? I remember my neighbors backyard flooded so bad he was in a boat!

[bombarderoazul]

Who can forget that Hurricane Paul of 1982 killed over one Thousand people when it was born as a depression. It made landfall somewhere in the Guatemala/El Salvador border.

[AJC3]

I'm so sick of people saying just because this storm isn't a major clobbering some city it's a non-event. People who think that the wind factor is the only thing to consider with a tropical system are only showing their ignorance and total lack of understanding. Right now this storm is licking the heat out very warm water and that heat is gonna reverse itself and come back to earth as rain. Fundamental weather basics 101...evaporation causes cooling of water transferring heat to storm...condensation creates heat releasing energy as rain. In many areas this could be a devastating flood event, short lived but a flood event none the less. Any tropical system even a depression bears respect. To listen to some in here anything less than a CAT 3 storm is a waste of time it only shows they aren't here for the weather they are only here for the hype. Rant over.

Excellent points made. To wit...here's a link to the graphical HLS (Hurricane Local Statement) for the NWS Melbourne forecast area.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/ghls/hls_main.html

[terstorm1012]

you forgot to add 93L from July, the main cause of the northeast Pennsylvania, southern Tier of New York flooding.

doesn't even need to be a named system.