One word to remember 2006 season so far

[boca]

So far I would have to say the year of the ULL.

[Andrew92]

Year of the shear!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The year of the poofing storm. This year if this where to hold up would be worst then 1997, At least 1997 we had a major.

[Andrew92]

However, still, it only takes one........even if it is year of the shear.

-Andrew92

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yeah thats true. But with Andrew it was something very rare. It is no longer rare after last year. In this year would need a cat3 at least into new york to even start to beat it. So if you are looking for excitement or something rare to track it will take a few years to get over 2005.

[Brent]

Year of the wimpy storms.

[wxmann_91]

True to all comments here.

Frankly, I'm glad 2006 hurricane season is a dud, I'm thinking my classes are going to get harder the next several days, and the WPAC/CPAC/EPAC storms are already plenty good to track (I mean, just look at Ioke!). That's the selfish reason. Of course, there's another, better reason: folks in Florida and the Gulf Coast can FINALLY get a well-deserved rest.

[Andrew92]

True to all comments here.

Frankly, I'm glad 2006 hurricane season is a dud, I'm thinking my classes are going to get harder the next several days, and the WPAC/CPAC/EPAC storms are already plenty good to track (I mean, just look at Ioke!). That's the selfish reason. Of course, there's another, better reason: folks in Florida and the Gulf Coast can FINALLY get a well-deserved rest.

I firmly agree. It is beyond me why some people still want to experience a hurricane (besides those who chase hurricanes of course) after what has happened over the last two years. My declaration of "year of the shear" for 2006 is both a wishcast and an observation for this year. However, I still can't get over that it still only takes one. It doesn't necessarily have to be Andrew, it could be a Betsy or an Alicia and still be bad.

-Andrew92

[southerngale]

It's only August 28th - I think it's a little early to define the whole season. (although I know the person who started the thread said "so far")

[Cyclenall]

Notice how both Chris and Ernesto were expected to go into the Gulf? It's like the GOM has a shield or something.

[AnnularCane]

Notice how both Chris and Ernesto were expected to go into the Gulf? It's like the GOM has a shield or something.

You jinxed the GOM now, you know that?

[Wx_Warrior]

East Coast has a shield and dares waves off Africa to bring it on!!!!!

[boca]

After Katrina and Rita let the Gulf be jinxed.

[marcane_1973]

There has not been any REAL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS to be seen yet to get these storms to ramp up like years in the past. There have been a lot of posts saying that there is no shear and the waters are very warm. It takes more than high SSTS to form a hurricane. You have to have the whole package which we have not seen yet in the Atlantic so far this season. The ULLS have been a big reason why as well. Ernesto did fairly well considering all the things in place to have to fight off. People need to understand that warm ocean temperatures alone WILL NOT brew up a big storm. We still have September and October to go but I think NOAA and Dr. Grays forecast thinking was there was not supposed to be so much shear and ULLS to tear everything apart which is happening everytime we get a depression to form in the Atlantic

[HurricaneBill]

Well, after last year, the Atlantic's taking a rest.

Although I'm puzzled by the slow WPAC season. Usually it's shooting storms out left and right.

[SIMWMBA]

So far I would have to say the year of the ULL.

'King TUTT'

[crazycajuncane]

I'd like to thank Cuba for their assistance in tearing Chris and Ernesto a new one.

The year of the Cuban!

[Acral]

But feelin' good so far this season!

[wxmann_91]

Well, after last year, the Atlantic's taking a rest.

Although I'm puzzled by the slow WPAC season. Usually it's shooting storms out left and right.

The OLR is way up in the favored WPAC formation area. http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/olr/olr.anom.gif

Which means dry MJO is firmly entrenched in the WPAC, also evidenced here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... thly.shtml

This may be a controversial method for forecasting global TC activity, but the SSTA's at the North Pole are off the charts, so maybe we don't need as many TC's to balance out the heat transfer; thus northern hemisphere TC's may be below normal in 2006. Again, JUST A THEORY.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/NCO ... nomaly.gif

[yzerfan]

The quieter that 2006 goes, the less likely we are to get dropped by our homeowner's insurance company, and I'm all for that.