A good question about the latest forecasting..Mets Welcome

[Weatherfreak000]

I have been seeing alot of continuous model runs and alot of agreement but a scenario in my mind is plaguing me. I figured I should address it outside of the Ernesto topic because I don't want to buried behind other discussions.



Here's the scenario i'm questioning here, i'm looking at WV Loops and seeing the cold front that I assume is supposed to assist taking the system to the North and driving it up the Florida Peninsula...




However...


On WV right now i'm seeing the Cold Front stalling, and perhaps even slightly moving to the North. It also has a tucked out sort of long to it, and from some forecasts i've seen it was forecasted to come down with a more horizontal shape.



I see from this what appears like another trough coming down from the Pacific. It looks like it's digging dig quickly and almost as if it will tuck under the Cold Front.



So what are the chances that the storm resumes this NW Motion but the Cold Front doesn't arrive in time. Would this leave the possibility for the ridge to build back in and the system to be driven under the Keys. Furthermore, if that's possible could the next trough dig down and pick the system up or is it likely to go into Texas?


I'm offering this question because i'm just not seeing this trough coming down in time to do what the projections are showing right now. Maybe i'm completely totally wrong and if so, I hope you guys can assure me of this.

[One Eye]

This storm has been moving and relocating WNW all day and looks to be getting a little push from the easterly flow. Hopefull the models will stay over southern Florida and not shift to our west.

[southerngale]

I can't imagine it could turn that much west, but nothing short of a U-turn and trip back to Africa would surprise me at this point.

Perhaps one of our fine mets can address your question.

[johngaltfla]

That is a fascinating question. I'd like to follow it up with a question about the data from the high pressure ridge currently over South Georgia. Has any data indicated that it is stregthening or weakening? I've been on the road all day, so I'm sort of behind the curve right now...

[deltadog03]

I have been trying to say this for the past 2 days. I am still concerend that the short wave coming down will not have a whole lot of effect on ernie.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I saw that someone asked this same question yesterday, but I did not get back to check any answers. The BR/NO NWS still says the front will make it through here so I am sure the sw flow ahead of it is what will steer him north. the high does look to be weakening also. But what do i know I was one that swore up and down he was not going to do exactly what he did. I thought for sure central gulf coast.

[Weatherfreak000]

Well all I can tell is that the Cold Front is still a little far away and honestly it seems like it's practically stationary. I'm honestly beginning to question whether it's gonna make it in time to steer Ernesto.


Also it's easy to note the Ridge is weak, that's clear because of the other influence such as ULL. I think however the ULL is forecasted to move away, shouldn't this allow the Ridge to re-strengthen? And counting that, the reason the system wouldn't move through the Keys would have to be because of the Front.

[Canelaw99]

Bryan Norcross said that the ULL is forecast to move away, to the SW which would allow a more favorable environment for Ernesto, and it would serve to steer it more to the north.

[gatorcane]

The GFDL and AVN models have done VERY well with this system and note that at one point they had Ernest going NW passing Cuba like it is now and the making a WNW turn into the Eastern GOM and then curving back to the N with the approach of the short-wave trough....

Just remember that....anything is possible

[Galvestongirl]

I was wondering the same thing, but did not know how to ask the question. thank you for reading my mind.

[Weatherfreak000]

The GFDL and AVN models have done VERY well with this system and note that at one point they had Ernest going NW passing Cuba like it is now and the making a WNW turn into the Eastern GOM and then curving back to the N with the approach of the short-wave trough....

Just remember that....anything is possible

I'm taking those words well and trust me, by no means am I -removed- this storm in the Gulf.


The effects could be disasterous, a storm moving through the Gulf waters could be scary, much like Dennis, Katrina and Rita of last year. However your post proves my point, the models are forecasting that WNW movement to resume, so it's fair to assume the Cold Front may miss this system and if it does, that second trough may come down and pick it up, but at a later time, giving the Gulf Coast risk for a hurricane.


My point with all this is, in my opinion, as impossible as it seemed for Ernesto to strike the Peninsula, it's not too much of a stretch to rule out the Gulf. We still have to keep our eyes open always until the system completely clears out latitudes.

[chris_fit]

The GFDL and AVN models have done VERY well with this system and note that at one point they had Ernest going NW passing Cuba like it is now and the making a WNW turn into the Eastern GOM and then curving back to the N with the approach of the short-wave trough....

Just remember that....anything is possible

Most of the models had this....

I posted this a 2 days ago, that the trend of all the models was more NW at first then WNW around cube and then gradually NW to N and NNE eventually.

That was the overall pattern, so far it is verifying.

[wolfray]

While we are asking questions; can anyone post a link to a site that gives you a composite of all model runs? I see many of you posting such, but have been unable to find the site. Thanks....

[Weatherfreak000]

Any Pro Mets wanna chime in on this?

[KFDM Meteorologist]

While we are asking questions; can anyone post a link to a site that gives you a composite of all model runs? I see many of you posting such, but have been unable to find the site. Thanks....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

GFDL

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots.html

[linkerweather]

I will say this before I go to bed(i have to be up at 1 am to go to work)
that model plot has ALL of the runs now west of NHC track. Of course all runs are moot, if the inner core is totally gone. Good night

[wolfray]

While we are asking questions; can anyone post a link to a site that gives you a composite of all model runs? I see many of you posting such, but have been unable to find the site. Thanks....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

GFDL

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots.html

Thanks for the links, but I am looking for the graphics that show that model profected paths. All models on one graph. Thanks again.....

[johngaltfla]

Thanks linker. I hope it gets creamed, but Ernie is persistent. I wish I had Bay News 9 down here, but I figure you could be in for another long day tommorrow if he holds together and gets his act together.

[tronbunny]

While we are asking questions; can anyone post a link to a site that gives you a composite of all model runs? I see many of you posting such, but have been unable to find the site. Thanks....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

GFDL

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots.html

Thanks for the links, but I am looking for the graphics that show that model profected paths. All models on one graph. Thanks again.....

Is this any better:
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_05.gif

[wolfray]

While we are asking questions; can anyone post a link to a site that gives you a composite of all model runs? I see many of you posting such, but have been unable to find the site. Thanks....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

GFDL

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots.html

Thanks for the links, but I am looking for the graphics that show that model profected paths. All models on one graph. Thanks again.....

Is this any better:
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_05.gif

That is exactly what I was looking for....Thanks very much....