NHC Stacy Stewart - cheerleader??

[IsaacRules06]

I love Stewarts's discussion and writeups over the years..typically great stuff.

That said, the last two 5am discussions have been pimping Ernesto big time...almost pushing into "cry wolf" territory.

Examples:

1. "rapid intensifaication/deepening" from Sun morning discussion. Nothing of the sort happened on Sunday, he weakened while battling Haiti

2. this morning, calling for possible Cat 2/3 near Miami?? I do not see it.

Anyone else notice these ominious writeups??

[KFDM Meteorologist]

He's the best they have in my opinion.

[Lowpressure]

1 may have been wrong, but do not discount 2 yet. Charley did a lot more with a lot less water.

[Damar91]

He's the best they have in my opinion.

Ditto. He is probably the best they have. IMO.

[IsaacRules06]

KFDM I agree with your assessment of Stewart, which is why I brought this up...people read these discussions and hang on his every word...and one for sure was not even in the ballpark, and todays assessment ain;t looking too great either.

look back at his early discussions on Chris...I think he did the same thing too.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Stacey has been there Done this...he has seen it all...He is nor Cheerleader..

[Cyclenall]

He's the best they have in my opinion.

I strongly agree.

I noticed how he told in the discussion about a possible CAT2/CAT3 making it's way to Florida. Ernesto would have to rapidly strengthen to get there but RI is possible soon. Those waters are enough to do so.

[Extreme Alde]

Gotta say that a forecast is only a bad forecast after the event. If Ernesto has the possibility of intensifying to those levels then it ought be discussed. Remember the whole world is watching this now (after Katrina), I think these guys are incredible - but not infallible

[Three Blind Mice]

next director ,IMHO............

[TampaFl]

He's the best they have in my opinion.

I strongly agree.

I noticed how he told in the discussion about a possible CAT2/CAT3 making it's way to Florida. Ernesto would have to rapidly strengthen to get there but RI is possible soon. Those waters are enough to do so.

Stacey was refering to the SHIPS Model that indicated that the model had it possibley becoming a cat 2 - 3 by the time it reaches FL..


Hurricane ERNESTO
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CONVECTIVE BURSTING PATTERN HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER OF ERNESTO. RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INVESTING THE CYCLONE HAS MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004
MB...BUT WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 35 KT. THEREFORE...THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS CONSERVATIVELY ESTIMATED AT 1002 MB. MAXIMUM 850 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN 48 KT SO FAR...BUT AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT
OVER PASS INDICATED HI-RESOLUTION WINDS OF 40-45 KT IN THE
NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS JUST OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...AS A
RESULT...THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 45 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 325/10. THE RECON FIXES HAVE BEEN
JUMPING AROUND AS NEW CONVECTIVE BURSTS DEVELOP AND THE CENTER HAS
MOVED NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...RADAR DATA FROM CUBA ALSO INDICATES THAT
THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED...SO A MORE GENERAL
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED SHORTLY. THE NHC
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A POSSIBLE
LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF FLORIDA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.
THE 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE THE LATEST NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV JET AIRCRAFT
DROPSONDE DATA IN THEM...AND THIS MAY EXPLAIN THE BETTER AGREEMENT
AND STRONGER CONVERGENCE OF THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS AS COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO
THE RIGHT OR EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE MORE NORTHWARD
POSITION NOTED IN RECON AND RADAR DATA...AND THE EASTWARD SHIFT IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE
OF THE GUNA...GUNS...CONU...AND CCON CONSENSUS MODEL TRACKS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS QUITE COMPLICATED DUE TO POSSIBLE
LAND INTERACTIONS WITH CUBA. IF ERNESTO EMERGES SOONER AND A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH OFF THE COAST OF CUBA...THEN THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE
MORE TIME TO STRENGTHEN OVER VERY WARM SSTS OF 86-88F AND IN A VERY
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS
FORECASTING NEAR-ZERO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...JUST AS ERNESTO IS
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA IN 48 HOURS. THESE
CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ERNESTO BECOMING A
CATEGORY 2 OR EVEN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST.

[benny]

I think he is certainly on the higher side of things usually. That being said, I don't fault him for the Ernesto forecast... all signs really pointed toward intensification IMHO. No one here or anywhere else thought it would fault apart near Haiti. As far as what happens north of Cuba.. it could intensify rapidly but I'd give it a small (but non-negligible) chance. Who knows though...