Ernesto forecast #4: Cat 1 into Miami, up I-95

[Josephine96]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


EXPERIMENTAL HURRICANE FORECAST
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
1235 PM MON AUG 28TH 2006

Tropical Storm Ernesto is fighting for his life this morning as he continues spinning over the eastern Cuban area. This area, which is known to some as a hurricane "graveyard" is giving Ernesto a hard time holding together.

Ernesto is expected to re-emerge either very late today or 1st thing tomorrow, possibly as weak as a tropical depression. But with waters in the mid 80's and little if any shear, he may have the chance to make a name for himself briefly before making landfall in South Florida.

The NHC's current track continues to shift east. Earlier today it was forecast to make landfall on the west coast, then shoot up the peninsula, before exiting in north florida. Now, it is forecast to basically ride the coast all the way up inland I-95.

Hurricane Watches and warnings extend as far north as Volusia County {New Smyrna Beach} and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for all of inland Central Fla and may be upgraded to a warning by tonight or tomorrow.

Ernesto is expected to at the very least bring copious amounts of rain to Central and South Fla. Most of the areas that debatedly still could use the rain.

NHC also keeps Ernesto a Cat 1 as he rides up I-95, this could cause some wind damage in Central Fla as well as South, especially in Brevard, Indian River, Volusia and Flagler Counties, with the potential of strong TS to minimal hurricane winds {at least in gusts} across Metro Orlando, not limited to but including the areas of Orlando, Kissimmee/St Cloud and points northward.

Ernesto will also bring a severe weather threat to Central and South Fla as most TS/hurricanes can do.

Also.. it is not completely impossible that Ernesto still may make landfall on the GOM side of the state. If he takes much longer to exit Cuba, or if the ridge builds back in slightly. He may go slightly west. Even the NHC believes the models may bend back west some.

Here is my current forecast on Ernesto:
Today: Hammering Cuba, weakening. Max winds: 40 mph, may downgrade to TD before exit.
Tuesday: Watches likely changed to warnings across Central or South Fla. Trying to organize before landfall. Max winds: 60 mph
Wednesday: Making landfall sometime during the day near Miami. Cat 1 hurricane possible. Max winds: 80 mph {Strong TS or Cat 1 cane winds could spread into Central Fla as well as he rides the coast}
Thursday:Exiting, into the Atlantic. Watching closely in Carolinas. Max winds: 65 mph
Friday: Watches/warnings for Carolinas?. Back to Cat 1. Max winds: 85 mph