Ernesto Forecast #3: Tampa Bay area south on watch

[Josephine96]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

EXPERIMENTAL HURRICANE FORECAST
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
1150 PM SUN AUG 27TH 2006

Tropical Storm Ernesto briefly became the seasons' 1st hurricane when he maxed out at 75 mph shortly after 5am Sunday. Since then he's showed signs of a weakening trend, but is expected to re-strengthen slightly before crossing over Cuba, and then perhaps back to a Cat 1 or minimal Cat 2 before striking Central or SouthWest Florida. Thus after crossing through the Keys, who are currently under evac orders.

Ernesto has been too close to the Islands of Hispanola, Jamaica, and Cuba today. The land interaction has possibly prevented Ernesto from exploding into a monster storm.

Ernesto is forecast to head over Cuba tomorrow, if it survives the trek, it will re-emerge in the extreme Eastern GOM before crossing through the Keys and then eventually making a landfall in Central or SouthWest Florida. He may increase back to a Cat 1 or Cat 2 due to relaxed shear, warm waters in the mid 80's, as well as if he paralells the coast before going inland.

Residents on the west coast of Florida, especially from Tampa Bay south should watch Ernesto's progress very carefully.

My personal forecast has Ernesto getting a little closer to hurricane strength before crossing Cuba tomorrow, crossing the northern part of the country and then re-emerging in the GOM.

I then have it paralelling the coast before making a landfall as either a strong Cat 1 or a minimal Cat 2 somewhere between Tampa and Sarasota. This because I believe it'll be slightly more north than expected when picked up by an approaching front. It will then cut across the peninsula perhaps bringing strong TS winds sustained and minimal cane force gusts {or slightly stronger} across Central Florida including metro Orlando.

My intensity forecast may seem a little steep, but remember that the NHC's and other pros' biggest obstacle is forecasting intensity of a storm, even if all the perameters for intensification are there.

here is my forecast on Ernesto
Rest of tonight: Slight strengthening, nearing Cuba. Max winds: 60 mph
Monday: Visiting Fidel, weakening expected. Max winds: 50 mph
Tuesday: Back over warm waters, lashing Keys, feeder bands across Miami and rest of South Fla. Max winds: 70 mph
Wednesday: Making landfall somewhere near St Pete. Max winds: 85 mph
Thursday: Exiting the state in north central Fla. Max winds: 50 mph

Forecast and track are subject to errors, some by 100s of miles..