New center possibly forming further North

[Vortex]

Based on Hi-res imager and cuban radar there is some support that the convection forming North of Haiti may indeed be the final center re-formation. If this is the cas this is very disconcerning and means a lot less time fealing with eastern Cuba.
Here is the latest imagery about 9 minutes old..This is very disconcerning if this is the center reformation.

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

[bucman1]

What does that mean for the track ,intensity??

[tampastorm]

Yes seems further north, off land and starting to get its act together again. I assume this is a catch "22",maybe faster strengthening but maybe a track further east off the coast?

[JtSmarts]

Vortex do you think Ernesto could possibly miss the US completely if this trend keeps up?

[stormernie]

Can we have a link to the Cuban radar

[Brent]

What does that mean for the track ,intensity??

If it misses Cuba, it could explode in the Florida Straits and then hit SE Florida while doing so.

[Droop12]

Could be right, exactly what the GFS has been showing. Like I said earlier, who in hell would have thought Miami would be a potential target?

[Normandy]

I dont see any evidence of a center reformation that far north.

[Aquawind]

Can we have a link to the Cuban radar

http://tinyurl.com/jn9ow

[Brent]

I dunno, the Guantanamo Radar shows something though.

http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/products/anim ... &gtype=JPG

[Droop12]

Yep, if it moved NNW from where its at, it spend very little time over Cuba. Then we'd have a whole other ballgame. We'll see I guess.

[Droop12]

Man, I sure wish I could get those links to open, I dunno why they dont work for me, I ave high speed internet.

[cinlfla]

Yep Ernesto looks like he's on the move and to me looks like he is going to miss Cuba maybe clip it but thats about it IMO.

[caneman]

I may be missing something but with the Ull ever so slowly dropping down thru the Bahamas (Seems like that came out of nowhere, guess I wasn't paying attention) it would seem to me that it would spell the end for Ernesto.

[flyingphish]

It would be disconcerting because the storm would probably continue to slowly intensify, however it would probably interact with Florida sooner at points south of the current track projection.

I guess the worst possible scenario would be for this thing to dodge most of Cuba and then meander up along the Fl. W.coast. just offshore, but if it dodges most of Cuba..a landfall in Dade or Monroe county is not a crazy proposition.

[Dean4Storms]

THat far out the radar will be seeing the MLC and above, not the LLC. As Recon found earlier this storm is tilted toward the NE by about 25-35 miles if not further by now. The LLC is still on NHC track just to the west of that tip of Haiti about 30 miles or so. That is why the convection is stretched in that direction. If this continues Ernesto could become decoupled and really lose some steam.

[sma10]

Trying to follow the precise movement of a tropical storm with IR imagery is like trying to catch a rattlesnake by the tail. Without the benefit of an eye, it's extremely difficult.

[Normandy]

THat far out the radar will be seeing the MLC and above, not the LLC. As Recon found earlier this storm is tilted toward the NE by about 25-35 miles if not further by now. The LLC is still on NHC track just to the west of that tip of Haiti about 30 miles or so. That is why the convection is stretched in that direction. If this continues Ernesto could become decoupled and really lose some steam.

To play devil's advocate, right before recon left the storm the storm was not nearly as tilted as u say it is now....and it probably isn't tilted much right now either....

But I still think the center is somewhere near the western tip of Haiti.

[stormspotter]

As I stated earlier today....

Something is not right, can't put my finger on it, but its not right. This storm will not be visiting S or SW Florida. There have been only a couple rare approaches to Florida like the models suggest. Look for one of two scenarios to play out. One - The hurricane slows considerably as it makes it trek, along, in and over Cuba, leading to a reemgergence early on Thur off the North Western tip of Cuba to then threaten Western or Central Gulf from Galveston to Ft. Walton beach. Two - Storm heads slowly northwest across Haiti, north, east of Florida threatening N.C. to Maine.

[fci]

I'm going with Scenario #2.
If the storm grazes Eastern Cuba, a turn to the WNW seems unlikely and a trip up the Bahamas would be more likely; well east of the Florida coast or at least leaving Florida on the weaker side if it does reintensify

Besides dissapation (not exactly impossible); this is the best scenario for Florida through Texas.

Maybe a miss of the U.S. completely!

Lets hope so..