Cleo Versus Ernesto??

[Vortex]

Interesting similarities???

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tracks/1964.gif

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

Looks like Cuba had little/no effect on Cleo
Heres a better link on the eyes
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[AJC3]

Interesting similarities???

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tracks/1964.gif

Interesting differences too

Date: 20 AUG-5 SEP 1964
Hurricane CLEO
ADV LAT LON TIME WIND PR STAT
1 13.10 -44.30 08/20/18Z 30 1003 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2 13.40 -46.80 08/21/00Z 35 - TROPICAL STORM
3 13.70 -49.10 08/21/06Z 40 1000 TROPICAL STORM
4 14.10 -51.30 08/21/12Z 65 - HURRICANE-1
5 14.40 -53.50 08/21/18Z 70 993 HURRICANE-1
6 14.90 -55.70 08/22/00Z 75 993 HURRICANE-1
7 15.30 -57.80 08/22/06Z 100 - HURRICANE-3
8 15.70 -59.70 08/22/12Z 110 970 HURRICANE-3
9 16.00 -61.90 08/22/18Z 115 962 HURRICANE-4
10 16.20 -63.40 08/23/00Z 120 955 HURRICANE-4
11 16.30 -65.00 08/23/06Z 125 - HURRICANE-4
12 16.50 -66.60 08/23/12Z 130 - HURRICANE-4
13 16.70 -68.00 08/23/18Z 135 950 HURRICANE-4
14 16.70 -69.50 08/24/00Z 135 950 HURRICANE-4
15 16.90 -70.60 08/24/06Z 135 - HURRICANE-4
16 17.10 -71.80 08/24/12Z 135 - HURRICANE-4
17 17.80 -73.10 08/24/18Z 130 - HURRICANE-4
18 18.40 -74.60 08/25/00Z 130 - HURRICANE-4
19 18.90 -75.60 08/25/06Z 125 - HURRICANE-4

[fci]

Actually Cleo was a Cat 4 before Cuba and beat down to Cat 1 after leaving.

[Vortex]

lol...Good point

AJ you know there is a chance this comes into SE Florida then runs up the east coast Florida through your area there in Melbourne. Have you talked about this scenario in the office? Also, the tornado threat could be a problem for those on the ne quad...

[AJC3]

lol...Good point

AJ you know there is a chance this comes into SE Florida then runs up the east coast Florida through your area there in Melbourne. Have you talked about this scenario in the office? Also, the tornado threat could be a problem for those on the ne quad...

Yeah, we've been talking about it this evening. Still so much uncertainty this far out in both track and intensity. Been looking at the weak ULL near 25N and 73-74W this evening. Appears to be moving WSW. GFS takes it down toward Cuba before it gets crushed between the high to the north and developing outflow from Ernie. Wondering if it will put a little bit of a dent in the mean ridge to the north of Ernie. I think either way the system goes, west side or east, it'll become a real mess by mid-late week.

Bigger key is the land interaction. How long it can stay over water before it moves onto Cuba, and then how much time it actually spends over Cuba. Busy week ahead...

[Steve H.]

Yeah I just noticed that little ULL to the north of Ernie. How the heck did that sneak in there? I'm here in Palm Bay wondering the same thing. Seems if he keeps a NW heading or does a center wobble northward, he could miss or stay just over the eastern portion of Cuba for a shorter time. His convection if looking rather poor right now though. He needs all the warm water he can get to survive I believe. The mountains cut up his NE quad significantly. Somehow I believe he'll prevail though. But the GFS isn't too impressed with his energy level.