Tropical storm Ernesto
3pm pst/6pm est
8-27-2006
Ernesto weakens to tropical storm as it moves over southwestern Hati. Over the last 12 hours changes have happen. For one the models where not seeing a ULL at 25 north...With a surface trough attached from this ULL to the cyclone. In the surface maps at 850 to 500 millibars you still can not see the weakness. But its there because of the showers firing between the two. The 500 to 200 millibar maps shows that the highs are in fact split...With a smaller high centered at 23/70. The main high over the central United states to 75 west...Was expected to pull the system under it. But on water vapor it shows this ULL moving westward slowly with the cyclone...Which should keep the weakness between the two ridges of high pressure. The latest Gfs in which has done the best with this system so far...Shows that this system should take a northwest track over the next 24 hours...Then a high finally builds to its north after 24 hours. While north of Cuba around 75-76 west.(18z gfs). The model shows a west-northwest track for the 24 to 48 period. With a landfall over southern Florida around 48-60 hours. This looks likely being that a high should form over the system by then. But at 48-60 hours the trough over the central US should make a weakness in this ridge. So the Gfs looks very good. After that this system should turn northward then northeastward...So chances are this could move through Florida then swing shot out to sea around 72-84 hours.
Strength...
Recon is finding that the system has in fact weaken to a tropical storm...In fact maybe not even a 50 knot one. Maybe no more then 40 to 45 knots. The system will likely make it back into the sea between hati and Cuba tonight. With faverable upper level enviroment expect some strengthing...But around 18-24 a landfall over eastern cuba looks likely. I will say that this system will weaken to a 40 knot tropical storm over eastern Cuba. Then pull north in track with the latest Gfs(18z). This system will still have faverable upper levels to work with. So if the core is not to messed up restrenghing into a hurricane is likely.
Forecast winds
0 50 knots
12 45 knots
18 60 knots About to make landfall...
24 40 knots-Over Cuba
30 45 knots
36 60 knots
40 70 knots
48 75 knots
60 50 knots Over southern Florida...
72 40 knots moving off Florida...
Forecaster Matthew
If I blow this then this storm has beaten me.
