Strong Mid Level shear over Ernesto

[Derek Ortt]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... idshr.html

I dont want this getting buried under the drivel

Look at the SW mid levle shear from a mid level anti-cyclone displaced to the east. Today, Ernesto has experienced about 20KT of mid-level shear and as we saw just a couple of days ago, ML shear is extremely destructive

[JtSmarts]

Was ML shear the same thing that took Chris out?

[Derek Ortt]

and I believe it is what nearly took out Claudette, undercutting shear

[Droop12]

Makes sense Derek, but its hard to see on the visible shot any shear. Anyways, I took a look at the shear tendency and its not gonna be a problem soon.

[WxGuy1]

I wonder how much of that is due to circulation of Ernesto itself... I mean, you'll often see objective maps analyze decent shear on the periphery of a hurricane owing to the cyclonic-anticyclone lowlevel - upperlevel flow almost always present at the periphery of hurricanes. Of course, lowlevel flow is convergence cyclonic, while upperlevel flow is divergent anticylonic, so there SHOULD be perceived shear on hurricanes, particularly along the edges where satellite estimates may be able to gauge low-level flow better.

[Derek Ortt]

Normally I would agree, but this is right through the storm, leading me to believe that something is slightly displaced

The shear tendency, I dont believe will show this, since I believe that is deep shera, which is fine

[CronkPSU]

so will the shear continue or will it be a momentary pause in the strengthening of Ernesto?

[gatorcane]

I honestly don't see much evidence of any shear that will tear this apart. It would be land interaction but it may manage to just slip right inbetween Hispaniola and Cuba.

[Dean4Storms]

That makes real good sense with what we've been seeing take place thus far today.

[Scorpion]

I think its dead. Look how it just unraveled. So similar to Chris.

[Derek Ortt]

its not dead and it should be out of this shear soon

However, what this may have done is reduce the chances of a major cane in the GOM

[gatorcane]

its not dead and it should be out of this shear soon

However, what this may have done is reduce the chances of a major cane in the GOM

maybe Derek but the speed it is going combined with extremely warm SSTs AND the fact it may not even be over land that long if it slips between Hispaniola and Cuba could still be a major cane.

I'm calling for it to reach major cane status before landfall in the US still.

[cheezyWXguy]

I think its dead. Look how it just unraveled. So similar to Chris.

It looks nothing like Chris....this is in no way dead. I think theres a little wishing in there

[Derek Ortt]

I dont think land has influenced this yet, though

the recent convective burst near the center may be a sign that the ML shera has already started to weaken

[Droop12]

Is this the reason we see clouds streaming NE from Ernesto. It looks like those clouds are being sheared away. IMO, the storm hasnt unraveled, just hit a temporary roadblock.

[hurricanedude]

derek...you thinking maybe a cat 1 or 2 for florida..Im going low end 1...think thats a bit underdone??

[Droop12]

I agree Derek, lets see what happens in the near future, conditions seem fine for intensification once it moves further away from Haiti, between Jamaica and Cuba, the same area Dennis rapidly intensified in.

[Jam151]

Currently this isn't even a Hurricane right now, and yeah this is a road block but its about to hit a brick wall with cuba. I'm not expecting it reach cane status again with all these factors. Could happen...but doubt it...

[curtadams]

I wonder how much of that is due to circulation of Ernesto itself... I mean, you'll often see objective maps analyze decent shear on the periphery of a hurricane owing to the cyclonic-anticyclone lowlevel - upperlevel flow almost always present at the periphery of hurricanes. Of course, lowlevel flow is convergence cyclonic, while upperlevel flow is divergent anticylonic, so there SHOULD be perceived shear on hurricanes, particularly along the edges where satellite estimates may be able to gauge low-level flow better.

This is mid-shear, which isn't much amplified by hurricanes.

I honestly don't see much evidence of any shear that will tear this apart. It would be land interaction but it may manage to just slip right inbetween Hispaniola and Cuba.

You couldn't possibly see this mid-shear underneath the convection.

That said, it looks to me like this is *just* SE of Ernesto and he's not doomed yet. Just a little more though, and it's goodbye.

[ConvergenceZone]

Currently this isn't even a Hurricane right now, and yeah this is a road block but its about to hit a brick wall with cuba. I'm not expecting it reach cane status again with all these factors. Could happen...but doubt it...

I agree, there's too much against this now for it to reach cane status. You can almost guarantee that this strength forecast will be coming down on the next advisory. If it hits Cuba as a tropical storm and not a hurricane, then it's over for sure...Cuba would only weaken a hurricane, but it would destroy a tropical storm. Central Florida still may get a tropical storm out of this though, because even if it weakens to a wave, there's still a chance it can get another LLC together and form into a tropical storm before hitting Florida, but that's a big IF.....This is fantastic news though!!! Hopefully all of the hype on this storm will be going away soon....

I will say that if by chance it manages to re-strengthen to a hurriane before hitting Cuba, then a weak cat 1 cane IS still possible for central florida....