GFS suggests an active start of September!

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

GFS have been consistent hinting development of areas of low pressure off the African coast, and moves them in a general westward track toward the Caribbean. All eyes are now in Ernesto, but is interesting though...
GFS 12Z
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[CrazyC83]

I agree; I think September will be a ferociously active month. I'm predicting 8 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes (not counting Ernesto) in September.

[Duffy]

I agree; I think September will be a ferociously active month. I'm predicting 8 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes (not counting Ernesto) in September.

Wow thats bullish....what are you basing your prediction on?

[cycloneye]

12z GFS Loop at 384 Hours

Impressive the CV train that GFS has in the next 2 weeks.

[curtadams]

GFS have been consistent hinting development of areas of low pressure off the African coast, and moves them in a general westward track toward the Caribbean. All eyes are now in Ernesto, but is interesting though...
GFS 12Z
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Now that's a disturbing loop. That's a *parade* of CV storms (mostly weak, fortunately) marching across the Atlantic. I hope the GFS is being its usual overenthusiastic self.

[DESTRUCTION5]

12 Brings Ernesto thru the heart of FL with worst wx on est side

[cinlfla]

Well now thats an eye opener lets hope that doesn't pan out.

[Duffy]

GFS have been consistent hinting development of areas of low pressure off the African coast, and moves them in a general westward track toward the Caribbean. All eyes are now in Ernesto, but is interesting though...
GFS 12Z
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Now that's a disturbing loop. That's a *parade* of CV storms (mostly weak, fortunately) marching across the Atlantic. I hope the GFS is being its usual overenthusiastic self.

Actually weak may be bad news because the Stronger storms go poleward, where as the Weaker ones that aren't influenced by the upper Level Winds as much continue westbound

[cycloneye]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

18z Loop at 384 hours.

It has a near hurricane near or over me by the september 7 date.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/index_ten_l_loop.shtml

18z Loop at 384 hours.

It has a near hurricane near or over me by the september 7 date.

Interesting Luis. The model has been consistent. Time will tell!

[cycloneye]

Full Disk Image


I think I see the system GFS wants to develop in the Eastern Atlantic and is that big blob that is almost past the central part of the African Continent.

[beachbum_al]

Looks like we are going to be busy in Sept from the looks of that map.

[cycloneye]

Eumetsat

Another view of the next candidates.

[weatherwindow]

shades of 1928 and san felipe, luis....with a 9/11 hit on seafla following the 9/7 visit for pr.......lets hope not.....rich

[Jim Cantore]

GFS tends to be an aggresive model when it comes to developing storms. However I believe September will be quite active.

[JonathanBelles]

Eumetsat

Another view of the next candidates.

look at the pretty colors what do they mean?
am i right in saying there are 5 candidates?

[brunota2003]

Eumetsat

Another view of the next candidates.

If you look on that sat image you can clearly see the rotation with the "dry" low just west of the Cape Verde Islands...thats a pretty neat sat image...is it a 6 hour update or what?

[cycloneye]

shades of 1928 and san felipe, luis....with a 9/11 hit on seafla following the 9/7 visit for pr.......lets hope not.....rich

Yes Rich,that 1928 hurricane has been the only cat 5 (160 mph sustained) that has made landfall in Puerto Rico in the history of all the seasons meaning that this generation dosen't know what consequenses a cat 5 bring to any place.

[Extremeweatherguy]

September should be very interesting indeed. I think we will see at least one more GOM threat and a few threats to the East Coast before the month is through. Ernesto and Chris were just "test runs" IMO for what will be the real deal down the road.

[skysummit]

I just skimmed these entries so sorry if I missed it. The 18z GFS develops a wave in the Central Atlantic, and turns it into a hurricane hitting near Miami before shooting it up the east coast.