Low in SW Caribbean?

[Dean4Storms]

Just noticed a LL spin in the SW Carib. just east of Nicaraqua apparently moving NW. I also noticed that the WRF/NAM seems to take this low and develops it off the Yucatan in the 06z run.

Any ideas on this?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html


WRF/NAM run........


http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.etauspcp.html

[Stormavoider]

It seems to really interact with Ernie on that model run.

[Dean4Storms]

It seems to really interact with Ernie on that model run.

Yes it does. I'm not swallowing it at this point, but it is something to keep an eye toward if we see an increase in convection with it over the next day or so.

[cajungal]

I looked on my local weather message board http://www.gulfcoastwx.com/forums where a poster posted about this. And said a model I think the GFDL developed it on the last 2 runs and it brings it to the Yucatan. Anyone has any thoughts on this? But, I know everyone is on Ernesto but it is Sept and it is going to be getting very busy soon with other possible systems.

[Kennethb]

JB mentioned something about the western GOM later in the week. He is riding his analog and consistent about his concerns there.

[KatDaddy]

What were Joe B's thoughts? With frontal systems moving down from the deep trough forecasted across the US I would be curious to hear the details.

[Portastorm]

JB mentioned something about the western GOM later in the week. He is riding his analog and consistent about his concerns there.

Oh please ... no more about "the western GOM." It ain't happening man. It's over.

[KatDaddy]

The Brownsville NWS does discuss it but also dismisses


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
200 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

.DISCUSSION...500 MB RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE SHORT RANGE. MEAN RH FIELDS INDICATED IN
THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATE FAIRLY LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND ACCORDINGLY THE MAV AND MET
FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOW ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS AT BEST THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS WHEN THE AFTERNOON HEATING AND SEA BREEZE EFFECTS ARE
AT THEIR MAX. THE MAJOR DISCREPANCY IN THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS
THE NAM WHICH PULLS UP A TROPICAL SYSTEM FROM THE WESTERN CARIB INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF DURING THE 60 TO 84 HOUR RANGE. SINCE NONE OF THE
OTHER MODELS REFLECT THIS AND THE NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A TENDENCY TO
INFERIOR PERFORMANCE IN TRACKING TROPICAL CYCLONES (REF THE HPC
MODEL BIAS WEB PAGE - http://WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MDLBIAS/BIASTEXT.HTML)
AM GOING TO IGNORE THIS SCENARIO PRODUCED BY THE NAM AT THIS TIME.

[BayouVenteux]

JB mentioned something about the western GOM later in the week. He is riding his analog and consistent about his concerns there.

Man, he's gonna get that seasonal landfall forecast to verify with a Texas storm this year or die trying!

The irony is that the area that he originally had as a low probability area in his seasonal outlook -- the extreme eastern panhandle/"Big Bend" area of Florida -- appears to be possibly shaping up as positioned along the favored general "route" of sorts for this season, as evidenced by the path taken by Alberto, the "downstream" area off the Carolina coast where Beryl formed, and the current progged route of Ernesto going that way as well.

[amawea]

Portastorm,
I don't think he meant Ernesto.

[LaBreeze]

Oh for goodness sake! The Western GOM is in the clear - nothing on the horizon for that area. The season for the western GOM appears to be having it's closing credits.

[Wx_Warrior]

Lets get thru ernie first

[Portastorm]

Oh, I know he was referring to another system ... one the NAM spins up and one that doesn't even remotely exist at the moment.

I'm with LaBreeze ... I think we're about done here. If these fronts are going to truly start dipping as far south later next week as central Texas and Louisiana ... then the westerlies will take over and goodbye tropical season for our part of the Gulf.

Am I disappointed? Yeah, I sure am because I think most of us could use a nice little nominal tropical storm with several days of beneficial rain. Instead, I'm sitting under Day 30 of 100 degrees or more since June 1st and the hottest August EVER at one of Austin's official reporting stations.

I'm getting that Charlie Brown feeling about Lucy swiping the football after convincing me she's going to hold it for my kick ... the kind of feeling I told folks here several years ago when forecasters promised ice and snow events only to watch cloudy and cold unfold ... and no ice, no snow!

"Portastorm ends rant, goes back under ceiling fan"

[crazycajuncane]

Oh for goodness sake! The Western GOM is in the clear - nothing on the horizon for that area. The season for the western GOM appears to be having it's closing credits.

Please remember... Lili and Rita.... both storms hit in late Sept-Oct.... we are not in the clear and don't jinx us.... we don't need it.

[KatDaddy]

Yes Sir VB!! Dont forget Hurricane Juan late Oct, 1985 and the Oct 1 1949 hurricane. We have quite sometime before the WGOM is all clear this season

With troughs setting up and weak fronts moving into the N GOM home grown trouble can help.

The WGOM is still very warm and primed.

[Steve]

>>I'm with LaBreeze ... I think we're about done here. If these fronts are going to truly start dipping as far south later next week as central Texas and Louisiana ... then the westerlies will take over and goodbye tropical season for our part of the Gulf

Don't expect permanent fall in early September. That's really rare down here. The fronts will retreat, and the Gulf is more or less virgin (outside of lots of disorganized, disturbed weather that has been churning it a little bit) storm territory. No way the Gulf season's over unless the whole basin shuts down. I don't see that happening either.

But it is interesting to speculate that if other dynamics don't come into play, Alberto and (maybe) Ernesto may establish the western boundaries of the season for storms of purely tropical origin.

Steve

[Johnny]

Now hold on second. My gosh, this hurricane season is just NOW fixing to ramp up for the first time this year.

Portastorm, I know exactly where you are coming from. I'm a big time whitetail deer hunter and fisherman so I am a regular member over at a few Texas hunting and fishing boards. I've talked to alot of guys who hunt in south, Texas and the Hill Country and they are praying for rain. A nice tropical storm would be a serious blessing. The ranchers are paying big time down Texas way. A good tropical storm is needed badly in south, Texas and the Hill Country. It would be welcomed with open arms no doubt!

Their is only one problem. If something does get in the gulf or spins up in the gulf this time of year...it might be a bit more than just a tropical storm. I've heard a good handful of Texans say that they will take a strong hurricane just to get some rain. I had to bring them back to reality that even though they would benefit from it, people along the coast would pay a serious price. All I have to say is, whatever happens happens. I don't control mother nature.



So, are the models still picking up on something????

[TexWx]

looks like a ULL coming off of the Yuc.

[furluvcats]

I wouldn't close the door on anything yet guys...come on!!!

[Wx_Warrior]

Just looked on GFS...nothing yet, but who knows.