11AM Advisory Speed and track thoughts...

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rnbaida

11AM Advisory Speed and track thoughts...

#1 Postby rnbaida » Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:56 am

I have a feeling that they will shift the track to the east and lower the forecast wind speeds...Any thoughts or comments?
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#2 Postby GraysonDave » Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:58 am

This kind of post is more appropriate for the chat room in my opinion.
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feederband
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Re: 11AM Advisory Speed and track thoughts...

#3 Postby feederband » Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:58 am

rnbaida wrote:I have a feeling that they will shift the track to the east and lower the forecast wind speeds...Any thoughts or comments?


Just by the looks of it you maybe right...
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#4 Postby stormspotter » Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:58 am

:fools:
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#5 Postby O Town » Sun Aug 27, 2006 9:00 am

stormspotter wrote::fools:

Whats so funny?
Anyways........... rnbaida, I think you may be right lets wait and see what happens, but it does seem to be the trend of things at this time at this rate it may miss FL all together.
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#6 Postby BOPPA » Sun Aug 27, 2006 9:01 am

O Town - Where do you get that information from? Just curious.
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#7 Postby O Town » Sun Aug 27, 2006 9:03 am

BOPPA wrote:O Town - Where do you get that information from? Just curious.
What information? I said lets wait and see what happens. And also said the trend is each new run the models shift more and more to the east.
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#8 Postby Thatsmrhurricane » Sun Aug 27, 2006 9:10 am

NW 8knts 75 mph winds. The real story will be 1400hrs EST when we can get some recon.
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#9 Postby O Town » Sun Aug 27, 2006 9:34 am

O Town wrote:
BOPPA wrote:O Town - Where do you get that information from? Just curious.
What information? I said lets wait and see what happens. And also said the trend is each new run the models shift more and more to the east.

I thought I already answered your question.
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#10 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sun Aug 27, 2006 9:35 am

Thatsmrhurricane wrote:NW 8knts 75 mph winds. The real story will be 1400hrs EST when we can get some recon.


That sounds very reasonable to me.
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#11 Postby miamicanes177 » Sun Aug 27, 2006 9:36 am

I believe they lower the winds to 70mph and landfall intensity in flroida to 85kts.
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#12 Postby O Town » Sun Aug 27, 2006 9:37 am

BOPPA wrote:o town - sorry - like I said just above - don't know how that got re-posted.
Sorry for the oops - thanks

That was not there when I reposted. No problem. :D
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#13 Postby Brent » Sun Aug 27, 2006 9:40 am

They did lower it a bit.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 20.0N 76.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.5N 78.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 23.1N 80.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 25.5N 82.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 28.0N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

More time over Cuba...
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#14 Postby miamicanes177 » Sun Aug 27, 2006 9:44 am

inland at 80kt...thank goodness for cuba. We dodged the bullet.
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#15 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sun Aug 27, 2006 9:45 am

miamicanes177 wrote:inland at 80kt...thank goodness for cuba. We dodged the bullet.

You didn't dodge it yet.
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#16 Postby tropicsgal05 » Sun Aug 27, 2006 10:21 am

When will we see an adjustment in the track?
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#17 Postby seaswing » Sun Aug 27, 2006 10:30 am

SouthFloridawx wrote:
miamicanes177 wrote:inland at 80kt...thank goodness for cuba. We dodged the bullet.

You didn't dodge it yet.
Absolutely! still has to get through the warm waters of the Gulf stream. This intensity forecast could still change.
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#18 Postby Epsilon_Fan » Sun Aug 27, 2006 10:33 am

I would think Cuba would damage the circulation of the storm worse than that right? About how much time will he stay over land?
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#19 Postby Thunder44 » Sun Aug 27, 2006 10:36 am

miamicanes177 wrote:inland at 80kt...thank goodness for cuba. We dodged the bullet.


Do you how bad TPC forecasts are for intensity, especially after 3 days? Just take as a sign they believe it weaken significantly when it cross over Cuba, assuming it stays on track. But could restrenghten over the GOM before hitting FL.
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#20 Postby Brent » Sun Aug 27, 2006 10:44 am

miamicanes177 wrote:inland at 80kt...thank goodness for cuba. We dodged the bullet.


First of all, an 80 kt hurricane is not easy(Katrina was even weaker than that when it hit South FL).

Second... intensity forecasts are tough. The storm could easily be much stronger, or weaker than that.
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