Southeast Florida concern?

[jinftl]

Does it seem more likely that those of us living in Miami/Fort Lauderdale will have to start thinking about storm preparations?

I know predicting landfall is not possible at this point, but I am trying to gauge if the threat is at least significant enough to use today to 'stock up' in anticipation of possible watches and/or warnings by tomorrow or tuesday?

[Scorpion]

No, this isn't going into SE FL. However, the West coast is under threat and if it expands enough we could see TS-winds.

[hurricanedude]

Jacksonville Metro could get full blown hurricane conditions for the first time since 1960s...if this trend were to verify

[SouthFloridawx]

No, this isn't going into SE FL. However, the West coast is under threat and if it expands enough we could see TS-winds.

Yes the future track is currently uncertain. If you guys remember a certain storm named wilma... I realize different time of the year and different storm.

With 3 outflow channels and no windshear expected through the forecast period ...

THE ENTIRE STATE SHOULD BE CHECKING THIER STOCK OF SUPPLIES AND BEGINING TO PREPARE.

DO NOT TAKE THIS LIGHTLY BECAUSE THE TRACK IS NOT CURRENTLY OVER THE SW COAST.

Let's be proactive here and give people good information.

[jinftl]

with all of the unfinished wilma roof repairs down here (speaking personally!) i am thinking that even strong tropical storm conditions in dade and broward could be a problem....

[Scorpion]

Yes, I am concerned about a potential Cat 3 impact on Cuba and a Cat 2/3 impact on the West Coast.

[SouthFloridawx]

IN FACT
...OUTFLOW CHANNELS HAVE NOW DEVELOPED TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF
ERNESTO...WITH A THIRD CHANNEL POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TO THE WEST AND
INTO AN UPPER-LOW MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN. THIS
VERY FAVORABLE LOW-SHEAR AND ENHANCED OUTFLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST
BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. IF ERNESTO DOESN'T LINGER OVER CUBA
FOR MORE THAN 24 HOURS...THEN MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH SEEMS LIKELY
BY 96-108 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT
HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY
MODEL FORECASTS.

[jinftl]

If the current forecast track persists, does it seem likely that Southeast Florida would at least be put under a tropical storm or hurricane watch?

Again, I realize this is all conjecture at this point, but just trying to get a gauge of what things will be like today when people turn on the news and start hearing about the storm.

[Scorpion]

If it were to hit SE FL, it would be as a TS or minimal Cat 1, since it would go over Eastern Cuba.

[Vandora]

Thanks for posting this, jinftl. We're in Miami, and moving to Ohio in a few weeks. I'm more worried then usual, because we can't not move (lease is up), and we have no TV (had it shut off early), and we're renting a mini-van to move. So I was wondering what we're looking at here.

As usual, I think we should all (in Florida) prepare. Things can, and always do, change.

[jinftl]

thanks for the feedback to my question...i guess it comes down to always being 'prepared' during hurricane season, but if we haven't done the things we should have done on June 1 (stocking up on batteries, water, etc), it would probably not be a bad idea to do it today!

[tropicsgal05]

Looks like the Panhandle may be out of the woods hopefully. Don't wish this storm on anyone.

[cinlfla]

Bottom Line is that you can't rule out, however unlikely, a landfall in SE Florida. The ENTIRE state needs to be watching this...right now...if you look at TWC, what's the ONLY state in the cone of uncertainty? The ENTIRE state of Florida so...truthfullness and barebone facts, the entire Sunshine State is going to wake up today and find that they need to watch this alot closer than two days ago.

k e v i n . c h o
naples, fl

I agree, do not forget how narrow our state is if your feeling it on the west coast your going to get some of it on the east cost Charlie pretty much raked up through the state look what happaned in Orlando. Just some food for thought.

[jinftl]

local newstations in miami are starting hourly updates....the tone i get from them is that there is definitely a heightened level of interest and 'concern'...not alarmed, but vigilant.

[jabber]

I agree. Yesterday it was not going to Florida. I will start some preps today... just in case. I will not be caught of guard like I was for Irene... which was also 'supposed' to hit around Tampa.

No, this isn't going into SE FL. However, the West coast is under threat and if it expands enough we could see TS-winds.

Yes the future track is currently uncertain. If you guys remember a certain storm named wilma... I realize different time of the year and different storm.

With 3 outflow channels and no windshear expected through the forecast period ...

THE ENTIRE STATE SHOULD BE CHECKING THIER STOCK OF SUPPLIES AND BEGINING TO PREPARE.

DO NOT TAKE THIS LIGHTLY BECAUSE THE TRACK IS NOT CURRENTLY OVER THE SW COAST.

Let's be proactive here and give people good information.

[jinftl]

agree...focusing on a particular city or coastline area of florida is really what the experts don't want us to do....i have already heard from people here that, 'the storm is going to tampa' or 'we are barely in the cone'.....

[fci]

No, this isn't going into SE FL. However, the West coast is under threat and if it expands enough we could see TS-winds.

Don't people read and learn?

I respect Derek a ton but he said last night
again, for the 2 millionth time

This is not moving NNW

This will not hit Haiti

This will not hit the Peninsula of Florida


GFS is again showing itself as a useless model

Apparently not going to be correct on at least some of his statement.

Point being you should not say "IT IS NOT" going to do anything as you just don't know!

All bets are off with this one on where it is going, how Cuba will affect it and its intensity after Cuba.

[wzrgirl1]

nobody predicted this not even the nhc.........it's not derek's fault

[sprink52]

At this point the entire state should keep an eye on Ernesto and prepare to put the initial stages of our hurricane plans in effect. Some one's world is going to change over the next 5~6 days.

[jusforsean]

Remember not to focus on the landfall point as bad weather protrudes a few hundred miles from the center so squalls can effect a large portion and we must be prepared for even that especially those of us in mobile homes like us here in south florida. If someone sneezes the power goes out:)