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when I awoke this morning with the change in track. WOW!. All should start reviewing there hurricane plans now and be prepared to respond come Tuesday - Thursday. If this track were to verify, this is the worst case senario for West Central Florida - a a storm moving right up the West Coast.
Kevin_Cho wrote:Not to downplay the NE FL area, but atm I think it's one of the safe areas of FL to be in if you had the choice. It'd be just the problem of getting out aftewards as there could be power outages and no flights in the area.
jdray wrote:Kevin_Cho wrote:Not to downplay the NE FL area, but atm I think it's one of the safe areas of FL to be in if you had the choice. It'd be just the problem of getting out aftewards as there could be power outages and no flights in the area.
NE Florida would be "safe" from surge, but inland wind events are not fun either.
I had 50-60 mph winds with higher gusts from both Frances and Jeanne.
Lost power for a week, phone for a week as well.
This accelerating and very asymmetrical storm moved inland north of Cedar Key and progressed northward across Lake City, Fl. and Jesup, Ga. The storm was moving rapidly ahead of a large Polar air outbreak and has already been identified as major in the southeast Gulf of Mexico. Period reports indicate this was a major event over land also. After the eye passed over Lake City the winds there were estimated to be 150 mph Endnote , although that value must be used with extreme caution. Tremendous destruction occurred in a 50 mile wide swath from Cedar Key to Savannah, with most of the damage occurring east of the center. The center appears to have made landfall near the mouth of the Suwannee River between 6 and 6:30 AM (Partagas brings the center onshore to early) and passed across Fort White at 7:30 AM and Lake City around 8 AM . The center was later identified at Guyton, Ga, west of Savannah, between 12:30 and 12:45 PM. This is an approximate track distance of 215 statute miles and estimating a 7 hour transit time yields a forward motion slightly in excess of 30 mph.
Maximum wind speeds at downtown Jacksonville were southeast at 70 mph (60 statute miles east of the storm center). Period accounts of the 2 October 1898 hurricane indicate the 1896 hurricane had a higher wind velocity at Darien, along the Georgia coast. Endnote Based on a best fit hurricane using the SLOSH model, a central pressure of 960 mb with a 15 nm Radius of Maximum Wind is indicated at landfall. This central pressure suggest a 115 mph from the Gulf of Mexico wind-pressure relationship (Landsea et. al. 2002). With a smaller than usual RMW for this central pressure and latitude and a rapid forward motion (30-35 mph at landfall), winds are estimated at 125 mph at landfall. landfall. A 963 mb central pressure estimated via Ho's methodology for 12Z on the 29th suggests 106 mph from the subtropical wind-pressure relationship
- 115 mph chosen due to small RMW and fast speed of motion although the hurricane is overland. Period reports of damage to structures and forested areas are consistent with this estimate, suggesting this was a major hurricane inland over northeast florida. Surface analysis suggest an outer pressure of 1014 to 1016 mb would be appropriate for this event.
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