Ernesto #2: Shift in models, shift in concern

[Josephine96]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

EXPERIMENTAL HURRICANE FORECAST
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
1215 AM SUN AUG 27TH 2006

Tropical Storm Ernesto continues to keep everyone on guard living from Florida all the way to Texas as he grew from 40 mph to 60 mph on Saturday with a good possibility on Sunday of becoming the 1st hurricane of 2006.

A significant development occured today with a major jerk to the east in most if not all major model runs, including the NHC which appears to now be pointing a landfall on the extreme western panhandle of Florida or perhaps extreme eastern Alabama.

It appears forecasts are setting up for the potential of the high protecting Florida to retreat/break down, and a slow moving trough to perhaps influence Ernesto and send him either N, NE or ENE, possibly into the Sunshine state.

Ernesto first will be making interaction with Jamaica and Cuba. Where he crosses Cuba could very well determine where he potentially ends up headed up the coast of Fla should he decide to go that way.

The west coast of Florida from Cedar Key all the way down needs to be extremely vigilant especially early next week when Ernestos fate may be signed, sealed and delivered.

My intensity and current prediction have Ernesto making landfall somewhere between Pensacola and the Big Bend. Thus because I don't wanna sound too bullish or like a wishcaster by a potential west coast florida hit.

Here are my current predictions on Ernesto.

Rest of tonight. Organizing, maybe strengthening. Hurricane by daybreak? Max winds: 65 mph
Sunday: Coming very close to Jamaica and approaching part of Cuba. Seasons' 1st hurricane. Max winds: 80 mph
Monday: watching very carefully, Crossing over Cuba. Max winds: 90 mph
Tuesday: Into the GOM, all eyes peeled. Watching carefully in Florida, Alabama and Miss. Max winds: 100 mph
WednesdaY:Bearing down on the west coast or panhandle. Max winds: 115 mph

Track and intensity forecasts subject to errors, some by 100's of miles.

[Acral]

Without the recon data, your forecast seems entirely plausible and, in fact, likely.

I am thinking that this system will skirt more eastward than the previous NHC track, but that GFL model will not pan out IMO.