00z GFS Lanfall over S.Fl and the Keys in 72 hours

[Vortex]

The 8/26 00z GFS run was initialized very well and indicates Ernesto making landfall over Eastern Cuba then moving NW into the florida straits and strengthening some and making landfall over SE Florida and the Keys.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_072l.gif

[Canelaw99]

That's my response to the model....

I'm hoping that this one turns out to be incorrect, and it may, we don't know yet, but I sure hope it's wrong. I'm *crossing fingers* going to be in Titusville as of tomorrow for the Atlantis launch and won't be here to pull stuff off the patio, just in case. Stupid storms.....why can't they just all behave and go away?

[Vortex]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif


Inland over southern florida

[KFDM Meteorologist]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084l.gif

500 from GFS..Interesting if it happens. It moves the high west across florida into the eastern and central Gulf driving Ernie into FL.

[Vortex]

moving into sw FL dumping tremendously heavy rainfall across southern florda


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_090l.gif

[stormspotter]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_084l.gif


Inland over southern florida

[Canelaw99]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_090l.gif

That one almost looks like it could exit the SW coast of Fl and get back into the Gulf to strike fear in the rest of the Gulf Coast. Maybe Ernie has his sights on the whole area....???

[caneman]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_090l.gif

That one almost looks like it could exit the SW coast of Fl and get back into the Gulf to strike fear in the rest of the Gulf Coast. Maybe Ernie has his sights on the whole area....???

Ernie aKa Donna? LEts hope not

[Vortex]

If and I mean If this panned out and by no means is this a given I'd say less than 30% the good news is it would likely be a worst a cat 1 given the fact it would be crossing the mountanious portions of cuba.

[fci]

If and I mean If this panned out and by no means is this a given I'd say less than 30% the good news is it would likely be a worst a cat 1 given the fact it would be crossing the mountanious portions of cuba.

Can't really fathom this happening but I think a trip across Eastern Cuba would tear it apart; literally.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

If and I mean If this panned out and by no means is this a given I'd say less than 30% the good news is it would likely be a worst a cat 1 given the fact it would be crossing the mountanious portions of cuba.

But it's over the gulfstream for over 36 hours and over the Kerys and water for 24 hours. Plenty of time to regenerate I'm afraid.

[Vortex]

h-96 moving North into south/central florida

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_096l.gif

H-102 beginning to move nne across orlando

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_102l.gif

H-108 moving NE and ready to exit off Daytona

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_108l.gif

[MWatkins]

I was hoping to pull up the start of the NOGAPS run to quickly discount this idea...

But unfortunately...that didn't work out so good.

Through 48 hours NOGAPS is on the same general idea...although with a cut through the Windward passage...on the north coast of Cuba through 48 hours then...well it's only through 48 hours...but emerging from Cuba east of Florida.

Looking at the heights it's hard to see this going head on into the 588DM ridge like that...and I wonder of all of the HDOB data somehow made it into the model and perhaps skewed it some. It sure looks like a Frances replay where the models were taking Frances into the teeth of a 588DM ridge.

Going to be interesting to see what the other globals are up to.

MW

[AtlanticWind]

I dont think the Gfs solution is impossible but Until some other models show some trend toward this I am not to worried.

[HurricaneBill]

If and I mean If this panned out and by no means is this a given I'd say less than 30% the good news is it would likely be a worst a cat 1 given the fact it would be crossing the mountanious portions of cuba.

But it's over the gulfstream for over 36 hours and over the Kerys and water for 24 hours. Plenty of time to regenerate I'm afraid.

True. Look what happened with Georges.

[MWatkins]

I think one thing is certain...the Keys will have to start getting non-residents out in the morning. And the hype machine will ramp up big time...

Earlier the GFS had Ernesto way too shallow but I don't see that in this run, so the credibility goes up some.

NOGAPS through 72 shows a nearly direct impact to the keys...as seen here in the 500MB charts.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 00&tau=072

Further west than GFS but not by much.

MW

[caneman]

[quote="MWatkins"]I think one thing is certain...the Keys will have to start getting non-residents out in the morning. And the hype machine will ramp up big time...

Earlier the GFS had Ernesto way too shallow but I don't see that in this run, so the credibility goes up some.

NOGAPS through 72 shows a nearly direct impact to the keys...as seen here in the 500MB charts.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 00&tau=072

Further west than GFS but not by much.

Thank you finally a voice of reason. People want to talk about what is impossible rather than what is taking place and discount NOGAP and GFS. Models that actually at this point seem to be performing best. Doesn't mean they will long term but for now are...... And even if Ernesto doesn't go that far East but doesn't go as far West as say the GFDL. There is a pretty populate West coast of Florida that could come into play.

[fci]

Mike:
If GFS and NOGAPS were correct, do you think that Eastern Cuba would tear it to shreads?

And why the sudden right turn contrary to the other models?

What are they seeing that others aren't??

[dwg71]

If your in the 3 day cone, you need to begin preps tomorrow, at this time the only part of conus that fits that is the keys and extreme southwest Fl.

You can discount the models all you want, but the three day cone is nothing to jack around with, and if anybody says you dont have anything to worry about in the keys (which someone did just a few minutes ago), I would error to the side of caution, because even at current nhc track the east/dirty side of Ernie

[CourierPR]

In 1964 Cleo came across Eastern Cuba, weakened to a tropical storm and then strengthened significantly as it impacted Southeast Florida. Winds were over 110 miles per hour.