Now, you may think this was memorized and then respat out from another post at another bb, that's not true. I'm posting this in my own words.
First, let's take a look at the models.
12Z GFS shows a little postive tilt trough which would induce a weakness and bring Ernesto into the FL Panhandle and into the Southeast. 12Z Euro agrees.
This is the first scenario. This scenario branches into another two options. The 12Z Euro stalls Ernesto out and brings it back into the GOM (this part I got from the other bb). 12Z GFS sweeps it along and Ernesto says goodbye.
Graphic of the first two scenarios:
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The other scenario would happen if:
a) Ernesto remains weak and shallow
b) Ernesto intensifies rapidly into a Major... and thus would be more resistant to the shortwave trough
c) Ernesto does not gain enough latitude
d) The shortwave (b/c its so progressive) does not have time to recurve Ernie or it completely misses it
e) The shortwave weakens enough to have a negligible effect
Notice the pattern is very progressive - big differences in both timing and strength of shortwave in 120 hr in the GFS Ensembles:
Also notice how 850mb wind vectors remain unscathed by the shortwave:
If this happens... TX/LA, maybe even Mexico if the ridge builds in stronger than expected.
So... in conclusion... don't rule out anything yet. Both TX and FL is possible. Significant wobbles and relocations are VERY critical especially about 24-48 hr down the road.
I'll post some more maps later. Let's see how the 0Z run does.
*edited by Lindaloo to add disclaimer to top of forecast.
