TS Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread XI (#11)

[mtm4319]

Thread 1 (Started as pre-Invest 97L, Mon Aug 21, 2006 6:35 am)
Thread 2 (Started as Invest 97L, Wed Aug 23, 2006 4:23 pm)
Thread 3 (Started as Invest 97L, Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:05 am)
Thread 4 (Started as Invest 97L, Thu Aug 24, 2006 3:07 pm)
Thread 5 (Started as TD #5, Thu Aug 24, 2006 11:03 pm)
Thread 6 (Started as TD #5, Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:24 am)
Thread 7 (Started as TS Ernesto, Fri Aug 25, 2006 4:42 pm)
Thread 8 (Started as TS Ernesto, Fri Aug 25, 2006 10:09 pm)
Thread 9 (Started as TS Ernesto, Sat Aug 26, 2006 2:42 am)
Thread 10 (Started as TS Ernesto, Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:55 am)

[KFDM Meteorologist]

[dwg71]

wow, fl west coast in cone, tx is not.

[JonathanBelles]

i thought it would be, this is a trend

[gatorcane]

what we can hope for is that the center relocates again and the track goes right over Cuba and rips it apart....that is what I am hoping.

[PTPatrick]

actually, I got the opposite from the disscussion...NHC CLEARLY stated that the GFS is "DUBIOUS". They do agree on a weakness, but it sounds like they are not ready to forecast a FL peninsula hit by way of eastern cuba and the Keys.

[gatorcane]

actually, I got the opposite from the disscussion...NHC CLEARLY stated that the GFS is "DUBIOUS". They do agree on a weakness, but it sounds like they are not ready to forecast a FL peninsula hit by way of eastern cuba and the Keys.

but if the TUTT keeps pushing the CDO NE and the center relocates NE, the chances dramatically increase....the next 24 hours are critical for this system as far as track goes.

[Sanibel]

Ernesto starting to take hurricane Dvorak.

North of track now and stronger than expected.

Track now north of Jamaica.

Starting cautious concern for Florida.


Watch this keep moving right.

[Brent]

actually, I got the opposite from the disscussion...NHC CLEARLY stated that the GFS is "DUBIOUS". They do agree on a weakness, but it sounds like they are not ready to forecast a FL peninsula hit by way of eastern cuba and the Keys.

Yeah...

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS SOLUTION OF
BRINGING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ERNESTO TO SOUTH FLORIDA LOOKS
DUBIOUS...AS THE 500 MB CENTER STAYS WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER CUBA.

[gatorcane]

actually, I got the opposite from the disscussion...NHC CLEARLY stated that the GFS is "DUBIOUS". They do agree on a weakness, but it sounds like they are not ready to forecast a FL peninsula hit by way of eastern cuba and the Keys.

Yeah...

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS SOLUTION OF
BRINGING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ERNESTO TO SOUTH FLORIDA LOOKS
DUBIOUS...AS THE 500 MB CENTER STAYS WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER CUBA.

I would say I would be shocked if it hits South Florida. I really would be....

[Droop12]

Anybody remember Charley or Dennis? The current projected path looks very simliar. Almost identical to Dennis last year.

[Jim Cantore]

Just off of skeetobyte, not alot of agreement of these models

[BensonTCwatcher]

Hmmm, I still would not too worked up about the final track just yet. I would still be doing what I had to do to get ready GOMers. I thought this system might get pushed east of Jamaica ( I posted that yesterday) The ULL's have panned out as expected ( The anticyclone never really got going though) As result, the interaction with lan could also make a big difference in track. We still have an interesting 48 hours to go. After that, I'd say the media freak out will be full on.

[Praxus]

This track is bad news for Haiti, they typically have many deaths from mudslides when hurricanes or even tropicals storms hit them or come close like earnesto. Hopefully not this time.

[Bailey1777]

How many times. It is not a trend it is an extension of flawed models. WNW is WNW. Repositioning is not movement. There is still a ridge in place.

[ConvergenceZone]

actually, I got the opposite from the disscussion...NHC CLEARLY stated that the GFS is "DUBIOUS". They do agree on a weakness, but it sounds like they are not ready to forecast a FL peninsula hit by way of eastern cuba and the Keys.

but if the TUTT keeps pushing the CDO NE and the center relocates NE, the chances dramatically increase....the next 24 hours are critical for this system as far as track goes.

It doubt if it will relocate in that direction AGAIN. It could do just the opposite and relocate in the other direction...

[Brent]

actually, I got the opposite from the disscussion...NHC CLEARLY stated that the GFS is "DUBIOUS". They do agree on a weakness, but it sounds like they are not ready to forecast a FL peninsula hit by way of eastern cuba and the Keys.

Yeah...

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS SOLUTION OF
BRINGING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ERNESTO TO SOUTH FLORIDA LOOKS
DUBIOUS...AS THE 500 MB CENTER STAYS WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER CUBA.

I would say I would be shocked if it hits South Florida. I really would be....

Same here.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Just my opinion --

I think a landfall between Houma, LA and the Big Bend of FLA looks most likely.

[gatorcane]

What is this ridge everybody is talking about. Just look at the SAT pics, still looks like it is trying to creep NNW to me (at least the convection looks to be doing this).

There is some weakness Ernesto is seeing. I don't know where but there is something.

[HollynLA]

There is still a ridge in place.

I was also under the impression that the ridge would sort of protect the west coast of FL from Ernesto. Could it really plow through it? Doubtful. To my untrained eye, the track will probably be narrowed down to Lafayette to Appalachicola (sp?).