Cat 3 Entering The Gulf?

[tropicsgal05]

I just watched the tropical update with Dr. Steve Lyon's TWC, he mentioned the NHC says TS Ernesto maybe a cat 3 entering into the GOM>

[canegrl04]

If that happens,Ernesto could very well reach cat 4 status before landfall

[Josephine96]

I'm starting 2 get concerned this will be at least a 3, maybe a 4 when it makes landfall next week.. New Orleans, Galveston, Biloxi, Pascagoula, Pensacola, Tampa, wherever..

You name it.. they don't need a storm that big to go plowing through.. It might be a knockout punch to 1 of the devastated areas..

[crab_storm]

Tampa?

[miamicanes177]

katrina might have been the warning shot. Remember, it hit as cat 3 after undergoing rapid weakening. Ernesto might come and finish the job. I hope not.

[Josephine96]

Putting Tampa in there was just proving a point None of these beautiful coastal towns need a Cat 3, 4 knocking on their doors..

[crab_storm]

"saying prayers"

[HurryKane]

Putting Tampa in there was just proving a point None of these beautiful coastal towns need a Cat 3, 4 knocking on their doors..

Interesting you mentioned Tampa. I attend a national conference every year in November, and last year when they told us that the 2006 location would be Tampa, I asked what their plans were if Tampa were to be hit by a cane before November '06. They didn't seem to have any.

Yikes for all of us.

[Josephine96]

That is very concerning.. I didn't know that.. Tampa's beautiful.. I wanna move there by the beginning of the year.. I'd hope they'd have better hurricane preps..

[HurryKane]

I'm sure the city has plenty of plans in place I was referring to the planning committee for the conference. The committee is made up of members from all over the country and the conference is in a different place every year. I was just thinking that if Tampa (God forbid) were to get hit this year, it could make for an interesting logistics problem with 7-8,000 people who want to attend.

[bayoubebe]

Let the prayers begin.

Wherever your locale, you do NOT want to go through what we did with Katrina.

There's nothing more depressing than watching some of those highlights.

Remember, the death toll was in the 1000s. That's ALOT of human lives.

Please play it safe people, wherever you are.

It will be devastating if it hits La,MS, Ala, Fla...these states just cannot take much more.

The poor Beau Rivage is FINALLY due to grand re-open on Aug. 29.

BTW--I thought Katrina was a 4 when it made landfall, not a 3?

anything can happen, still several days away.....

[Deputy Van Halen]

I just watched the tropical update with Dr. Steve Lyon's TWC, he mentioned the NHC says TS Ernesto maybe a cat 3 entering into the GOM

The official "Wind speed probability table" has a 20% chance of it being a major 72 hours from now, which is around the time it is forecast to enter the gulf. Of course, that means 80% chance of NOT being a major.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... able?large

katrina might have been the warning shot. Remember, it hit as cat 3 after undergoing rapid weakening. Ernesto might come and finish the job. I hope not.

This "rapid weakening" seems pretty typical of Gulf hurricanes. I suppose this is a fact so taken for granted that it is rarely mentioned on this board. Almost every major gulf storm in modern history dropped at least one category, often two, prior to landfall: Katrina, Rita, Ivan, Opal, Bret, Dennis, Frederic, Carla, Beulah, Allen, Lili, Betsy.

As with everything, there are exceptions. Charley intensified prior to landfall, though Charley was atypical of this genre, spending only a small time on the fringes of the gulf. And Camille obviously lost little if any punch before coming ashore. Alicia and Audrey stayed around peak strength up to landfall, but were also atypical storms, as they started in the Gulf and so were just "getting started" when they hit land.

Maybe the real hurricane historians on this board, who know much more than I, can answer the question, has there ever been an example of a hurricane 1) making landfall on the Gulf coast from Brownsville to, say, Apalachicola, 2) originating outside the Gulf, and 3) intensifying significantly in the 24 hours prior to landfall?

[hurricanesfans27]

keep it heading towards Texas although I dont expect it. I have a bad feeling Ill be hoarding gas soon enough.

[aOl]

There won't be another Katrina unless it hits a major city... and the only real major city on the Gulf Coast is New Orleans. If a storm stronger than Katrina was to hit Pensacola for example, no one would care (nationally).