Texas...

[Sean in New Orleans]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


At this moment, it appears that Ernesto, will have little change in course for the entire ride and take the ride straight into Texas...unless something strange happens, this appears to be a system that will take a completely straight course, with little or no influence in direction. As always, things could change, but, this appears to be the atmospheric mood of this system...the main concern is strength....minimum Cat. 3, IMO.



*edited by Lindaloo/ added disclaimer

[dwg71]

At this moment, it appears that Ernesto, will have little change in course for the entire ride and take the ride straight into Texas...unless something strange happens, this appears to be a system that will take a completely straight course, with little or no influence in direction. As always, things could change, but, this appears to be the atmospheric mood of this system...the main concern is strength....minimum Cat. 3, IMO.

Absolutely no basis for this at this time, TX is as likely as Mexico, LA, or Pan handle. Too far out.

[Sean in New Orleans]

At this moment, it appears that Ernesto, will have little change in course for the entire ride and take the ride straight into Texas...unless something strange happens, this appears to be a system that will take a completely straight course, with little or no influence in direction. As always, things could change, but, this appears to be the atmospheric mood of this system...the main concern is strength....minimum Cat. 3, IMO.

Absolutely no basis for this at this time, TX is as likely as Mexico, LA, or Pan handle. Too far out.

You may likely be right...as stated this is the way it appears right now...I'm just watching the clouds, everywhere, as I do every year...we'll all find out soon enough....ask a few people about my prediction with Rita and Lake Charles, LA last year.......

[temujin]

If this thing really ramps up, it's gonna want to go poleward...

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Sean, you don't think the front that is supposed to make it down around our area Wed/Thurs. will have any affect on the track?

[Extremeweatherguy]

If this thing really ramps up, it's gonna want to go poleward...

it can't go through a ridge though, and a ridge is expected to be in the NE Gulf.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Sean, you don't think the front that is supposed to make it down around our area Wed/Thurs. will have any affect on the track?

It's the Northern GOM saviour, IMO. At this point, I think the system will ride underneath the trough and head West into Texas. The chance is there that the system will get caught into the trough and head East into Florida, but, I think the system will simply move South of the front and head straight into Texas. Man...things could totally change, but, this is the way things appear now, with the system weakening or maintaining strength for the next couple of days and then rebounding when it reaches the GOM.

[gulfcoastdave]

whats funny people start calling for landfall at this point and this point. Models will change and locations will change.Watch the storm and prepare. Many people along the gulfcoast are very gun shy. No need to alarm people who come here now and then to learn.......Be nice to see this stay at TS but we all know if it makes it into the gulf , the storm will probably be a cat 2 at least.

enjoying the tracking of the storm and be safe

[Sean in New Orleans]

whats funny people start calling for landfall at this point and this point. Models will change and locations will change.Watch the storm and prepare. Many people along the gulfcoast are very gun shy. No need to alarm people who come here now and then to learn.......Be nice to see this stay at TS but we all know if it makes it into the gulf , the storm will probably be a cat 2 at least.

enjoying the tracking of the storm and be safe

Actually, I think this system's track is fairly easy to call...I don't see much fluctuation or find this system to have many influencing factors. None of us know where it will make landfall, but, at this point, it's fairly easy to "predict," if you watch satellite, which is what we are all supposed to do....

[jasons2k]

Two things I'd like to add:

1) I distintly remember when Sean opened his thread least year and said "This is a Lake Charles storm." I blasted him pretty darn bad (as did most everyone else) and thought he was crazy. Sean laid out sound meteorological reasoning for his forecast but it was still cast aside. Well he was right.

BTW - Sean - in case you didn't catch my apology last year, here it is again. Sorry man!

2) The NHC track thus far is a beeline for TX. Of course one could argue "it's just a compromise track". Maybe so. But I noticed the GFDL now lines up nicely with it and a pro met posted earlier today the FSU superensemble goes to Texas. At this point, with this much uncertainty, it'd be hard to go against the general path of the NHC IMO.

I don't have access to the long-range NHC track that they have - but I'd bet at this time the indicated landfall is just an extension of the current path.

[Normandy]

I think Texas is the primary target, but where? Dont know.....point is, Houston/Galveston needs to be put on alert....because honestly this thing isn't going to die like lots of people are claiming it will.

[jwayne]

I think Texas is the primary target, but where? Dont know.....point is, Houston/Galveston needs to be put on alert....because honestly this thing isn't going to die like lots of people are claiming it will.

unless things change, I'll start kicking it into gear late tomorrow afternoon in terms of making preliminary plans.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think Texas is the primary target, but where? Dont know.....point is, Houston/Galveston needs to be put on alert....because honestly this thing isn't going to die like lots of people are claiming it will.

Yes, this weekend I will be shopping for supplies...just in case. I would advise all other Houstonions to get prepared early as well so we don't go through another Rita situation.

[Normandy]

^ I dont think u need to start preparing tom.....if you see that the forecast track is anywhere south of HOU/GAL then you might need to start preparing.

[Swimdude]

The second Houston/Galveston goes on alert, the rest of the media will go through the roof with the story - gas prices will be outrageously high... We'll have another Rita-situation, only worse. I'm sure all Houstonians remember that QUITE well.

I think we should wait another 36 hours before we put anyone on alert.

[LaBreeze]

If you will be able to even get gas.

[boca]

Yesterday I predicted a Beamont TX hit so far with this track I could be right on.

[HouTXmetro]

I'm going further East, Morgan City LA..... Texas will see a couple of outer rain bands. I could be wrong, just my Opinion.

[LaBreeze]

Watch for the expected front boca. We'll have to wait and see if it has any affect.

[mtm4319]

I'm going further East, Morgan City LA..... Texas will see a couple of outer rain bands. I could be wrong, just my Opinion.

That's the area I'm leaning toward right now... i.e., the only section of Louisiana that didn't get blasted by either Rita or Katrina.